Will Rivian Make It?

[ED_SFO]

Given the most recent earnings call. Does the basic math make sense? If Rivian made every single reservation of 98,000, even at 90k each. By the time they could make those wouldn't they have ran out of money and each would still be at a loss?

 

[Crissa]

'By the time' is doing alot of heavy lifting here.

And it assumes no further models to be sold...

It'a thinking like that which is planning for failure instead of planning to succeed. You'd fire all the engineers and design and sales personnel immediately, and you would spiral down into nothing.

Tho it does look bad right now. They need to get their deliveries up.

-Crissa

 

[Luke42]

Rivian has a fine product.

I'm a fan of it, even though the (currently nonexistant) CT has better stats than the (currently on sale) R1T.

The R1T is a great truck, and they'll sell as many of them as they can make up until they get to Toyota Tacoma and Jeep Grand Cherokee volumes.

 

[Berno]

I saw an R1S today when I was in Irvine. It had a crazy paint job with thin orange and silver stripes swirling around. Actually it was probably a wrap, maybe some sort of camouflage to obscure photos. Anyways, it looked good. I think the SUV makes more sense for Rivian then the truck. The conservative styling and price appeal more to the SUV crowd. They will sell lots of these , if they can get them out the door.

 

[JBee]

They also have Amazon. Both orders and investment. Thats a decent buffer imho.

 

[TheLastStarfighter]

Rivian will be bought by someone.

 

[Sirfun]

I saw an R1S today when I was in Irvine. It had a crazy paint job with thin orange and silver stripes swirling around. Actually it was probably a wrap, maybe some sort of camouflage to obscure photos. Anyways, it looked good. I think the SUV makes more sense for Rivian then the truck. The conservative styling and price appeal more to the SUV crowd. They will sell lots of these , if they can get them out the door.

I agree completely. 4'-7" bed, and it's curvy wimpy styling, is not going to win over the truck crowd. The SUV makes way more sense. Also like others have said, they have other vehicles in the works. The Amazon van could do well. They have shown that they are capable of making a good EV, but the car business is brutal.

 

[ED_SFO]

I know ramping production is hard but from the Munro tear down, the way they build the trucks currently I don't see how they could ramp up to say 20k trucks a month, there is too much manual labor to get these things built and all the extra fasteners for everything. Don't get me wrong Ive been in one and on a test ride and it's an amazing vehicle. I guess time will tell.

 

[charliemagpie]

If Rivian is planning to produce 25000 (a year ? ) at say 10% profit = 250 milion. By that time, they would have burned 6 BILLION at the current rate.

Leaving them with 9 Billion. One and a half more years of funds before they run out by the end of 25.

They have a new factory coming online in 2026.

======

They will need to drastically stop the expenses and lift production to over 100,000 and show quick signs of ramping from there. Time flies.

But they only have, 98000 back orders !

I say to business aspirants,,, your family and friends are not enough.

The Amazon 100,000 vans on order. I would bet are at a bargain for Bezos. This is not business !!!

Their very high RD would surely be to frantically develop a new mass market product.

We saw what Dyson did. They are walking a fine line.

 

[JBee]

If Rivian is planning to produce 25000 (a year ? ) at say 10% profit = 250 milion. By that time, they would have burned 6 BILLION at the current rate.

Leaving them with 9 Billion. One and a half more years of funds before they run out by the end of 25.

They have a new factory coming online in 2026.

======

They will need to drastically stop the expenses and lift production to over 100,000 and show quick signs of ramping from there. Time flies.

But they only have, 98000 back orders !

I say to business aspirants,,, your family and friends are not enough.

The Amazon 100,000 vans on order. I would bet are at a bargain for Bezos. This is not business !!!

Their very high RD would surely be to frantically develop a new mass market product.

We saw what Dyson did. They are walking a fine line.

Not sure how profits are relevant in a production ramp?

Cashflow is king in ramp, you need to make enough cars, at a low enough cost (read do it fast), that it at least breaks even, and you aren't using your reserves. Profit is only relevant long term, IF you plan NOT to grow.

You are right that they are under time pressure, because they have idle capex. But EM said that Tesla has that too with their GFs, because they too are ramping, and CT line is actually still missing in GA.

 

[charliemagpie]

They are burning through the funds they have in their savings account.


If they don't show a path to volume, there will be NO fairy godmother.

 

[JBee]

Well Amazon maybe?

I don't think the product has anything wrong with it, I doubt the manufacturing is to wildly different to other manufacturers, but what they might need is someone to come in to do some streamlining. Honestly I think its a management problem.

The only incentive to investors to abandon a new relevant product is if it is fundamentally flawed at some level, or it is more profitable to dissolve and sell parts of it. I can see another legacy manufacturer possibly stepping in, but atm I don't think they will go anywhere for the next few years unless something new comes to light. Ramping production might be hard, but not impossible, and there is expertise out there to do it, even if you use to many fasteners...

 

[charliemagpie]

Yep, Blue Origin survives. Dyson bit the bullet.

I would credit acumen to both. Survival is not as easy as throwing good money at it.

 

[MikeInTheWoods]

I really hope Rivian survives. Their truck is great. If I wasn't in line for a Cybertruck, they would definitely be my second choice

 

[rr6013]

Rivian R1x is the potential EV heir to the Chevy Blazer GM400 which kicked off the SUV craze. R1T is not a Tucker, Chord, AirFlow, Edsel or Corvair design. Rivian leaky cash solution won’t be a one trick pony(R1T). But it must absolutely leverage the R1S off T’s reception before that memory fades in a NY minute. That is execution and all the design in the world can’t overcome lack of it.

What Rivian’s design Team need do and can-do is pipeline the next R2x for Rivian to get to its cashcow VW Bug product on-brand, on board. Its R1x design can carry Rivian water to the R2x bridge where WallSt will fund the venture if they execute on-plan to cashflow longterm.

Nothing concentrates the mind like a bucket in hand with water up to your knees.