Master Plan 3 Coming March 1 on Investor Day

[Richard V.]

Most analysts suggest global lithium supply will limit battery production to 4TWh by 2030.

This is from The Limiting Factor who is one of the more reliable sources for battery info.

Interesting, yes I have seen this graph before from The Limiting Factor. Ultimately demand for Lithium goes well beyond 4TWh estimated for 2030. I think if I recall some people talked about a future need of about 100 TWh for the planet. If that is the case and I did the simple math correctly I get the following need for LCE tonnes (m).

Therefore, it looks like The Limiting Factor for sustainable energy on the planet could be lithium refining.

 

[Richard V.]

Ref: PowerPoint Presentation (hffinancial.com)

Extract
"Tesla’s humanoid robot named Optimus, which is currently in the early stages of development, could also drastically increase the utility offered to its customers. Robotaxis would free up additional time for commuters, while the bot’s TAM is the entirety of the worldwide labor market."

Note: Total Addressable Market - Learn How to Calculate the TAM (corporatefinanceinstitute.com)

Given the potential of the Tesla Bot (i.e., Optimus) I think it needs to be included into the presentation on the 1st March 2023 at the Tesla investor's day.

I am thinking of this to accelerate the development of these bots: AlphaGo Zero: Starting from scratch (deepmind.com)

 

[mhaze]

Its on the invite…

What you posted after "It's on the invite..." was 1676167239273.png. There's nothing on a png except the picture, no link.

Where is the list a verified Tesla shareholder would sign up on to be in the lottery for going to the event?

 

[Ogre]

Interesting, yes I have seen this graph before from The Limiting Factor. Ultimately demand for Lithium goes well beyond 4TWh estimated for 2030. I think if I recall some people talked about a future need of about 100 TWh for the planet. If that is the case and I did the simple math correctly I get the following need for LCE tonnes (m).

Therefore, it looks like The Limiting Factor for sustainable energy on the planet could be lithium refining.

I think it’s 100 TWh of cell capacity, not the capacity to create 100 TWh every year. So if we are producing 4 TWh/ year by 2023 and increasing output, we might be up to 8 TWh by 2035 and hit 100 TWh by 2040-2045.

At some point, we’ll hit a steady state and lithium demand will flatten or even decrease.

 

[Ogre]

Where is the list a verified Tesla shareholder would sign up on to be in the lottery for going to the event?

You are automatically entered into the lottery to attend events if you register your shares on Tesla’s site.

 

[Richard V.]

I think it’s 100 TWh of cell capacity, not the capacity to create 100 TWh every year. So if we are producing 4 TWh/ year by 2023 and increasing output, we might be up to 8 TWh by 2035 and hit 100 TWh by 2040-2045.

At some point, we’ll hit a steady state and lithium demand will flatten or even decrease.

Yes, you are correct that is what I mean with 100TWh in total from all over the place for the good of the mission.

 

[Dids]

I predict 2 factories will be announced.

One in Mexico to build gen 3 / 25k / robotaxi type vehicle and one in India / Thailand to build electric tuk tuk. Franz said he was working on a design that was not in the normal space.... I took that to mean either evtol, but I realized after Elon said all investors in the sense of life on earth that phase 3 might mean addressing the huge tuk tuk problem.
Small engines are by far the most polluting / using a lawnmower for 1 hr emits the same CO2 as average 100 mile car trip
Many south Asian cities are pushing hard for electrification because of poor air quality and Tesla is uniquely positioned to cast a tuk tuk at a price that would compete with gas versions.

 

[CyberGus]

Most analysts suggest global lithium supply will limit battery production to 4TWh by 2030.

https://www.mining-technology.com/news/india-lithium-discovery/
India announces discovery of 5.9 million tonnes of lithium
The Indian Government’s announcement of the discovery of 5.9 million tonnes of inferred lithium ore could expand their electric vehicle ambitions.

 

[charliemagpie]

I am not an expert.

The earth has just begun to mobilize towards electrification.

This is where the experts imo get it wrong, they don't envisage the results of a war type effort for the rest of business to get on board.

 

[Ogre]

I predict 2 factories will be announced.

One in Mexico to build gen 3 / 25k / robotaxi type vehicle and one in India / Thailand to build electric tuk tuk. Franz said he was working on a design that was not in the normal space.... I took that to mean either evtol, but I realized after Elon said all investors in the sense of life on earth that phase 3 might mean addressing the huge tuk tuk problem.
Small engines are by far the most polluting / using a lawnmower for 1 hr emits the same CO2 as average 100 mile car trip
Many south Asian cities are pushing hard for electrification because of poor air quality and Tesla is uniquely positioned to cast a tuk tuk at a price that would compete with gas versions.

I’m trying to figure out what you are trying to highlight here. The fact that there is a triple row of bars there? Maybe that meanst 3 Gigafactories…

I totally agree there will be at least 2 announced this year, maybe not both at the same event, they might need to finalize things at one location or the other.

The Nevada expansion I think takes some slack off their needs.

 

[Dids]

I’m trying to figure out what you are trying to highlight here. The fact that there is a triple row of bars there? Maybe that meanst 3 Gigafactories…

I totally agree there will be at least 2 announced this year, maybe not both at the same event, they might need to finalize things at one location or the other.

The Nevada expansion I think takes some slack off their needs.

Yes, but it's a double row. I think the picture evokes alien dreadnought factory. I think the double row means 2 planned. And I think those are cast bodies.

 

[mhaze]

I predict 2 factories will be announced.

.... Small engines are by far the most polluting / using a lawnmower for 1 hr emits the same CO2 as average 100 mile car trip ....

I suspect that statistic is rather distorted. The little 2 cycles toss oil out with the exhaust, which is a substantial "traditional" pollutant. And small 4 cycle engines don't have catalytic converters. But those issues don't have much to do with co2. CO2 is just the primary output of combustion.

There is or was a method of converting various pollutants into "co2 equivalents" which really never made much sense. Someone thought it would be smart to talk that way, simpler than having a variety of factors.

As for what people want, say in Jakarta, I can guarantee you they want a cheaper lightweight vehicle, and if electric vehicles are more expensive, forget it.

 

[Dids]

I suspect that statistic is rather distorted. The little 2 cycles toss oil out with the exhaust, which is a substantial "traditional" pollutant. And small 4 cycle engines don't have catalytic converters. But those issues don't have much to do with co2. CO2 is just the primary output of combustion.

There is or was a method of converting various pollutants into "co2 equivalents" which really never made much sense. Someone thought it would be smart to talk that way, simpler than having a variety of factors.

As for what people want, say in Jakarta, I can guarantee you they want a cheaper lightweight vehicle, and if electric vehicles are more expensive, forget it.

I agree I have not tested the CO2 emissions from small engine vs average car but the internet seems pretty sure about it.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releas...ctively emit 16 times,be published in the Jan.

 

[JBee]

I agree I have not tested the CO2 emissions from small engine vs average car but the internet seems pretty sure about it.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/01/060101155000.htm#:~:text=Motorcycles collectively emit 16 times,be published in the Jan.

Without wanting to be nitpicking and just for more context, the higher values of "pollutants" from motorcycles, even from that paper are not CO2, rather hydrocarbons (unburned fuel) and carbon monoxide (poorly burnt fuel, CO is actually combustible itself). Both of which are harmful to human health, in fact outright poisonous, but don't have the same anthropogenic warming effect as Carbon Dioxide.

All combustion of hydrocarbons CH in the atmosphere produces water vapour H2O and CO2 as the Nitrogen remains an inert space filler in combustion. (Hence NOS improving the oxygen levels for ICE) But not all hydrocarbons burn the same, in that simple hydrocarbons like methane CH4 (natural gas, biomehtane, Starship fuel) burns very clean into just water vapour and CO2 with other emissions including particle emissions coming from lubricants and not the fuel itself. (So Starship won't produce much particle emissions either) With our 2000HP biomethane generator it burns so clean you can use the exhaust gases for greenhouse heating, humidity control and CO2 enrichment.

But as soon as you start using longer chain hydrocarbons like gasoline C8H18 the longer chain not only increases density so that it is a liquid, but also makes the fuel less completely combustible, therefore producing other pollutants in a ICE that then needs treatment. The primary cause for motorcycles being more pollutant, is that they lack proper fuel combustion and control, and any form of emissions control or treatment, especially in poorer nations.

Overall the pollutants they produce are directly more harmful to humans (carcinogenic etc) than the CO2 emissions will likely ever be, seeing that bikes transport a human for less fuel per mile, therefore less CO2 per mile, especially in urban areas, than a standard ICE. (Hybrids are better of course).

Either way it's a considerable problem that should be addressed with EV technology. In their particular case a replacement EV motorbike would be most effective for rapid adoption and cost. But EM has said that Tesla won't make a 2 wheeler motorcycle because of safety.

But what about making a tandem two seater tadpole trike out of a single cast, but for $10k? It would require less than a quarter of the batteries (the main cost) because of reduced drag and mass, have a single motor drivetrain and cover 70% of the national demographic for vehicle occupancy (1-2 people) and would be as safe as a car. Something like this using hammer proof, solar powered, electro chromatic RGB transparent cast aluminum:

 

[Dids]

Without wanting to be nitpicking and just for more context, the higher values of "pollutants" from motorcycles, even from that paper are not CO2, rather hydrocarbons (unburned fuel) and carbon monoxide (poorly burnt fuel, CO is actually combustible itself). Both of which are harmful to human health, in fact outright poisonous, but don't have the same anthropogenic warming effect as Carbon Dioxide.

All combustion of hydrocarbons CH in the atmosphere produces water vapour H2O and CO2 as the Nitrogen remains an inert space filler in combustion. (Hence NOS improving the oxygen levels for ICE) But not all hydrocarbons burn the same, in that simple hydrocarbons like methane CH4 (natural gas, biomehtane, Starship fuel) burns very clean into just water vapour and CO2 with other emissions including particle emissions coming from lubricants and not the fuel itself. (So Starship won't produce much particle emissions either) With our 2000HP biomethane generator it burns so clean you can use the exhaust gases for greenhouse heating, humidity control and CO2 enrichment.

But as soon as you start using longer chain hydrocarbons like gasoline C8H18 the longer chain not only increases density so that it is a liquid, but also makes the fuel less completely combustible, therefore producing other pollutants in a ICE that then needs treatment. The primary cause for motorcycles being more pollutant, is that they lack proper fuel combustion and control, and any form of emissions control or treatment, especially in poorer nations.

Overall the pollutants they produce are directly more harmful to humans (carcinogenic etc) than the CO2 emissions will likely ever be, seeing that bikes transport a human for less fuel per mile, therefore less CO2 per mile, especially in urban areas, than a standard ICE. (Hybrids are better of course).

Either way it's a considerable problem that should be addressed with EV technology. In their particular case a replacement EV motorbike would be most effective for rapid adoption and cost. But EM has said that Tesla won't make a 2 wheeler motorcycle because of safety.

But what about making a tandem two seater tadpole trike out of a single cast, but for $10k? It would require less than a quarter of the batteries (the main cost) because of reduced drag and mass, have a single motor drivetrain and cover 70% of the national demographic for vehicle occupancy (1-2 people) and would be as safe as a car. Something like this using hammer proof, solar powered, electro chromatic RGB transparent cast aluminum:

Firstly, yes my point was small engines are dirty and they are very inefficient. Many south Asian cities are clogged with motorbikes and with tuk tuks (3 wheel motorbikes). I understand that Tesla will not make a motorbike because they are truly unsafe... No thinking person would ride one or even pedel a bike in traffic... Yet in my town the idiots run on the shoulder of the road 3 ft from a perfectly useful sidewalk. Mostly because they are special.
But didn't Tesla just enter Thailand and talks with India are ongoing.... What both of them really want is an affordable electric tuktuk