Strong Non-Tesla EV presence at the 2022 New York International Auto Show

[Crissa]

I have heard no information saying the cells for the Boot replacement packs are not compatible with what goes into the new model packs. And GM hasn't killed off the Bolt, there is still a factory waiting to make them.

-Crissa

 

[firsttruck]

If nothing else.

GM can continue making Bolts. They retrofitted 140,000 in 6 months so they have capacity for quite a few.

A single task of retrofitting 140,000 battery packs in 6 months is nothing like full array of tasks and supply chain deliveries needed to produce complete vehicles.

That 140,000 was cumulative of 5 years sales (2017 - 2021).
In an alternate reality timeline where the pandemic never happened, no shipping disruptions and no chip shortage, GM might produce 40K Bolts in 2022.

Even pre-pandemic (2020 Mar) and news of Bolt fires (2019 Sept), Bolt U.S. sales peaked at 23,876 units in 2017. U.S. sales down significantly in 2018 (18,019 units) & 2019 (16,418 units). Loss of U.S. federal subsidy for Bolt customers might have had an impact but why did not GM have economy of scale like Tesla and reduce prices more to compensate. Even Bolt sales in Europe and S. Korea dropped even though I think those customers still had most subsidies from their governments.

News of Chevy bolt fires did not start until Sept 2019 so why global sales of Bolt drop so much in 2018 & 2019.
It sure was not due to drop in demand for EVs.
The cause could be GM management limited production because the losses were too high.

But they clearly have capacity to get EVs out the door if they need to.

In this current reality I see nothing indicating ability to dramatically increase Bolt production.
Are there no new Bolt factories?
Are there no new larger suppliers for Bolt components?
GM has to operate in real world not Hollywood world of "Don't need no stinkin badges (factories)" or Dickens novel.

And there is a second issue. Does GM actually make a profit on the current model Bolts.
The reason GM does not promote the Bolt more and produce more Bolts is that GM can not afford the loses resulting from sales of 200,000 units.

 

[Crissa]

The reason they haven't been making vehicles is because they haven't had the parts (like the batteries) for the vehicles.

Assembling them is no biggie: They didn't lay off their workers.

-Crissa

 

[firsttruck]

The reason they haven't been making vehicles is because they haven't had the parts (like the batteries) for the vehicles.

Assembling them is no biggie: They didn't lay off their workers.

-Crissa

Was lack of batteries the issue in drops in Bolts 2018 & 2019?

Tesla seemed to have had plenty of demand in 2018 & 2019 and shipped many more vehicles than GM did in those years despite GM having all these touted 100 years of experience and many more factories & suppliers.

19.225 units U.S. 2019, Tesla Model X
14,425 units U.S. 2019, Tesla Model S
158,925 units U.S. 2019, Tesla Model 3

192,575 units U.S. 2019, Tesla EVs all models

16,418 units U.S. 2019, Chevy Bolt

16,418 units U.S. 2019, GM EVs all models

So Tesla sold almost 10x more units but because some Teslas have much larger battery pack sizes, Tesla probably used more than 10 times more batteries (KwH basis) than GM.

In 2019, why could GM not produce even close to as many EVs as tiny Tesla ?

In 2019, global supply chain EV battery resources problems does not seem to be reason if GM had really wanted to produce significantly more.

Tesla management worked to make profit in EVs back all the way to 2017.
GM management did not do the work required in 2019 and probably still has not done it in 2022.

-----------------------

GM is going ‘all-electric,’ but it doesn’t expect to make money off battery-powered cars until early next decade.
CEO Mary Barra told investors "General Motors does not expect its electric vehicles to turn a profit for at least a few more years".
Published Wed, Feb 6 2019
By Robert Ferris
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/06/gm-...oney-off-electric-cars-until-next-decade.html

-----------------------

UBS Global Research - UBS Evidence Lab - Electric Car Teardown – Disruption Ahead?
We tore down the Chevy Bolt, the world's first mass-market electric vehicle (EV) with a range well above 200 miles.
2017 May
https://neo.ubs.com/shared/d1mFW2YvNRvHXA/

...
How profitable are EVs like the Bolt and the upcoming Tesla Model 3?

Chevy Bolt:
$7k EBIT loss per car 2017E, going to $6k profit in 2025E, holding price stable.

Tesla Model 3:
Today (2017) - $2,800 loss per car on base version, but well-equipped versions should be profitable. We estimate $41k is the break-even point.

-----------------------

 

[Ogre]

Nobody is suggesting GM is going to be competitive with Tesla in the near future (or ever even).


They were able to source enough cells to replace the cells on 140k Bolts.

Thats it.

Which makes me think they are likely more capable of sourcing batteries than Ford.

I don’t think GM is kicking ass and taking names. They are just perhaps not quite as far behind everyone other than Tesla as it seemed.

 

[Ogre]

GM management did not do the work required in 2019 and probably still has not done it in 2022.

GM, Ford, and everyone not Tesla are struggling to make EVs profitably.

For the moment anyhow, just sourcing enough cells to establish themselves as an EV brand is super important, perhaps even if that means being unprofitable.

 

[firsttruck]

Nobody is suggesting GM is going to be competitive with Tesla in the near future (or ever even).

They were able to source enough cells to replace the cells on 140k Bolts.
....

But LG Chem/Energy paid for the replacement packs and may also have paid for GM to install them in the recalled cars.

The Bolt battery uses lithium, nickel and cobalt. All materials that have increased significantly in cost unlike much of Tesla's battery supply that uses nickel-free and cobalt-free chemistry (LFP). GM's battery pack cost probably has gone up significantly since 2019 so GM is probably losing significantly more money per car than even in 2019 when sales dropped from 23,876 units in 2017 to 16,418 units 2019.

Even if there was 60K demand for the damaged Bolt brand, no battery shortage, no chip shortage, no problems with component availability, I expect GM would still refuse to make them.

 

[Dusty]

I can't express how bad things are for Ford and GM if they can't manage to match 1/10th of Tesla's deliveries by year's end.

You hear people saying "oh they're just getting started" and "they know mass manufacturing better than anyone". But then you see after several years that they still lack the ability to manufacture competitive cars at 1/10th the rate of their main competitor, that's a big deal. Especially from a pair of companies who still have to make quite a bit of money to pay for new EV model lines, manufacturing facilities/tech, and resources. All while seeing slumping overall sales as their main competitor sells 10x more EVs, is opening a new factories, having record sales, have a long waitlist, and have hot competing models delivering in the next 18 months.

Their board room must feel like being in a smoker every day.

 

[firsttruck]

I can't express how bad things are for Ford and GM if they can't manage to match 1/10th of Tesla's deliveries by year's end.

You hear people saying "oh they're just getting started" and "they know mass manufacturing better than anyone". But then you see after several years that they still lack the ability to manufacture competitive cars at 1/10th the rate of their main competitor, that's a big deal. Especially from a pair of companies who still have to make quite a bit of money to pay for new EV model lines, manufacturing facilities/tech, and resources. All while seeing slumping overall sales as their main competitor sells 10x more EVs, is opening a new factories, having record sales, have a long waitlist, and have hot competing models delivering in the next 18 months.

Their board room must feel like being in a smoker every day.

Piece of cake for all those executives because they will leave in a couple years when the companies are just huge smoking craters, regular auto workers jobless/homeless but each high-level executive will get 10s of million dollar ( some get 100s of million dollar) gold parachutes.

 

[Dusty]

That's what people think. But in reality it's only the top 3-4 execs that get parachutes worth anything. It's an "S" curve payout scale, and the top person will walk with 100x-75x more than the lowest guy. The lowest guy that gets anything of mention will probably walk with (at best) a year's pay/medical, a handful of toilet paper bonds, and gets prison shanked by the IRS before he gets to his car in the parking lot.

The remaining 7-8 people on the executive board below that guy get the shit end of the stick, with maybe some salt and pepper.

 

[Throwcomputer]

Here is the F150 Lightning from the NY Auto show tonight:




Rode in the Lariat Extended Range with 320 mi battery with packages totalling $80k. The base, pro model is 40k with 230 mi range. This is one of the big reasons why I would not go for a lightning.

 

[Throwcomputer]

Bollinger

 

[Throwcomputer]

NYC electric city services vehicles

 

[Throwcomputer]

Was told this was the European version.. not the American and they will be released in 2 years. Guess there are two versions?!

 

[Throwcomputer]

Both of these were cool. They had a test ride loop just for the Hyundai Ioniq EV but didn't bother going on it. They are really cool looking cars though!

Love this Kia Concept SUV! I would drive this. It also had side view cameras, not mirrors...