Bought TSLA stock today

[Crissa]

The more news says the CEO is sinking the company, the more the company's stock will sink. Image and narrative over hard numbers.

-Crissa

 

[android04]

I put in a buy order for about $2000 worth of stock today (won't take effect until tomorrow). I plan on holding it for years along with some other shares of TSLA that I have.

 

[HaulingAss]

The more news says the CEO is sinking the company, the more the company's stock will sink. Image and narrative over hard numbers.

-Crissa

Yes, and that spells opportunity for savvy investors. Because the bigger the disparity between common perception and reality, the bigger the potential profit and the lower the risk.

Wall Street regularly orchestrates false narratives that take the share prices of good companies down further than they should ever go from recession alone so they can profit from their fake news. It's easy to do in a recession because fear and the unknowns run high. This has been going on for decades and yet people continue to fall for it. The ones who see through the misleading guidance, profit the most.

The same thing happened in spring of 2019, when I started building my position in TSLA. Tesla's success was obvious from graphing the trends of sales, revenues and the dropping costs of producing more cars. Which means the current situation is surprisingly analogous to that of early 2019.

 

[SolarWizard]

buy order went through at $109.87 (I have a weird thing about numbers ) I suspect today is a little punch up to close out books but I figure at most I have an 23% downside in short term but long big return. If im lucky enough that it goes to $90 ill put a quad motor CT in and likely just flip all my pre orders till I get my return instead of keeping the first as planned.

if it drops to $60 I probably skip buying one forever out of sheer spite ?

 

[charliemagpie]

IF it all doesn't go down the drain, but recovers and goes to humble plan, I have happily resigned myself to being satisfied with what I will have and not worry about the last dregs.

Buying the dip, I estimate I have been able to purchase 300 extra shares. This was a cherry on top.
If I had waited, I may have picked 200 more. Either way, it only affects an inheritance figure down the line. They had enough already.

My work is done. My purchased have finished. Hopefully 2023 is my last financial hurdle to jump through.

 

[Ogre]

A while back (pre-split) I said my budget for a Cybertruck was 69x the share price.

Split adjusted that means Tesla needs to release the Cybertruck for $25,000 or I’m in trouble.



Not really, it was arbitrary to being with, but shows how crazy it’s been over the past 18 months.

 

[Luke42]

I've made most of my money by buying great companies when the markets refused to value them for anything but a pittance. Tesla certainly qualifies as a great company, doing important and desirable things in an unusually efficient and effective manner.

Contrary to common fear, uncertainty and doubt articles demeaning Tesla any way they think they can, Tesla faces no real competitors. The biggest risks to Tesla are from powerful monied forces who want to slow Tesla down. These are the people and corporations who make money the old way, by polluting our only planet and selling poor value.

The reason I say Tesla has no real competitors is because the weak competitors they do have, have no ability to deliver real value. The current recession will highlight this fact. Recessions have a way of accelerating change. Disruption, like the ones driven by Tesla over the last decade, have a way of accelerating change. The reason recessions accelerate change is because it exposes those companies who are not, and cannot, offer good value. They go out of business or become shadows of their former selves.

Sure, GM likes to brag that they will bring 30 new EV's to market by 2025 but they have no ability to do so if you assume they are speaking of EV's that sell in volume, that consumers can actually buy. In other words, this is a bald-faced lie. They know cars have to be built in volume to be commercially viable (unless you are speaking of botique, high-priced brands like Ferrari, Bugatti, etc.) and GM has no ability to bring even 3 million EV's on the road by 2025 considering we are sitting on the cusp of 2023. They cannot even sell their two current EV's at high volume without losing even more money, the Bolt and the Hummer. These are not high volume cars nor are they in high demand because GM can't make them at a price point consumers find value in.

And Ford likes to brag they will be making 2 million EV's by 2026 but even that is a tall order considering they can't sell an EV at a gross profit now. Even Tesla was selling cars at a gross profit over a decade ago, in 2012, even if the company lost money overall due to low volumes and regular company overhead like R&D, administrative expenses, etc. The fact is, by ramping to higher production levels, while keeping a lid on costs, they are able to sell all of their models with industry leading profit margins.

There are a few small companies who stand a chance of being Tesla's competition in the future, companies who are not as bloated and fat and who are good at copying Tesla's innovations and bringing them to market relatively quickly (about 5-6 years after Tesla innovated the ideas). However, even companies in this category, companies like BYD, bring cars to market that are noticeably inferior to Tesla in fundamental ways (like strength to weight, range, efficiency, etc) and at a cost to produce that is higher than Tesla's cost to produce. This means they still have a lot of fundemental catching up to do before they can be considered true competition. Chances are, they will always be technology copy-cats bringing yesterday's Tesla to market today.

Too many people make the mistake of judging competition by looking at the MSRP and comparing products without realizing that real competition is determined, not by current MSRP, but by the cost of production. Because the low-cost producer can simply lower their prices to offer more value to the consumer while the higher cost producer would go bankrupt if they did so. Tesla has that pricing power over every other producer and, if this recession continues to deepen, you will see Tesla unlock that hidden advantage.

As long as most of the vehicle market is comprised of ICE vehicles, Tesla has no true competition. And, as long as Tesla maintians their rather large lead in terms of having a low cost to produce, and low corporate overhead, they have no true competition in the EV space.

Tesla's biggest competition is themselves. You read that correctly. As Tesla ramps production ever higher, they know they will have to lower prices to continue to sell everyone they can make. And they are willing to do this. Most companies in Tesla's position would slow production growth to maintain obscenely high margins but Tesla's goal is not to make as much money as possible at the expense of everything else, it's to transition the world to sustainable energy as quickly as possible.

Ironically, this is more dangerous to Tesla's "competitors" than if Tesla had profit as their number one motive because it forces them to bring more value to their customers than if Tesla decided to milk high margins. Tesla's business strategy will lower EV prices faster and with more certainty than if they had real competitors and Tesla just wanted to make the most amount of profit at the expense of increasing volumes. That's why I say Tesla's biggest competitor is themselves as they are single-mindedly focused on increasing prodiuction volumes as quickly as physically possible, even through a potential recession.

And that is very good news for autobuyers. Much better than the situation we have had for decades where auto makers grew fat and lazy with their marketshare as the cost of a new car ballooned to unaffordable levels as huge and inefficient corporations added layers of middle-management holding meaningless meanings on how to better market their cars to consumers to increase their marketshare by 1%. Tesla is blowing that fallacy wide open!

This is all true, but it's an evaluation of Tesla-the-business - and not TSLA-the-stock.

For a lot of business-stock pairs, this distinction isn't important. But it is important for Tesla/TSLA.

TSLA-the-stock is a separate question, because the price of the stock has been inflated to dozens of times the value of Tesla-the-business by Musk's personal brand.

TSLA-the-stock's price has almost nothing to do with Tesla-the-business, and the stock price can go down a long way from today's $110-ish price before it hits the price-floor established by Tesla-the-business.

I'm a big fan of Tesla-the-business, and I feel that it can grow to become one of the American Big Three automakers - especially since they harvested cash via an FPO during the TSLA-the-stock bubble. But TSLA-the-stock's price will have to shrink to a fraction of what it is today to become comparable to any of the Big Three -- while the Tesla-the-business will need to grow to several times its current size. That adjustment is going to mess with a lot of people's heads, and stock-portfolios.

 

[HaulingAss]

This is all true, but it's an evaluation of Tesla-the-business - and not TSLA-the-stock.

For a lot of business-stock pairs, this distinction isn't important. But it is important for Tesla/TSLA.

TSLA-the-stock is a separate question, because the price of the stock has been inflated to dozens of times the value of Tesla-the-business by Musk's personal brand.

TSLA-the-stock's price has almost nothing to do with Tesla-the-business, and the stock price can go down a long way from today's $110-ish price before it hits the price-floor established by Tesla-the-business.

I'm a big fan of Tesla-the-business, and I feel that it can grow to become one of the American Big Three automakers - especially since they harvested cash via an FPO during the TSLA-the-stock bubble. But TSLA-the-stock's price will have to shrink to a fraction of what it is today to become comparable to any of the Big Three -- while the Tesla-the-business will need to grow to several times its current size. That adjustment is going to mess with a lot of people's heads, and stock-portfolios.

I'll leave you to your valuation models while I keep using the same core valuation methods I've been actively using for over 30 years. Maybe we can meet back here in 2030 and compare results!

 

[Ogre]

TSLA-the-stock's price has almost nothing to do with Tesla-the-business, and the stock price can go down a long way from today's $110-ish price before it hits the price-floor established by Tesla-the-business.

What? So if Tesla has a blow out 4th quarter it means nothing?

Whatever you are smoking… keep me away from it.

 

[charliemagpie]

This is all true, but it's an evaluation of Tesla-the-business - and not TSLA-the-stock.

For a lot of business-stock pairs, this distinction isn't important. But it is important for Tesla/TSLA.

TSLA-the-stock is a separate question, because the price of the stock has been inflated to dozens of times the value of Tesla-the-business by Musk's personal brand.

TSLA-the-stock's price has almost nothing to do with Tesla-the-business, and the stock price can go down a long way from today's $110-ish price before it hits the price-floor established by Tesla-the-business.

I'm a big fan of Tesla-the-business, and I feel that it can grow to become one of the American Big Three automakers - especially since they harvested cash via an FPO during the TSLA-the-stock bubble. But TSLA-the-stock's price will have to shrink to a fraction of what it is today to become comparable to any of the Big Three -- while the Tesla-the-business will need to grow to several times its current size. That adjustment is going to mess with a lot of people's heads, and stock-portfolios.

This is true if we are having a coffee and discussing the last 3 months.

Sometimes there's a recession. But that sorts out too.

In 3 years, when Tesla is making 100 Billion net per year, public sentiment has little to do with today's price and the price it will be then.

Performance wins the arm wrestle.

People get over it. Case in point : We buy a lot of VW and Toyota

 

[Luke42]

This is true if we are having a coffee and discussing the last 3 months.

Sometimes there's a recession. But that sorts out too.

In 3 years, when Tesla is making 100 Billion net per year, public sentiment has little to do with today's price and the price it will be then.

Performance wins the arm wrestle.

People get over it. Case in point : We buy a lot of VW and Toyota

I predict that Tesla-the-business will grow (with some bumps and drama along the way), while TSLA-the-stock collapses.

The cars are great, and they'll sell a lot of them. They already do. Also, Tesla-the-business raised capital (via stock offerings) during the TSLA stock bubble, which was a smart thing for them to do (assuming Musk didn't lose it on cryptocurrency). Tesla-the-business is doing all of the right things.

The stock price is driven by Elon Musk's collapsing personal brand. The stock price can't help but come back in line with comparable car companies.

But this is OK! Tesla's mission to decarbonize transportation, and the cars, are what's important.

P.S. It's easy for me to say this. I took my profits on TSLA-the-stock when I figured this out in 2021. I'm not a bagholder.

 

[charliemagpie]

The stock comes back to comparable profits

 

[Quicksilver]

Bought 5 more shares this morning.
Anybody want to buy a firetruck?

 

[Crissa]

The stock price is driven by Elon Musk's collapsing personal brand. The stock price can't help but come back in line with comparable car companies.

Very little of the stock drop is due to him being a troll, despite the narrative.

-Crissa

 

[Ehninger1212]

Very little of the stock drop is due to him being a troll, despite the narrative.

-Crissa

The Media loves to sensationalize Elon and Tesla. But the reality is this is a broad market sell off. Apple also just hit a 52 week low.