How many shares of Tesla do you own?

[Crissa]

Zero. Its a speculative stock in my opinion... it might be possible to buy/sell and make a profit, but the EV landscape is far from settled.

That's what made it a growth stock. Once it's settled, the growth potential will be gone.

-Crissa

 

[HaulingAss]

Zero. Its a speculative stock in my opinion... it might be possible to buy/sell and make a profit, but the EV landscape is far from settled.

Yes, it's true that TSLA is a speculative investment. It's also true that all stocks are speculative investments. The goal is to invest in stocks that you believe have a good risk/reward ratio.

If you meant to say that you think the risk/reward ratio is not very favorable, then I would suggest you don't understand the company and their prospects. That's ok, that's what makes a market. The ones who bet correctly on the future are the ones who get the financial benefits.

As an investor who has a lifetime of successes under my belt, I can tell you that a long-term investment opportunity that is this good rarely presents itself with as much clarity as I think TSLA does. While a number of mainstream brokerage analysts have declared TSLA to be "obviously" over-valued, I would suggest they are oblivious to the forces that have been set in motion and just how profitable Tesla is likely to become over the next several years. Many of the analysists that thought it was over-valued at less than 10% of it's current price have recently re-appraised the company's prospects and published near-term price targets above the current price. IMO, these are the analysts that understand, at least in part, what is happening within the company.

But don't listen to brokerage analysts, they are often wrong. Do your own research and rely on your own vision to make your own decisions. If you don't have good vision, you will not be turning a modest amount of money into millions of dollars. The magic ingredient is good vision followed by time and patience. I believe most people, even TSLA bulls, will be shocked at how valuable the company becomes over the next 5 years. I will be quite disappointed if it only doubles in that time and I think 8X is more likely than 2X.

 

[cyberda]

Yes, it's true that TSLA is a speculative investment. It's also true that all stocks are speculative investments. The goal is to invest in stocks that you believe have a good risk/reward ratio.

If you meant to say that you think the risk/reward ratio is not very favorable, then I would suggest you don't understand the company and their prospects. That's ok, that's what makes a market. The ones who bet correctly on the future are the ones who get the financial benefits.

As an investor who has a lifetime of successes under my belt, I can tell you that a long-term investment opportunity that is this good rarely presents itself with as much clarity as I think TSLA does. While a number of mainstream brokerage analysts have declared TSLA to be "obviously" over-valued, I would suggest they are oblivious to the forces that have been set in motion and just how profitable Tesla is likely to become over the next several years. Many of the analysists that thought it was over-valued at less than 10% of it's current price have recently re-appraised the company's prospects and published near-term price targets above the current price. IMO, these are the analysts that understand, at least in part, what is happening within the company.

But don't listen to brokerage analysts, they are often wrong. Do your own research and rely on your own vision to make your own decisions. If you don't have good vision, you will not be turning a modest amount of money into millions of dollars. The magic ingredient is good vision followed by time and patience. I believe most people, even TSLA bulls, will be shocked at how valuable the company becomes over the next 5 years. I will be quite disappointed if it only doubles in that time and I think 8X is more likely than 2X.

Tesla has and continues to make interesting vehicles (CT of course) however I think Teslas' real archilles heel will be parts and service. They do not have the infrastructure to manage the service side. I live in a massive urban/suburban area (~6 million ppl) there are 2 Tesla service centres within an hour drive. 2! And its been that way for at least 3 years.
VW, Volvo, Ford, Chevy.... all coming into the game with established locations and technicians everywhere. I just don't believe Tesla's stock value will continue to shine thru this. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think this will come home to roost on the stock price and I'm not willing to risk real money on that.

I reserved CT in Jan 20... I think my reservation was mid 400k approx? My projection based on a production similar to MY volumes had it in production sometime this year. They are still tinkering with the design! Its clear it will be at least 2024-25 before my number comes up.

 

[Crissa]

EVs require far, far less maintenance and repair than traditional ICE models. You can't compare.

And most dealerships are ill-equipped to repair them.

So no, the other brands probably have fewer techs trained to deal with them.

There are only a couple service dealerships trained to deal with my Mazda in the metro area, so what whoop is it that there's only two Tesla service centers?

-Crissa

 

[Cybertruckee]

Been owning and trading Tesla stocks since that I will be able to pay for my Cybertruck in cash should their rates on my purchase is off to my liking.

Now I'm with the group of stockholders who is voting for Elon to stop yapping and just build the damn trucks -- and stop being #ApartheidElon and implement the inclusion and diversity reporting that we the stockholders voted on and won.

And yes, my Tesla portfolio is on the red -- correction territory.

 

[cyberda]

EVs require far, far less maintenance and repair than traditional ICE models. You can't compare.

And most dealerships are ill-equipped to repair them.

So no, the other brands probably have fewer techs trained to deal with them.

There are only a couple service dealerships trained to deal with my Mazda in the metro area, so what whoop is it that there's only two Tesla service centers?

-Crissa

Well that's true.. EVs do need far less regular maintenance!
So if everything is sorted you probably only need an annual visit. Its likely to be software issues or physical repairs over common stuff like brakes/rotors/tires. So what do you do when its throwing some strange error code? I have 12 Mazda dealerships closer than the 2 Tesla centres.... and it would be surprising if Mazda aren't able to repair the EVs they produce. It just seems like Tesla is not backfilling that capacity to me.

I'm likely to be in a rural area much further away by the time CT starts rolling out of the factory. It does give me pause.

 

[HaulingAss]

Tesla has and continues to make interesting vehicles (CT of course) however I think Teslas' real archilles heel will be parts and service. They do not have the infrastructure to manage the service side. I live in a massive urban/suburban area (~6 million ppl) there are 2 Tesla service centres within an hour drive. 2! And its been that way for at least 3 years.
VW, Volvo, Ford, Chevy.... all coming into the game with established locations and technicians everywhere. I just don't believe Tesla's stock value will continue to shine thru this. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think this will come home to roost on the stock price and I'm not willing to risk real money on that.

I reserved CT in Jan 20... I think my reservation was mid 400k approx? My projection based on a production similar to MY volumes had it in production sometime this year. They are still tinkering with the design! Its clear it will be at least 2024-25 before my number comes up.

Yes, plenty of ex-TSLA shareholders have made the mistake of selling their investment because they were worried TSLA couldn't service the vehicles adequately and this would (obviously) result in people becoming disillusioned with the brand and not want to buy the cars. In other words, Tesla would have a demand problem. This worry over ability to service started to gain steam in 2018, four long years ago. But, having owned two Tesla for almost 4 years each I can tell you that Tesla has no problem servicing the vehicles. People who think that tend to forget that Tesla is connected to every car that is still in service and they know when one of them is having a serious problem because the cars are self-aware.

Tesla's goal is to produce cars that are convenient and cost-effective to own. I live an hour on the Interstate from the nearest Tesla Service Center and I can tell you they have succeeded brilliantly. What other car company has mobile service technicians that will come right to your house or place of work to fix problems not requiring a lift? They can even rotate tires right in your driveway with no time required of you to drop your car off at a dealership, check-in, get a loaner, return it, etc. At 58 years old I've owned a number of new cars other than Tesla's and none of them, not one, was as easy to own and get serviced as a Tesla. Going back to Ford, Mazda, Toyota, Volvo or any of the others would be huge step backwards for us. So, why do you think this will be a problem when the real problem lies with legacy companies who customers hate?

Tesla is not going to lose customers over servicing, they will continue to gain customers who are fed up with the dealerships and all their despicable business tactics to extract more money from you. My Tesla Service Center tells me my car is fine, don't worry, we will let you know when it needs service, no charge, go home, be happy.

How do I know I am not unique, and that this experience applies more broadly over the entire body of Tesla owners? I'll let you in on a little secret:

Every year a publication that is not particularly friendly to the Tesla brand, Consumer Reports, does a survey of the owners of various brands of cars. There are a lot of categories covered but one of the most important is Customer Satisfaction. Basically, would you buy this car again? Tesla crushes it every year. There is no demand problem even though people have been yapping (falsely) about how much worse the service is than other legacy brands. It's basically a lie.

No, Tesla is not pissing off their customers, they are growing their customer base faster than any other carmaker in the world. But the facts don't stop bad investors, investors who don't know how to tell facts from lies and exaggerations, from making decisions based on fake and exaggerated news. I personally know more than a few people who would be holding millions of dollars worth of TSLA shares if they hadn't sold them all before they appreciated more than a small amount based upon fears and doubts about the quality of the cars and service. Some of them bought back a year or two later after realizing what a colossal mistake they had made.

In order to make "real" money, it is necessary to risk at least a little bit of money. The key is to use time to your advantage. Tesla will continue to grow and improve at a rate faster than legacy auto because Tesla is built upon more productive, more noble principles. Question everything and try to be less wrong. Use science and data to effect constant improvement. Treat people fairly but there is no need to kiss their butts. Don't change the car every year just to make it different but change it every week if it can be improved.

Thinking Tesla can't service their cars properly is silly. Failing car companies don't consistently get the highest customer satisfaction ratings four years in a row. You can learn more here:

Tesla Crushed Toyota in This Consumer Reports Satisfaction Feud (motorbiscuit.com)

Tesla #1 Again — Named Top Auto Brand In 2 Consumer Reports Surveys - CleanTechnica

Tesla takes top prize in JD Power's first EV ownership study (teslarati.com)

Why Tesla has the most loyal customers (usatoday.com)


Keep in mind that these surveys are not done by companies paid by Tesla, often they would like nothing more for Tesla to crash and burn. Many of them actually represent legacy auto because that's where their operating revenue comes from.

So, yeah, worry about servicing and demand when legacy auto is the problem child and Tesla is the shining star. Makes a ton of sense.

My money is on Tesla becoming the most valuable company in the world sometime between 2026 and 2028 and their products will not be limited to autos. Batteries are key to over-the-road heavy transport, energy, heating and cooling, utility power and grid stability, solar energy, the future is coming and it's cleaner, greener and cheaper than the world it replaces. Watch and weep if you are not invested. Watch and celebrate if you are.

Actually, you can watch and celebrate even if not invested. Because what human would not celebrate a future with cleaner, greener and cheaper energy and transport?

 

[Cybertruckee]

My Canadian brother, a software engineer, is a true believer.

He said the true future of Tesla is it's global accumulated driving data base and a perfected autopilot software which they can monetize.

Hence, the ad nauseam debate among stock analyst as to whether to classify Tesla as a tech rather than an auto company.

 

[Crissa]

I can get Mazda codes read anywhere there's a machine to read ODBII codes. I don't need a dealership. That's where Tesla breaks down.

I have 12 Mazda dealerships closer than the 2 Tesla centres.... and it would be surprising if Mazda aren't able to repair the EVs they produce. It just seems like Tesla is not backfilling that capacity to me.

You have the densest collection of Mazda dealers on the continent. How many techs do each of those dealers have, anyhow? They're not required to keep a full-time tech. So does it matter if there's two locations with a dozen techs or twelve locations that share six?

-Crissa

 

[cyberda]

I can get Mazda codes read anywhere there's a machine to read ODBII codes. I don't need a dealership. That's where Tesla breaks down.


You have the densest collection of Mazda dealers on the continent. How many techs do each of those dealers have, anyhow? They're not required to keep a full-time tech. So do it matter if there's two locations with a dozen techs or twelve locations that share six?

-Crissa

20 toyota dealerships... 12 Ford in the same radius, etc. Plus all the regular garages that can get parts from them (assuming they start repairing EVs too). Of course Tesla repairs could be done by independents too, but the playing field tips in favor of the legacy mfgs I think. Nobody really knows how its going to shake out, Tesla has a battle on its hands thats for sure.

 

[TechOps]

The great thing about TSLA stock is how widely misunderstood it is, partially due to an injection of FUD by the traditional OEMs. This presents an enormous opportunity for retail investors who are willing to do their own research to understand the company. Much of the hard lifting for that research is already done for you by a collection of people on TMC and Youtube.

I propose that any open minded person who spends one hour a day for a month watching:

• Tesla Daily,
• The Tesla Economist,
• The Limiting Factor,
• Ryan Shaw,
• Dave Lee on Investing, and
• BestInTesla

will be better informed than over 90% of the institutional analysts that cover the stock.

While the big run up has happened so the opportunity for 100x returns in the stock may no longer be there, there is still a tremendous amount of misunderstanding and, frankly, extreme underestimation of the scope of what's about to happen in the next 2-3 years for Tesla deliveries and revenue. Barring any black swan events, this is going to turn into a cash machine the likes of which are extremely rare. Some of that may be priced into the stock, but much of it probably still is not.

The awesome thing is that the opportunity to take advantage of information asymmetry is right there in front of anyone who wants to spend a modest amount of time learning about what's really happening and about to happen inside the company.

 

[ReddykwRun]

Years ago, just after the Roadster came out, I had a conversation with a gentlemen that had just purchased a brand new Tesla Roadster. I looked at it and was impressed but at the time I was far from needing a new car. He advised me to NOT save my money up to purchase a Tesla but to put my money into TSLA stock instead, I followed his advise. My Honda is still purring along and my TSLA holdings have grown exponentially. Glad for that chance meeting. Patiently waiting for my Cybertruck but I won't use the stock. The way I see it, if you plant trees on your property and harvest them at 10 foot you will never get to see that 100 foot view.

 

[Bill906]

Buy low sell high

I always get that backwards. I bought $TSLA at $2000/share, and now it’s under $1000/share.

 

[MEDICALJMP]

Yes, plenty of ex-TSLA shareholders have made the mistake of selling their investment because they were worried TSLA couldn't service the vehicles adequately and this would (obviously) result in people becoming disillusioned with the brand and not want to buy the cars. In other words, Tesla would have a demand problem. This worry over ability to service started to gain steam in 2018, four long years ago. But, having owned two Tesla for almost 4 years each I can tell you that Tesla has no problem servicing the vehicles. People who think that tend to forget that Tesla is connected to every car that is still in service and they know when one of them is having a serious problem because the cars are self-aware.

Tesla's goal is to produce cars that are convenient and cost-effective to own. I live an hour on the Interstate from the nearest Tesla Service Center and I can tell you they have succeeded brilliantly. What other car company has mobile service technicians that will come right to your house or place of work to fix problems not requiring a lift? They can even rotate tires right in your driveway with no time required of you to drop your car off at a dealership, check-in, get a loaner, return it, etc. At 58 years old I've owned a number of new cars other than Tesla's and none of them, not one, was as easy to own and get serviced as a Tesla. Going back to Ford, Mazda, Toyota, Volvo or

Tesla is not going to lose customers over servicing....

I will dispute your assertion of 'no service problem' with some very public examples: YouTube channels Rich Rebuilds, E For Electric, and Now You Know have all spoken multiple times of major service issues. Each host has their own stories of outright bad Tesla service and those of multiple others who have divested themselves of their Tesla cars and turned to other makers or back to ICE. Rich and Alex both sold their Teslas.

Zac and Jessie of Now You Know posted a very telling show this week of multiple people with horror stories of Tesla Service Hell. These are Tesla Fanbois who are trying to seriously point out to Elon/Tesla that there is a problem that cannot be OTA updated out. Problems like brakes not being installed on the car at the factory and then having the service people deny anything is wrong with the vehicle. Having to drive 2 or 3 states away to get service. Other issues.

My state does not have a service center. Luckily for me there is a new one 25 miles from my home in another state. Great for me, but not for anyone outside my metro area. Those Tesla owners with problems have to drive to Denver, Kansas City or elsewhere. Not easy, convenient or a way to build customer loyalty.

Some if this can be fixed by the rolling out new service centers. Sometimes it needs a change of protectionist laws that prevent online car sales (Texas, Michigan, New York, Nebraska....). Other changes must come from a change of culture within the company.. Bad service will kill like cancer.

I'm buying my Cybertruck, hold shares of the company and think things can get better with service even if it truly is great. Improvements can come from even the best run customer service organizations.

Take a look at the Now You Know show and maybe you will change your mind or open your eyes.

 

[HaulingAss]

I will dispute your assertion of 'no service problem' with some very public examples: YouTube channels Rich Rebuilds, E For Electric, and Now You Know have all spoken multiple times of major service issues. Each host has their own stories of outright bad Tesla service and those of multiple others who have divested themselves of their Tesla cars and turned to other makers or back to ICE. Rich and Alex both sold their Teslas.

Zac and Jessie of Now You Know posted a very telling show this week of multiple people with horror stories of Tesla Service Hell. These are Tesla Fanbois who are trying to seriously point out to Elon/Tesla that there is a problem that cannot be OTA updated out. Problems like brakes not being installed on the car at the factory and then having the service people deny anything is wrong with the vehicle. Having to drive 2 or 3 states away to get service. Other issues.

My state does not have a service center. Luckily for me there is a new one 25 miles from my home in another state. Great for me, but not for anyone outside my metro area. Those Tesla owners with problems have to drive to Denver, Kansas City or elsewhere. Not easy, convenient or a way to build customer loyalty.

Some if this can be fixed by the rolling out new service centers. Sometimes it needs a change of protectionist laws that prevent online car sales (Texas, Michigan, New York, Nebraska....). Other changes must come from a change of culture within the company.. Bad service will kill like cancer.

I'm buying my Cybertruck, hold shares of the company and think things can get better with service even if it truly is great. Improvements can come from even the best run customer service organizations.

Take a look at the Now You Know show and maybe you will change your mind or open your eyes.

Certainly, there exist valid and true examples of Tesla Service problems people have had. That's true of every automobile brand out there. Not even Ford, GM, VW, or Toyota are immune to this.

I was taking issue with the characterization that Tesla service issues threaten the success of the company. And that is easily disproven by looking at the most recent customer satisfaction surveys done by independent auto industry groups. Tesla always has the highest customer satisfaction rating and the highest rating for most likely to buy again. That proves that Tesla's problems do not rise above that of ather automakers in any manner that threatens the brand. The numbers don't lie.

As to a lack of Tesla Service Centers in your state of Nebraska, I recommend you take that up with your elected legislators, not Tesla. It is illegal for Tesla to operate (sell and service cars) in your state. That's not Tesla's fault. In fact, Tesla announced the intention to open a sales and service center in Omaha almost a decade ago but the laws were used against them to prevent it.

Tesla is always expanding their service network and the location decisions are data driven. That means new service centers are opened in unserved areas with the highest concentrations of Tesla ownership. Tesla has less than 2% market share currently so it's no surprise that a small startup doesn't have as many service centers as brands with 15%-20% market share. But make no mistake, Tesla will keep expanding sales and service centers and the value they offer over traditional auto manufacturers and their greedy dealership networks will be a huge tailwind as they pass up Ford and GM in marketshare. I could tell you so many service nightmare stories about legacy auto dealerships that it would make your head spin. That's why Tesla, warts and all, comes out smelling so sweet in customer satisfaction ratings and likelihood of repurchasing the same brand.

Tesla is the fastest growing car brand by far even though they spend zero on advertising vs. the billions of dollars other brands spend to convince you to put your trust (and dollars) with them. That's right, you have to pay for those ads when you do business with legacy auto.