Delivery dates of CT and Cybertruck Van

[Firetruck41]

I have seen reports that there will be a limited production of the CT in 2022, sorry. ramping up in the 3rd or possibly 4th quarter but extremely low volume. Full production ramping up in 2023 with a little over 100,000 units for the year. What is more fascinating, it looks like the CT will have a useful little brother, a van. Production due 2024, aka Cybertruck Van. Don't believe me? Watch this play out, I absolutely trust my sources. I am from Detroit and my family goes back to the Studebaker Corporation days and my grandfather was with Henry Ford back office and worked in the patent office. I live exactly 1/2 mile from the Henry Ford Estate on Lakeshore Dr, Grosse Pointe Shores, MI. My CT order number is (12-3-19).

ORDER NUMBER RN113103515

Unfortunately your close connections to Legacy Automotive reduces your credibility. ?

 

[John Forde]

Please post all deets about the van. Here are some:

 

[Ed Harris]

And I thought I threw some crazy assumptions in the wind?!

The statistics I stated in my original statement are projected numbers from a spreadsheet I was given by an extremely reliable source. Should I get more in the months to come, I will be glad to update it. In the meantime has anyone before me spoken about a van, utility vehicle, or any of the such with an actual prediction of dates of production? Before you answer, post your sources, not hearsay.
Not sure which side of the fence you sit on but I enjoy finding details about a revolutionary product that was finally put into full production merging old ideas with today's technology.
How do you think the sources out there predict the production numbers out there and get it wrong almost every time. Think about what I said. Also, how does the supply chain know exactly to produce a certain number of door handles, tires, headliners, etc?
I am not a crystal ball reader, but I do understand spreadsheets and production forecasts for suppliers.
If you do not want me to post my little tidbits of info I find out about the CT, fine. I will not be back.
On the other hand, if the information (crazy assumptions) is not factual I will openly apologize, will you?
I have no intentions to pass on trade secrets.
Peace be with you this Christmas season and may all your New Year wishes come true.

 

[Ogre]

Not my render but would place an order for two units, price point dependant.

I'm trying to get my head around that... is it a short Cybertruck? If you were doing a van wouldn't you want it to be about the length of the Cybertruck but boxier? That looks more like a CyberTahoe. It would probably be popular but would probably want the back to extend more and add a bit of height.

 

[MiguelAznar]

With this design, FSD would need to know to avoid all underpasses with less than 20’ of clearance. Might need more batteries to route around underpasses and tunnels and tollbooths. And more batteries to keep a low center of gravity to avoid tipping over ?

 

[John K]

I'm trying to get my head around that... is it a short Cybertruck? If you were doing a van wouldn't you want it to be about the length of the Cybertruck but boxier? That looks more like a CyberTahoe. It would probably be popular but would probably want the back to extend more and add a bit of height.

More of an SUV over a van. I would want it for wife and son with 3mm SS and FSD.

 

[Ogre]

The statistics I stated in my original statement are projected numbers from a spreadsheet I was given by an extremely reliable source. Should I get more in the months to come, I will be glad to update it. In the meantime has anyone before me spoken about a van, utility vehicle, or any of the such with an actual prediction of dates of production? Before you answer, post your sources, not hearsay.

I don't think you need a source to understand that until they ship the Cybertruck in volume, the chance of derivative vehicles is pretty much zero. It takes about 12 months for Tesla to go from first vehicles out the door to full production, then they usually squeeze out production increases during the 12 months after that. Since we're still 9 months from initial production or more, that means none of this is going to come down the pike for at least 3 years.

 

[Ogre]

Please post all deets about the van. Here are some:

The design of the Cybertruck is based on the ease of manufacturing and structural aspects.

I don't think any of these designs are sketched with those thoughts in mind at all.

 

[Ed Harris]

I don't think you need a source to understand that until they ship the Cybertruck in volume, the chance of derivative vehicles is pretty much zero. It takes about 12 months for Tesla to go from first vehicles out the door to full production, then they usually squeeze out production increases during the 12 months after that. Since we're still 9 months from initial production or more, that means none of this is going to come down the pike for at least 3 years.

Exactly which is why I said or implied that there will be no meaningful production in 2022, some but nothing meaningful. 2023 according to my chart shows 30K RWD models and 71K AWD models. Then ramping up in 2024 to 47K & 110K respectively.
This is all pre-planning and obviously subject to change but it seems that everyone is gearing up to meet this time schedule.
I know all about the rumor of eliminating the RWD version but my chart explicitly states RWD, go figure.

 

[charliemagpie]

I predict 250,000 production of CT in 2023, reaching full capacity of 500,000 (10,000 per week) in early 2024.

Restriction is casting. A press can cast 350,000 per year...therefore, 2 would be needed to maintain this rate. (front and back) We would need a 3rd press to bring production around 500,000.

 

[Ogre]

What if Teslas van is their $25k car?

it could happen, Tesla‘s $25k car is being designed in China for Chinese markets.

 

[Love2Cyber]

The statistics I stated in my original statement are projected numbers from a spreadsheet I was given by an extremely reliable source. Should I get more in the months to come, I will be glad to update it. In the meantime has anyone before me spoken about a van, utility vehicle, or any of the such with an actual prediction of dates of production? Before you answer, post your sources, not hearsay.
Not sure which side of the fence you sit on but I enjoy finding details about a revolutionary product that was finally put into full production merging old ideas with today's technology.
How do you think the sources out there predict the production numbers out there and get it wrong almost every time. Think about what I said. Also, how does the supply chain know exactly to produce a certain number of door handles, tires, headliners, etc?
I am not a crystal ball reader, but I do understand spreadsheets and production forecasts for suppliers.
If you do not want me to post my little tidbits of info I find out about the CT, fine. I will not be back.
On the other hand, if the information (crazy assumptions) is not factual I will openly apologize, will you?
I have no intentions to pass on trade secrets.
Peace be with you this Christmas season and may all your New Year wishes come true.

Thanks for sharing your knowledge. I lead an intelligence function - and have a sense that you're probably pretty accurate. Funny to see how many people think that connections to traditional are a fault - the auto industry has been one of the biggest at investing in and leveraging competitive intelligence. Like pharma - long development cycles and massive returns from breakthroughs. It's been funny to watch how traditional players have created a moat around Tesla and are currently capitalizing on what they spend so much to incubate... Anyway - thanks again for sharing intel.

 

[Quicksilver]

Back in the days of my misspent youth I had a few vans.
A 66 Chevy van, a 68 Ford supervan and a 70 Ford Taunus van (when I was station in Germany with the US Army).
They were all uninsulated........cold in the winter and hot in the summer.
The German one had a V-4 and would only run around 55 on the Autobahn.
My daily driver now is a 2015 Nissan E-200 cargo van. It is mostly uninsulated but the heat/AC keeps it fairly comfortable no matter what the weather.
If Tesla comes out with a cargo style van that matches the performance of a CT I'll trade mine in on one in a heartbeat.
Until that happens the CT will be my last vehicle.

 

[John Forde]

With this design, FSD would need to know to avoid all underpasses with less than 20’ of clearance. Might need more batteries to route around underpasses and tunnels and tollbooths. And more batteries to keep a low center of gravity to avoid tipping over ?

8 feet 10 inches tall.
6'4" stand up height internally.
Bridges are at least 13' 6" unless marked otherwise.

 

[Throwcomputer]

8 feet 10 inches tall.
6'4" stand up height internally.
Bridges are at least 13' 6" unless marked otherwise.

With that much overhang and high center of gravity past the back wheels, you should more be worried about doing wheelies everywhere you go. Better put some skid plates under the back.