Delivery dates of CT and Cybertruck Van

[JBee]

If the van is the Robotaxi, I don’t think it makes sense to put it on the Cybertruck base. The majority of fares would be 1-2 people. Pushing around a giant van for that purpose is a waste. And the Robotaxi is the most likely vehicle Tesla will attack next. And is likely to be van-ish.

Its also unlikely Teslas van will need 35 inch tires or suspension like what the Cybertruck offers. It won’t need big towing capacity either.

Towing capacity is linked to payload capacity, but robotaxi doesn't really need towing. That doesn't mean it can't have the CT drivetrain because it has the capacity to do so, just that it probably won't tow as a robotaxi.

I think the general question to ask first is what is the likelihood of having a van and a robotaxi as seperate models on seperate platforms or sizes? If unlikely, which I beleive it is, then we end up with one vehicle, that could do both.

We then need to have actual ride numbers for where robotaxi will be used. Will it replace actual buses or taxis? Ride share and commuters? Urban and at what speeds and range per day? How often can it be charged and where? At those speeds is aerodynamics a range concern? This then leads back around to the whole Crafter vs Expedition arfuements, where having extra interior volume does not automatically mean more vehicle weight or more consumption. Utility and time of use also need to be factored in, like peak periods need more seats otherwise it adds to congestion.

From there I then think well what parts do I already have to do this. Structural battery pack, compact electric drivetrain with 4WS with required payload capacity, wheel size is just a gear ratio change away, HVAC will be similar, given it will be less of a performance vehicle with fast acceleration. Could just be 2WD if urban on sealed roads.

Then the question comes up will it be stainless, how many doors and what type, can you walk into it and stand inside, what are stop cycle times, what are the routes and destinations and average travel times. Will it be point to point.

In a 2x2x5m monospace van platform, the same road footprint as a MS, we can safely fit 12 people and luggage in 4 rows. If we have rear facing seats as well, we can do it with two doors on either side and have standing spots. If it's only for 2 or 3 passengers we don't even need to make a new vehicle for it, we just take a M3 and take the steering wheel out.

 

[Ogre]

Will it replace actual buses or taxis?

Yes, both. That’s the whole idea.

Musk said expressly “why would anyone take a bus when a Robotaxi will be cheaper”

And I just don’t see roboTaxi being a small bus, which is what you are describing. If I catch a RoboTaxi to go home, have to wait while it picks up 4-6 other people, then have to wait while it drops off 4-6 other people before me. That’s not much more convenient than a regular bus service. Definitely not a taxi like experience.

 

[JBee]

Yes, both. That’s the whole idea.

Musk said expressly “why would anyone take a bus when a Robotaxi will be cheaper”

And I just don’t see roboTaxi being a small bus, which is what you are describing. If I catch a RoboTaxi to go home, have to wait while it picks up 4-6 other people, then have to wait while it drops off 4-6 other people before me. That’s not much more convenient than a regular bus service. Definitely not a taxi like experience.

Well if its under 4 people just take a M3, really no point otherwise to make a new vehicle because of it. Or maybe then go the other way and make a M2 as a robotaxi?

But what happens if you go to the airport with your 3 kids and holiday luggage, or a night on the town with the girls, or pickup multiple kids from soccer to drop them all off instead of a soccer mum? I don't think 1 or 2 person rides justifies a new platform.

As for robotaxi being cheaper than a bus... did he mean a FSD enabled M3 that would make 100k a year as a robotaxi or the dedicated no driver robotaxi? Either way I think the M3 at 0.07c mile is already cheaper than a bus, so not hard to do either way.

 

[Ogre]

I don't think 1 or 2 person rides justifies a new platform.

Robotaxi should serve between 1 and 6 people quite well. If you need 12, get 2.

If you have a 12 version van, you are pulling capacity for 12 people all the time when you only need that capacity a small percentage of the time. A comfortable 6 person vehicle with 6 large, comfortable seats would take care of the vast majority of the Robotaxi needs while not pushing around a huge platform all day long.

A model 3 or Model Y seats 2 people comfortably, 4 people moderately comfortably and 5 in a pinch. The rear seats in those cars are not champions of comfort.

Plus there is the whole steering wheel/ controls problem. On the Model 3 and Model Y the wheel is live. Fares can crash your car.

 

[JBee]

Robotaxi should serve between 1 and 6 people quite well. If you need 12, get 2.

If you have a 12 version van, you are pulling capacity for 12 people all the time when you only need that capacity a small percentage of the time. A comfortable 6 person vehicle with 6 large, comfortable seats would take care of the vast majority of the Robotaxi needs while not pushing around a huge platform all day long.

A model 3 or Model Y seats 2 people comfortably, 4 people moderately comfortably and 5 in a pinch. The rear seats in those cars are not champions of comfort.

Plus there is the whole steering wheel/ controls problem. On the Model 3 and Model Y the wheel is live. Fares can crash your car.

I get where your coming from, but the difference between a 6 and a 12 person vehicle is not 100% more vehicle, its more like 15-25% more vehicle structure, but zero more battery, motors and drivetrain where the cost is.

Remember we can get 4 rows of 3 in a monospace van the same length as a MS, which is only a foot longer than a MY, and all can sit on comfy individual seats with adjustment.

In fact a two bay version, with separable front and rear 6 seat sections, with seats that face eachother would allow two unrelated groups to rideshare in relative privacy. Like the London taxi cabs:

 

[Crissa]

A minority of fares would need a big vehicle, tho. There's a reason I can pay more for a Lyft with more seats or soace for a bike.

A bus physically fits more people on the road at once. Swipe a card, get on the local looper, get to the store or whatever. I only need to pay for a private car when there's no looper or I have scores of groceries in the back.

Literally there's not enough space on the road for everyone to take a private car to the major league ball game.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

I just don’t see Tesla and Musk talking about RoboTaxi when he means RoboBus.

 

[JBee]

A minority of fares would need a big vehicle, tho. There's a reason I can pay more for a Lyft with more seats or soace for a bike.

A bus physically fits more people on the road at once. Swipe a card, get on the local looper, get to the store or whatever. I only need to pay for a private car when there's no looper or I have scores of groceries in the back.

Literally there's not enough space on the road for everyone to take a private car to the major league ball game.

-Crissa

That actually means it makes more sense to have more seats, and more passengers at once, to reduce road congestion and increase efficiency and utility. So a two cabin vehicle for private ridesharing. You just have to incentives and optimise ridesharing.

And I still don't get how a Model S size platform with 12 seats is too big. What would the advantage be of making a 3.5m or 4m 6 seater, if for 1m more you can double the seats or luggage? Also being that short will make keeping the Cd down harder.

 

[JBee]

I just don’t see Tesla and Musk talking about RoboTaxi when he means RoboBus.

Well the main difference between taxi and bus is that one is point to point and he other stop to stop along a fixed route.

Robotaxi will be point to point, but doesn't mean it can't have more seats. A VW bus taxi can also have 12 seats.

 

[Ogre]

Well the main difference between taxi and bus is that one is point to point and he other stop to stop along a fixed route.

Robotaxi will be point to point, but doesn't mean it can't have more seats. A VW bus taxi can also have 12 seats.

What percentage of trips do you think are point to point and will require 12 passengers?

Havent seen the numbers but I suspect it’s quite small.

 

[Crissa]

I just don’t see Tesla and Musk talking about RoboTaxi when he means RoboBus.

He doesn't. But he also admits Tesla can't serve the entire demand.

-Crissa

 

[Mini2nut]

The Cybervan is a no-brainer business decision.

Every business would love a commercial van with a 3mm thick SS skin that could take the daily abuse of 17-year delivery drivers.

 

[John K]

This looks like an interesting concept, just not sure how they manage the structure for that huge double opening sliding door. Seems to be a decent size monospace, but I'm hoping for something a bit more modular where different bodies can go on the same platform.

Maybe… just maybe try different contraception?

wondering out loud how the front door is attached in the open state.

 

[John K]

Then the question comes up will it be stainless,

Precedent set, all new models are stainless steel

 

[JBee]

Maybe… just maybe try different contraception?

wondering out loud how the front door is attached in the open state.

I'd imagine that both doors first open on a arm to get it to the outside of the vehicle and the door then slides down two rails integrated into the door itself. Its common for sliding doors to be electric now which makes more complicated motions easier to operate and realise.

If it is SS body then it could actually be normally pressed unpainted body panels like the delorean. But if its a 3mm exoskeleton then we are back to a folded sheet metal design.

I'm also thinking that large openings like a van would have, would not be favourable to a exoskeleton design, simply because the door itself doesn't help the van that much structurally as it can't carry any vehicle mass. So having large surfaces of 3mm steel making heavy doors might be counter productive.

If we have pressed SS panels we also get a lot of freedom for design, especially for reducing aerodynamic drag, without loosing the main benefits of SS, being no paint shop and corrosion protection.