Live Tesla Shareholder meeting

[TruckElectric]

 

[TruckElectric]

Elon on now

 

[WildhavenMI]

He's always kind of rambling but damn is he rambling.

 

[TruckElectric]

Elon: Batteries(EV) are basically high grade ore

 

[DMC-81]

Elon just announced that Tesla's headquarters are moving to Austin, Texas.

 

[Ogre]

My 7 big takeaways from the meeting:

* Cell Production of the 4680 is finally on track with 10GB production in Fremont.
* Sounds like Model Y will start production with he 4680 which is awesome.
* Confirmed start of production sometime in 2022 and Volume Production (5k/ week) in 2023.
* Tesla Semi & Roadster in 2023

That first is huge.

 

[JBee]

Interesting that EM said a doubling of household power consumption if the household has two cars, and a trebling if house heating is added.

We have some work cutout.

 

[JBee]

My 7 big takeaways from the meeting:

* Cell Production of the 4680 is finally on track with 10GB production in Fremont.

10GWh is only 100,000 100kWh battery packs.
What does that mean for CT production?

Probably not as much as we want. I'm expecting my 42k position will be lucky to happen early 2023, given MY will take the first batches of 4680s, maybe even all of the 10GWh according to EM today.

Me be sad... :‐(

 

[Ogre]

10GWh is only 100,000 100kWh battery packs.
What does that mean for CT production?

Probably not as much as we want. I'm expecting my 42k position will be lucky to happen early 2023, given MY will take the first batches of 4680s, maybe even all of the 10GWh according to EM today.

Me be sad... :‐(

The 10GW production is destined for the Model Y. It is 150,000 - 160,000 Model Ys.

The fact that they have volume production of the 4680 cell is absolutely fantastic news after the last shareholder meeting when they said they were stuck.

Cybertruck production will come from the Texas 4680 line which should be online next year. Thus Musk confirmed Cybertruck production by end of 2022.

 

[WildhavenMI]

Interesting that EM said a doubling of household power consumption if the household has two cars, and a trebling if house heating is added.

We have some work cutout.

I'm going through this modeling right now. We're building a new house, and are doing everything we can to make it low-consumption all-electric. Well insulated, ductless minisplits air-source heat pump, hybrid water heater, etc. R-32 walls, R-50 ceiling, in Michigan. And it doesn't matter what more I put in the house - the ~70kWh/day my 2 EVs will pull down dwarfs the household consumption by a LOT.

And the most challenging part is modeling for charging. These are vehicles that leave the house at 7am (which is dark a big chunk of the year) and don't return home until 6p-7p or later most days, when it is either late hours or dark.

So if I want to charge off solar, I don't just need a huge array (which I'm fine with) but I need 70kWh of backup battery to draw from just for vehicles. And if they charge most every day (lets say 300/year), that 1,500 charge cycle life expectancy on a Powerwall is only 5 years long.

It's a challenging equation, for sure - and something I'm only able to even slightly afford because I've been incredibly lucky in life and have a well paying job. I can't imagine how most of the US will afford something like this - which means we really, really need to bring the focus to community solar and regionalized megapacks. Right now the only way for me to not support coal power is to generate my own - and that's just too expensive.

 

[JBee]

So if I want to charge off solar, I don't just need a huge array (which I'm fine with) but I need 70kWh of backup battery to draw from just for vehicles. And if they charge most every day (lets say 300/year), that 1,500 charge cycle life expectancy on a Powerwall is only 5 years long.

The other more cost effective way to do it without powerwalls is to buy a extra CT so you can alternate between using cars and leave the other at home to charge during the day. The price of 70kWh of Powerwalls will get you a DM CT. Otherwise if you wanted to keep one as a weekend vehicle and the other as a commute vehicle, you can just plug in one CT to the other (that charges from solar at home) via the powerpoints in the bed to charge it overnight with about 8-10kW.

Either way CT is a cheaper and better value option than powerwalls. That's why I have 4x on order.

There's also some PV to vehicle chargers out there that don't need batteries, that make the above even more affordable. The trick is to be able to modulate the EV charge rate according to the current solar power availability.

BTW well done on the insulation of your house. Remember that heat transfer occurs through three main methods; conduction, convection and radiation. If you haven't already, have a look at heat recovery ventilation systems to keep your convection losses down and roller shutters on your windows for radiation losses in winter and gains in summer.

 

[WildhavenMI]

The other more cost effective way to do it without powerwalls is to buy a extra CT so you can alternate between using cars and leave the other at home to charge during the day. The price of 70kWh of Powerwalls will get you a DM CT. Otherwise if you wanted to keep one as a weekend vehicle and the other as a commute vehicle, you can just plug in one CT to the other (that charges from solar at home) via the powerpoints in the bed to charge it overnight with about 8-10kW.

Either way CT is a cheaper and better value option than powerwalls. That's why I have 4x on order.

There's also some PV to vehicle chargers out there that don't need batteries, that make the above even more affordable. The trick is to be able to modulate the EV charge rate according to the current solar power availability.

BTW well done on the insulation of your house. Remember that heat transfer occurs through three main methods; conduction, convection and radiation. If you haven't already, have a look at heat recovery ventilation systems to keep your convection losses down and roller shutters on your windows for radiation losses in winter and gains in summer.

Yeah, we're going with a double-wall with a break to reduce thermal barriers, and focusing extra cash on good windows/doors. Due to the nature of the house we have to have an air exchanger - but we haven't considered any sort of heat recovery unit. I'll have to look into those.

I'm really hoping that battery costs come down significantly in the next few years. If we move in late next year, then hold on solar install for another 6 months or so to get accurate Winter consumption numbers, then go with a SolArk or other hybrid inverter I can scale battery backup as money allows and prices change.

The additional vehicle thing becomes a bit of a problem in MI where even "cheap insurance" is expensive - and a third EV that just gets rotated will cost me likely $2k+/year to just sit in the driveway. The money math might work, but I haven't busted out my spreadsheet yet.

 

[Sirfun]

Yeah, we're going with a double-wall with a break to reduce thermal barriers, and focusing extra cash on good windows/doors. Due to the nature of the house we have to have an air exchanger - but we haven't considered any sort of heat recovery unit. I'll have to look into those.

I'm really hoping that battery costs come down significantly in the next few years. If we move in late next year, then hold on solar install for another 6 months or so to get accurate Winter consumption numbers, then go with a SolArk or other hybrid inverter I can scale battery backup as money allows and prices change.

The additional vehicle thing becomes a bit of a problem in MI where even "cheap insurance" is expensive - and a third EV that just gets rotated will cost me likely $2k+/year to just sit in the driveway. The money math might work, but I haven't busted out my spreadsheet yet.

So you guys don't have net metering? During the day while you're away, your solar system could bank your energy for overnight.

 

[WildhavenMI]

So you guys don't have net metering? During the day while you're away, your solar system could bank your energy for overnight.

Michigan utilities won a "maximum number of customers on net metering" quota a while back, and they've hit that quota. I'm in DTE's territory, and new solar installs are not net metered - they're governed by a pain in the butt credit system that gives you credits for off-peak even if you're producing on-peak, but you also still get charged for transmission of your own power back into the grid when you produce in excess.

 

[Sirfun]

Michigan utilities won a "maximum number of customers on net metering" quota a while back, and they've hit that quota. I'm in DTE's territory, and new solar installs are not net metered - they're governed by a pain in the butt credit system that gives you credits for off-peak even if you're producing on-peak, but you also still get charged for transmission of your own power back into the grid when you produce in excess.

Funny how people say California's F'd up. There's always many ways to look at any situation.

This looks like Michigan as looking at this situation, NOT from the consumer/public perspective. They are taking away any incentive to help the grid by adding solar.