plastic products are already made with vegetable derived oils and electric planes are already in design... and the military has already stated EV is superior for their applications, so yes oil and gas are on their way out.
The military's petroleum supply chain can be really expensive in some situations.
Hmmm, (sometime in the future) how about us people that already have a garage or driveway and paid off our Cybertruck 5 years ago. It has 500,000 miles left in it? How much are we spending a month to have it drive us around in FSD that we purchased with the vehicle? My solar panels are paid for and I have basically free energy. Why would I want to get rid of my Cybertruck?
I believe it was a CNBC video on youtube that I watched that said that aircrafts (I.e: passenger airplanes) waste fuel just to land the jet. That's literally tons of gallons of fuel wasted and dissolved into the atmosphere!
GnarlyDudeLive - I agree with you. If I remember correctly, the Rethink chaps estimated that the average cost to own an ICE is $15k per year, and they estimate autonomous EV TaaS will cost $1-2k per year. So, one tenth of the cost. In studying disruptive technologies, they claim that there has NEVER been a new technology that reduced costs by 90% that was not adopted rapidly. In the case of the horse and buggy, they use an image of NY city with horses packed head to tail, and the same shot 12 years later with Model T's packed bumper-to-bumper. The catalyst was cost; 90% cheaper to operate a Model T than feed and care for the horse.
The TaaS will take much longer to arrive in more rural areas, and for truly rural Taas won't ever work. These folks will need CT's or at least EV's, because gas stations and mechanics will be increasingly fewer and farther apart. You'll start to see them disappearing in major cities first, and it will spread our to the burbs from there. Most people I know who live in NY City keep their only autos at their country homes and use UBER/LYFT in town, so it's already getting baked-in.
BTW I see parts of that business model in the near future also. I think the early markets should be urban areas with lot's of tourism and rental cars. The rental car business will be the first to go. Why pay a ton of money for a rental and daily parking fee at your hotel in some strange city when you can pay as you go with automated vehicle that's dialed into all your possible needs. Tesla with its connected cars will make a killing. The businesses will pay Tesla to be referred. Probably Tesla will have your buying habits and itinerary on your profile from your phone, before the vehicle even arrives.
I’m with you on all but the not needing a garage. With vehicles out of the way, garages will open up for creative uses. I’m still going to want my garage. But I must admit that most garages will become storage rooms for junk no one uses.
Oh no, I like you will fight tooth and nail to keep my own Cybertruck but the transaction will still occur as new drivers (16 year olds) start driving everyday and the older folk that need transportation (safely). Soon to follow will be people that are in need of a replacement and see the cost savings. Won't take long before it ends up that way. I personally don't care, I want the truck regardless and paid for the FSD as well at 7k so ideally futureproof.
Are you suggesting people vehicles are "reasonable" people? They are not. I am quite serious. Reasonable purchases would not include sports cars, luxury sedans, or stainless steel 80K trucks. Talk to someone who still loves driving their '62 Bug or a F250 grocery getter.
Thou dost subscript too much!
there will be laggards but the increased cost of gas and fewer gas stations selling it will push the inevitable EV take over.
