The Limiting Factor - 2023-Q3 Batteries: State of Play

[firsttruck]

Another great video. Please support his channel if you can.

----------------------------------

Tesla Q3 Earnings // Battery Updates // Full Breakdown and Implications
In the Tesla Q3 2023 earnings call, Drew Baglino made a statement about the 4680 production ramp that contained a lot of new information. Today I’m going to break down what he said line-by-line, what the implications are for the 4680 ramp, and what the impact could be on Tesla’s Cost of Goods sold. In short, after 3 years of waiting, it appears 4680 cell production is finally poised to deliver on the exponential growth and cell cost reductions that were teased at Battery Day.
Nov 8, 2023
The Limiting Factor

You can support The Limiting Factor making more videos by donating.
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thelimitingfactor
Paypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/limitingfactor42069
Teespring: https://the-limiting-factor.creator-spring.com
Venmo: @thelimitingfactor

------



----------------------------------

 

[GhostAndSkater]

Hope this will stop the :

"They can't ship the 500 mile version because they don't have enough 4680 cell supply"

They are way ahead of what Cybertruck will consume today, at a 5 GWh/year run rate, they could build 600 units per week of the 500 mile version TODAY, and the 4680s with more lines coming online now they likely ironed out most issues in line 1, Cybertruck cell consumption won't ever catch up with 4680 production

 

[cvalue13]

Hope this will stop the :

"They can't ship the 500 mile version because they don't have enough 4680 cell supply"

They are way ahead of what Cybertruck will consume today, at a 5 GWh/year run rate, they could build 600 units per week of the 500 mile version TODAY, and the 4680s with more lines coming online now they likely ironed out most issues in line 1, Cybertruck cell consumption won't ever catch up with 4680 production

how can you possibly run those calculations without making some assumption about how many cells can fit in a truck?

Also, 600 units/wk amounts to an annual production of 30,000 trucks total.

and separately, even on your math (if I understand it), they could build 600/wk of 500mi versions only if they don't sell any 3XXmi versions (or Semi's?)

at which point I'm reminded about various of Tesla's comments lately, best summarized here:

Q1 Earning's Call April 19th 2023: I want to reiterate the philosophy by which we're operating the business this year. Our approach is to grow volumes as quickly as possible in both our vehicle and energy businesses. ​

This has two vectors of relevance to your math:

First, even if this OP video and your math are right, as a business matter Tesla would rather sell 700 units of 3XXmi cars, than 600 units of 5XX mi cars

Second, with volume as the focus, they'd not focus on 5XXmi cars if the resulting MSRP of those 5XXmi cars creates a smaller demand/volume space.

So whether it's because they can't make a 5XXmi version, or because they don't want to, the outcome is the same on Nov 30.

 

[GhostAndSkater]

how can you possibly run those calculations without making some assumption about how many cells can fit in a truck?

Also, 600 units/wk amounts to an annual production of 30,000 trucks total.

and separately, even on your math (if I understand it), they could build 600/wk of 500mi versions only if they don't sell any 3XXmi versions (or Semi's?)

at which point I'm reminded about various of Tesla's comments lately, best summarized here:

Q1 Earning's Call April 19th 2023: I want to reiterate the philosophy by which we're operating the business this year. Our approach is to grow volumes as quickly as possible in both our vehicle and energy businesses. ​

This has two vectors of relevance to your math:

First, even if this OP video and your math are right, as a business matter Tesla would rather sell 700 units of 3XXmi cars, than 600 units of 5XX mi cars

Second, with volume as the focus, they'd not focus on 5XXmi cars if the resulting MSRP of those 5XXmi cars creates a smaller demand/volume space.

So whether it's because they can't make a 5XXmi version, or because they don't want to, the outcome is the same on Nov 30.

My point is that Tesla won't be making 600 a week anytime soon, so they have cells to spare and 4680 production will ramp faster than what Cybertruck production will require

In fact, again from the OP video, they will have trouble finding where to stuff the amount of 4680s they will be making pretty soon

More math, lets assume the 500 mi version is 170 kWh, so a 300 miles version 102 kWh, in todays cell cost this is a $6800 cell cost difference, or if you add the IRA credit, $3740

I doubt the difference between the Long Range 500 miles and a Standard 300 miles one will be just a few thousands

So we have Tesla with spare cell capacity, and needing a place to put those cells on, and on top of that they have higher margins on the higher range version even considering it takes more cells

Seem like a win win scenario to focus on the highest range version

 

[cvalue13]

My point is that Tesla won't be making 600 a week anytime soon, so they have cells to spare and 4680 production will ramp faster than what Cybertruck production will require

In fact, again from the OP video, they will have trouble finding where to stuff the amount of 4680s they will be making pretty soon

More math, lets assume the 500 mi version is 170 kWh, so a 300 miles version 102 kWh, in todays cell cost this is a $6800 cell cost difference, or if you add the IRA credit, $3740

I doubt the difference between the Long Range 500 miles and a Standard 300 miles one will be just a few thousands

So we have Tesla with spare cell capacity, and needing a place to put those cells on, and on top of that they have higher margins on the higher range version even considering it takes more cells

Seem like a win win scenario to focus on the highest range version

but if observations are at odds with your deductions, then it means your deductions are flawed

the relevant observations: they aren’t putting out a 5XX (or 4XX) CT

work backwards from *that*

not forwards from a hypothesis

or, just wait until Nov 30

 

[GhostAndSkater]

but if observations are at odds with your deductions, then it means your deductions are flawed

the relevant observations: they aren’t putting out a 5XX (or 4XX) CT

work backwards from *that*

not forwards from a hypothesis

or, just wait until Nov 30

Wait, what is your source they aren't putting out a 500 mile one? A bunch of source less leaks we had in the past months?

While we have the Tesla sourced 500 mile version from the unveil and nothing from then indicates they changed

But yeah, lets wait

 

[cvalue13]

Wait, what is your source they aren't putting out a 500 mile one? A bunch of source less leaks we had in the past months?

While we have the Tesla sourced 500 mile version from the unveil and nothing from then indicates they changed

But yeah, lets wait

*gestures broadly at the universe*

 

[newwave1331]

but if observations are at odds with your deductions, then it means your deductions are flawed

This sounds familiar.

 

[LoneWolfO6]

Why?!