Is $TSLA going to 600.00?

[Ogre]

No doubt. BUT, supply chain issues are still a problem and will be for months to come.

The whole market… not just the auto market. Is struggling at the moment. The NASDAQ isn’t struggling due to supply chain issues. It’s beat to crap because of inflationary concerns and the actions of the Fed.

Google isn’t down due to supply chain issues.
Microsoft isn’t down due to supply chain issues.
Facebook isn’t beat up due to supply chain issues.
etc etc etc.

This is market-wide. The whole damned market is in a massive trough, including lots of companies which have zero supply chain issues.

When the market recovers, Tesla will do just fine in spite of those lingering supply chain issues. It’s a known problem which Tesla has been effectively dealing with for 18+ months.

 

[TruckElectric]

The whole market… not just the auto market. Is struggling at the moment.

Brillant observation, Sherlock.

The NASDAQ isn’t struggling due to supply chain issues

Correct. So?

It’s beat to crap because of inflationary concerns and the actions of the Fed.

Mainly, yes. Don't forget THE ECONOMY!

Google isn’t down due to supply chain issues.
Microsoft isn’t down due to supply chain issues.
Facebook isn’t beat up due to supply chain issues.
etc etc etc.

??????

This is market-wide. The whole damned market is in a massive trough, including lots of companies which have zero supply chain issues.

TSLA definitely got caught up in the market crash. It's not IMMUNE!

When the market recovers, Tesla will do just fine in spite of those lingering supply chain issues.

Only time will tell how Tesla will be able to deal with new supply chain issues it has not dealt with yet.

 

[TruckElectric]

A suggestion to OGRE and other TSLA investors:

Don't FALL IN LOVE WITH YOUR INVESTMENT! It's EASY TO DO! It will cloud your ability to think RATIONALLY!

So many have fell into this trap, why? Well because of human emotion which is inescapable. We are not robots.

I have done it and anybody who has invested in stocks has as well.

Try to detach yourself EMOTIONALLY as much as possible from your investments!

And good luck!

 

[John K]

It is a good thing I am diversified in Amazon stock to ride out the TSLA dip.
.
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Everyone, “Uh…”
.
.
What?

 

[TruckElectric]

*M*O*A*C*!

 

[Luke42]

We all know that TSLA's stock price can't be explained by standard stock valuation methods.

Many on this forum argue that these valuation methods just don't apply. However, I think these methods still provide some insight.

TSLA's stock price reflects a solid company with a very bright future. But that's not enough to explain the price: the final layer of the price is the size of Elon Musk's affluent Internet fandom.

If you accept that Elon Musk fandom is a major part of TSLA's stock price, then the next question is: how long until Musk upsets a sizeable fraction of his stock-owning fandom? Internet fandoms are notoriously fickle, and Musk is too. My assessment is that a large fraction of Musk's fandom will turn on him at some point, if it hasn't happened already.

P.S. I'm not a critic of owing TSLA stock. Owning TSLA stock has been very good to my family, but repeating that life-changing 10x investment return requires facing some unpleasant truths. One unpleasant of those truths is that I bought TSLA stock for all of the wrong reasons prior to the 2020 bull run. The flip side is that I sold TSLA for the right reasons at a local peak and have used the proceeds to buy more safer investments (ETFs, a house, etc). In other words, I was lucky rather than smart - but I'm willing to face that unpleasant truth and act accordingly.

 

[TruckElectric]

how long until Musk upsets a sizeable fraction of his stock-owning fandom?

Let me guess......you are one of them.

My assessment is that a large fraction of Musk's fandom will turn on him at some point,

Large? What makes you assume large?

I bought TSLA stock for all of the wrong reasons

And what were those wrong reasons?

The flip side is that I sold TSLA for the right reasons

What were the right reasons?

 

[Luke42]

And what were those wrong reasons?

I wasn't really thinking when I bought TSLA.

My thought was "electric cars are cool, and Tesla is doing something about that. I want in on that."

Those are all true statements, and I believe them wholeheartedly.

However, that doesn't have anything to do with getting returns on my investment. I essentially hit the lottery to get my 10x return on TSLA.

What were the right reasons?

Reasons:

1. Is the current stock price justified?
2. What will the stock price (and dividends) be in the future, and can I predict it?

My current answer is that about 20% of TSLA's stock price reflects a great company with a very bright future already priced in, and the remaining 80% is Elon Musk fandom.

As for what TSLA's future stock price will be, I'm just not smart enough to predict it.

I'm better at predicting the future price of VTI, with the help of intramarket analysis software and some experience. Note that I didn't say "good" - I still get a lot of surprises. But a hazy 3-day crystal ball that amounts to reliable trend detection IRL is still more predictable than "I wonder what Elon Musk will tweet today?!?"

 

[John K]

What were the right reasons?

To make money. It is possible to be bullish and make money on swings.

 

[Tinker71]

I'm guessing you are thinking that I meant TSLA will get to $600.00 TODAY!

Well, ummm NO!

I have a big blocking buy order at $620 so no.

 

[TruckElectric]

I have a big blocking buy order at $620

Won't you be surprised when you get that notification that your order is filled! Been there, done that ?

 

[Tinker71]

My current answer is that about 20% of TSLA's stock price reflects a great company with a very bright future already priced in, and the remaining 80% is Elon Musk fandom.

1.) I really hope the ratio is more like 70/30. Virtual grid, robotaxi will both happen, Tesla lead in machine learning is huge and these need to be priced on top of anything having to do with Tesla vehicles.
2.) I hope Tesla has a built in contingency plan if something were to happen with Elon. Frans shared the stage???
3.) I don't think you necessarily need to like Elon's antics to realize that he has great technical vision and instincts to run Tesla.

 

[TruckElectric]

how long until Musk upsets a sizeable fraction of his stock-owning fandom? Internet fandoms are notoriously fickle, and Musk is too. My assessment is that a large fraction of Musk's fandom will turn on him at some point, if it hasn't happened already.

Actually that thought had crossed my mind about upsetting some of his "former" fans and them selling their TSLA stock. I'm fairly sure it has happened/happening.

 

[WildhavenMI]

My uneducated and uninformed opinion is that this is a long overdue snap to reality for the market. Trendline over the last few years has been idiotic and unsustainable for a number of reasons, including Tesla valuation.

People with money will buy the correction and ride it up next time. People without will get crunched from both sides and become economic victim to inflation. The gap widens, as it has literally every time we've experienced this boom/bust cycle.

I personally feel Tesla is still overvalued and the price is detached from fundamentals. I also recognize that I shouldn't value it like a manufacturer, but I think that during this correction the stock will act more like that of a manufacturer than a tech company. I think we'll get to ~$700 and then tack to market more generally, and it'll be a good time to buy and wait.

 

[TruckElectric]

I think we'll get to ~$700 and then tack to market more generally,

Catching a falling knife is an art, or luck.