EV sales have doubled. Is a ‘tidal wave’ coming?

[ajdelange]

And as we know your household consumption is above the norm, and nearly some 4x as much as mine (for some reason ).

The reason is the electric heat. In the summer place where we don't use heat (much - this is Canada) nor air conditioning the load, without the Tesla, is 46 kWh/d which is much closer to the average. But that's not why I'm posting. I'm wondering what the electricity usage Gini coefficient might be that is whether, as with wealth, a disproportionate amount of the electric consumption is by the Al Gore's while the bulk of the population uses less than even the 30 kW. I think that's got to be the case as the wealthy build these absolutely huge establishments to live in.

[Edit]Found it. For electricity it about 0.35 as compared to 0.41 for wealth.

 

[CyberT]

DO you remember this Nissan commercial? It was pure genius.



ETA: that's a long version that doesn't include the tagline "What if everything ran on gas? Then again, what if it didn't?". Then shows a Leaf being charged.

Wow, I can't believe that I have never seen that commercial. Genius to put that perspective of how silly and disgusting it would be to have ICE powering everything we use each day. If we gladly accept electric powered devices for pretty much everything else, why not use electricity for transportation.

 

[John K]

I thought time crystals solved this topic?

 

[HaulingAss]

Here's the source. https://ourworldindata.org/technology-adoption
It's nice, you can click on each technology and see it's graph by itself.

Electric Vehicle adoption will be fast, but it won't be a tsunami, because people need to install chargers, and the car makers are somewhat inflexible.

Installing charging solutions is not going to slow the transition to EV's down. It only takes a few weeks lead time to upgrade an electrical system (including turning a 100 amp service into a 200 amp service). But new homes all come with 200 amp service (high-end homes sometimes come with more). That's not the kind of time-frame that will slow down adoption that is measured in a number of years time.

What is slowing adoption is availability of electric vehicles. That is a manufacturing problem - the big manufacturers are moving very slowly. You know there is a problem when one recent start-up like Tesla is producing more EV's every year than all the legacy manufacturers combined!

And within four years, Tesla will be producing more EV's than the largest legacy manufacturer is producing ICE cars!

 

[HaulingAss]

Distributed embedded generation AND storage is the solution of least resistance on numerous constraints, especially for household consumption. Instead of centralizing generation and storage you distribute it first, meaning "the grid" does not have to provide these ridiculous capacities in the first place.

While I agree that distributed systems are the best solution, and also the way things are moving, the distributed assets don't necessarily need to be owned at the individual level. In some cases that makes sense, but not in all cases.

For example, it makes sense to have roof-top solar (but not wind). Wind is more efficient the larger the turbine. It's a huge difference in cost/kWh and effort to maintain. And it's absolutely silly to use mobile batteries for grid scale storage, even when distributed. Cars need to be light and affordable - we don't want our energy storage systems driving around on the road every day when they are inaccessible or low on charge when you need them the most. Batteries are heavy and belong in dedicated packs at the sub-station level or situated in conjuction with grid-scale solar generation or high consumption facilities with uneven demand like fast charging stations. Battery packs in cars should be sized for the car, not for supplemental grid storage. I once believed that was a good idea too. Then I learned the specifics and was flexible enough to change my mind to align more closely with the reality of the situation. It sounds good at first blush but it's not the best answer to the need for energy storage.

The primary consumed type of energy in any household is heat. Not electricity.

That's a silly statement because it conflates the source of the energy with the use of the energy. Electrical energy can be converted to heat, light or motion. So can gas.

I could just as easily say: "The primary type of energy used in any household is heat. Not gas."

The same statement is also just plain wrong because in many households the primary type of energy is used for cooling (both refrigeration and air conditioning). It really depends upon the climate.

In the future (and to a more limited degree, in the present), electricity will be the most cost effective and the most environmentally friendly way to provide supplemental heat to a home. A heat pump can provide 3-8 times as much heat as the electricity consumed. Because it moves heat from where it is not needed or wanted (either underground or outside air) to where it is wanted (inside the structure). And it does it many times more efficiently than any type of gas (including bio-gas). Of course, in most climate zones in North America, passive solar with thermal mass storage is the most cost effective and environmentally friendly way to provide most building heating needs. This will be supplemented by heat pumps running on green electricity in the future.

 

[HaulingAss]

That's good for your own independent use. And as we know your household consumption is above the norm, and nearly some 4x as much as mine (for some reason ). ?

Accordingly, the comparison would only make sense if compared to a "normal" US household consumption. For example your 361W equals 8.6kWh for EV use per day compared to 30kWh of consumption in a average US house.

But of course you should really use comparable per household car usage as well to make a "average" comparison between the two. So we need to add US average vehicle miles as well.

So lets do 13500miles average per year in the USA times 280Wh/mile for a M3 = 3780kWh /365 = 10.34kWh day

Average USA electricity consumption 11000kWh/365 = 30kWh

That's a 30% grid capacity increase just to cover household average vehicle energy consumed for an EV. More if you drive anything bigger than a M3. Then add product transportation etc.

This "network upgrade" can mostly be avoided with V2X as described above, by using EV's themselves to buffer load to maximize existing network capacity regardless of the time of use. That also gets rid of the peak problem and plants and allows embedded generation capacity for intermittents like local RE solar and wind.

Your analysis exposes the fundemental flaw in your reasoning when you suggest that a 30% increase in electrical consumption requires a grid with 30% more capacity. That's not how grids work because you have to account for the time of use. The current grid is operated on a daily basis of around only 15% capacity (it varies by geographical area but is very low in all cases).

This is the whole idea behind the growing popularity of time-of-use billing, to encourage the increased utilization of existing assets (both generation and distribution assets). The cost per kWh of the infrastructure is totally dependent upon how many kWh it is delivering over time. EV's increase the utilization of grid assets so they provide more revenue per unit of investment. This is why it is not problematic to increase grid capacity 10% to increase revenue by 30%.

 

[Ogre]

"The avalanche has begun. It is too late for the pebbles to vote" - Ambassador Kosh, Babylon 5

Bummed you Can only hit like on apost once.

 

[Ogre]

Went away for the weekend and this thread went to hell.

As a rule arrogance is a sign of someone trying justify their own weak arguments.

This discussion is no exception.

 

[ajdelange]

A heat pump can provide 3-8 times as much heat as the electricity consumed.

I'd like to get me one of them 6-8 COP heat pumps. Where can I?

 

[HaulingAss]

I'd like to get me one of them 6-8 COP heat pumps. Where can I?

The theoretical maximum is 35 but you're not going to see anything close to that in the real world. The most efficient systems I'm aware of that are currently available start peaking somewhere above 5 using ground source loops in advantageous situations so the results are dependent upon local ground conditions (temperature and thermal conductivity) and the expense of the install in terms of minimizing pumping losses, etc.

Still, when one thinks about it, it's incredible to get just 3-4 times the amount of heat out for every unit of electrical energy expended. This is where the future is headed.

 

[JBee]

Are you trying to call me a poor aussie outback beggar because I don't use enough power?

I agree with your premise. Average household energy consumption doesn't reflect heat load accurate enough, that is unavoidable in colder climates. It also doesn’t provide insight into house size or insulation etc. There should be a climate index for latitude to offset heat demand due to climate, so its easier to visualise non-heat electricity consumption. And one to show building size and type.

For example I'm currently in southern Germany near the alps (escaped from the lockdown state of oz) and the building we're in now is one we built with steel skinned SIPS panels and hemp insulation. It's 1600sqm (17000sft) floorspace and uses around 3000l oil over winter or about 160kWh a day of heat for 4 apartments and about 400sqm of office space. Which isn't too bad for a building this size. Has triple glazed windows with shutters and faces a lake to the south which helps with solar gain along with bifacial solar panels in winter.

 

[ajdelange]

The theoretical maximum is 35 but you're not going to see anything close to that in the real world.

COP = 1/(1 - Th/Tc) thus the theoretical limit can be infinite if the reservoirs are at the same temperature. For the typical geo system ground water might be at 10 °C and the hot water reservoir at 40 °C for theoretical COP = 1/(1 - (273.15 + 15)/(273.15 + 40)) = 12.526

The most efficient systems I'm aware of that are currently available start peaking somewhere above 5 using ground source loops in advantageous situations so the results are dependent upon local ground conditions (temperature and thermal conductivity) and the expense of the install in terms of minimizing pumping losses, etc.

The second law says no machine can be better than a Carnot engine so you aren't going to get anywhere near 12.5. You'd be lucky to get 4 in this example.

Still, when one thinks about it, it's incredible to get just 3-4 times the amount of heat out for every unit of electrical energy expended. This is where the future is headed.

These systems are great for sure especially when run from one's own solar panels but they are expensive and I think a little finicky but other people consider them plug and play. And they are expensive too.

But the purpose of the post was not to explore the wisdom of Sadie Carnot as much as it was to encourage people to check their facts before posting.

 

[ajdelange]

Just saw a reference to Musk saying that grid capacity would have to double to insure full BEV adoption. Based on the earlier estimate here of a BEV adding 30% to the average American households consumption that would require each to buy 3 BEV. Wonder what he was thinking?

 

[fritter63]

For example I'm currently in southern Germany near the alps (escaped from the lockdown state of oz) and the building we're in now is one we built with steel skinned SIPS panels and hemp insulation.

Trying to wrap my head around that. The EPS inside the SIPs is made from hemp? Or you used hemp for additional insulation?

I had asked our structural engineer for SIPS on the "normal" walls but he didn't seem to like them here in earthquake land. But for the most part, our house is straw bale walls (post and beam with 3 string bale (2 feet thick)) infill. R-45ish, all passive solar (heated and cooled). We have no HVAC at all. It works well. Most of our power usage is the electric appliances since I refused to have propane. The on demand (Steibel-eltron) water heater is the biggest offender, on my list to replace that with a heat pump tank water heater.

 

[ajdelange]

..our house is straw bale walls (post and beam with 3 string bale (2 feet thick)) infill. R-45ish, all passive solar (heated and cooled). We have no HVAC at all. It works well.

Confused by this. Do you have a solar driven ammonia absorption system?

The on demand (Steibel-eltron) water heater is the biggest offender, on my list to replace that with a heat pump tank water heater.

I don't know what's available but the conceptual problem here is that if you have cold ground water and you want nominal 145 °F DHW the COPs don't look so good and the high side pressures get way up there so while it is pretty common to use a desuperheater to get DHW most of the way to where you want it a bit of electric or propane are often used to get the last 29 ° or so. At low COP you are effectively heating with electricity anyway.

I understand that R410a is on the way out so perhaps the picture is brighter with some new refrigerant.