WOW! From Barron's -Tesla Stock Is Dead Money. AI Day Won’t Change That.

[Crissa]

That's why Gamestop was being shorted.

But it currently exists as a way that consumers could access hardware without being intercepted by scalpers.

-Crissa

 

[Quicksilver]

I bought my shares last week with the understanding (from watching the pro-Tesla pundits on YouTube) that the stock would make a slow but steady climb.
One pundit is saying Tesla could be 3000 bucks a share by 2030.
Having never invested in the stock market (other than through 401"s) I expect that there will be dips due to unforeseen events.
You never lose money if you don't sell for less than you paid for a stock.
When they tell me my CT is being built I'll either sell the stock to help with the down payment or hold it as an investment.

 

[jerhenderson]

None, I just did it for the anarchy. But I also don't understand TSLA's over-inflated valuation, so to me, both are just a craps game.

when you are personally driving the paradigm shift your stock is worth more than those clinging to the old way of things. that's why tesla is worth more than ICE makers.

 

[jerhenderson]

How much of my GME should I move to TSLA?

All.

 

[Cybertruckee]

Tesla investor here. It was indeed dead money the last months.

But I already earned my returns to fund my Cybertruck.

So who cares. I have the luxury of being philosophical. It's now long term investment - not a loss unless I sell and I'll just wait for Tesla to monetize it's global driving data base.

 

[SwampNut]

when you are personally driving the paradigm shift your stock is worth more than those clinging to the old way of things. that's why tesla is worth more than ICE makers.

When you are marketing to idiots stuck in the past, which is at least half the population, you face an uphill battle on acceptance. Tesla should have 80% market share if the decision were based on logic. But car buying is done on a lot of emotion and very much a lot of fear. That's why ICE makers could still win, because people are stuck in their ways and dumb.

Theory: TSLA should be an obvious win.

Reality: The car market is driven by morons.

 

[Crissa]

The only thing stopping Tesla from having more market share today is their lack of additional factories.

-Crissa

 

[SwampNut]

I disagree. Lots of people still don't want one, and it's usually based on fear or doubt. I feel like a drug dealer or evangelical preacher that I have three referral credits now, all simply based on letting people drive my car and answering their fears about...charging...being weird with no dash and no key...etc. People will buy the F150 for the simple reason that it looks and feels normal. Idiots.

I work in high tech, and have over 30 years of dragging people kicking and screaming into the new ways of doing things.

 

[Crissa]

I disagree. Lots of people...

You can disagree all you want, but Tesla literally cannot make more cars right now. They are selling every one their factories can make, weeks/months/years before the factories can make them.

-Crissa

 

[SwampNut]

That is also a challenge. But I don't believe it's the primary challenge.

As if on cue... I noticed my house cleaning people showed up in a new or new-ish SUV today. I commented on it. Eventually the conversation got to our new-ish Tesla and how she wishes she could afford it. Turns out she paid the same. But will pay MUCH more in the long run with gas and maintenance. And how she wishes it had enough range, but she visits houses all over the city. Yeah, you and I know it has enough range. She was shocked. And how...well the whole litany of electric fear, that you've probably heard. None true.

Also you can buy used Teslas easily, it took us less than two weeks to find and decide on ours. Carvana, $45k, two years old, 16k miles. And they gave us insane money on our trade.

 

[Crissa]

Yeah, that is a problem. Lots of false info about EVs and Teslas out there. But so far, it's not the limit to sales. It's the limit to investment and laws.

-Crissa

 

[SwampNut]

Just nailed another referral today. The only thing that had kept her from buying was the uncertainty of how it would work day to day. Gave her our car to use in real life errands, answered all the questions, sold.

Aside from charger miles, will Tesla eventually give me something cooler??


SwampNut said:
How much of my GME should I move to TSLA?

All.

Hmmmm....

 

[HaulingAss]

None, I just did it for the anarchy. But I also don't understand TSLA's over-inflated valuation, so to me, both are just a craps game.

Don't ever invest in a company you don't understand.

That said, you could always dedicate the time to learning about the company. You might be surprised what you find out.

 

[SwampNut]

I don’t understand the industry or demographic, and never will. The company is interesting. I invest in industries I understand, as I said before. But GME is not an investment, it’s a crapshoot and sticking it to scumbags in finance.

 

[HaulingAss]

I disagree. Lots of people still don't want one, and it's usually based on fear or doubt. I feel like a drug dealer or evangelical preacher that I have three referral credits now, all simply based on letting people drive my car and answering their fears about...charging...being weird with no dash and no key...etc. People will buy the F150 for the simple reason that it looks and feels normal. Idiots.

I work in high tech, and have over 30 years of dragging people kicking and screaming into the new ways of doing things.

A young home-brewer started Sierra Nevada Brewing back around 1978. He had no money so he needed business loans. But before he borrowed money he wanted to see if there was a market for his beer. So he brewed up a few 5 gallon batches and set up free tasting on the street (you could get away with that back then). Americans at the time were accustomed to drinking very light lagers like Rainer, Coors, and the like so when they tasted his handmade beers about half the people thought it was awful. In fact 90% of the people told him they would never buy it. But 10% of the people loved it.

This made him very happy and convinced him to apply for business loans to go into business. But his family and friends told him he was crazy to borrow money to make beer that 90% of the people didn't even like. But Ken told them he had done the numbers and there were a lot of beer drinkers in America. If 10% of them would buy his product from time to time he would have a highly profitable business. They just shook their heads and thought he had lost his mind.

Well, Ken Grossman went on to become a real innovator in the industry, not just in brewing but in packaging, transport, employee relations and on and on. Now he's worth over a billion dollars. Because he understood he didn't need to sell beer to every beer drinker to make a wildly successful brewery.

While it's true that a lot of people would never buy a Tesla today, it's also true that Tesla can't make enough to satisfy current demand. It's also true that the more people that learn about Tesla from either riding in one, driving one or simply from talking to a friend or family member who bought one, the more people decide they want one. It's a virtuous circle. Even though Tesla now makes 10 times as many cars as they did a few years ago, there is more unfilled demand right now than ever before. The more they make, the more people get exposed to them and the more people that want them.

Tesla will not need to sell a car to every motorist in the world to have a hugely successful business and to be a dominant car maker. They can achieve that while never even selling a single car to two-thirds of the motoring public.