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Crissa

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Robots could take over 20 million jobs by 2030, study claims

PUBLISHED WED, JUN 26 201910:28 AM EDTUPDATED WED, JUN 26 201911:21 AM EDT

KEY POINTS
  • Economists analyzed long-term trends around the uptake of automation in the workplace, noting that the number of robots in use worldwide increased threefold over the past two decades to 2.25 million.
  • While researchers predicted the rise of robots will bring about benefits in terms of productivity and economic growth, they also acknowledged the drawbacks that were expected to arise simultaneously.
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PhonlamaiPhoto | Getty Images

Robots could take over 20 million manufacturing jobs around the world by 2030, economists claimed Wednesday.

According to a new study from Oxford Economics, within the next 11 years there could be 14 million robots put to work in China alone.

Economists analyzed long-term trends around the uptake of automation in the workplace, noting that the number of robots in use worldwide increased threefold over the past two decades to 2.25 million.

While researchers predicted the rise of robots will bring about benefits in terms of productivity and economic growth, they also acknowledged the drawbacks that were expected to arise simultaneously.

ā€œAs a result of robotization, tens of millions of jobs will be lost, especially in poorer local economies that rely on lower-skilled workers. This will therefore translate to an increase in income inequality,ā€ the studyā€™s authors said.

However, if robot installations were boosted to 30% more than the baseline forecast by 2030, researchers estimated it would lead to a 5.3% boost in global GDP that year.
ā€œThis equates to adding an extra $4.9 trillion per year to the global economy by 2030 (in todayā€™s prices) ā€” equivalent to an economy greater than the projected size of Germanyā€™s,ā€ the report said.

Regional vulnerabilities
According to the report, the number of robots installed in workplaces in the past four years is the same as the number put to work over the eight years previous.

Approximately every third robot in industry is now installed in China, researchers found, with the worldā€™s second-largest economy accounting for around one-in-five of the global stock of robots.
It was predicted that by 2030, more than 1.5 million jobs would have been lost to robots in the United States. In China, that number was expected to exceed 11 million. Across EU member states, almost 2 million people would lose out on employment because of automation, the report said.
When it came to job losses, the most vulnerable states in the U.S. included Texas, Louisiana and Indiana, with Oregon named the most susceptible to the negative effects of automation.

The regions of Chemnitz, Thuringen and Oberfranken were most vulnerable in Germany, while the Midlands and North West of England were Britainā€™s most vulnerable regions.



Creating new policies
Despite the threat of job losses, the report urged lawmakers not to prohibit the rise of automation.
ā€œThese findings should not lead policy-makers and other stakeholders to seek to frustrate the adoption of robot technology. Instead the challenge should be to distribute the robotics dividend more evenly by helping vulnerable workers prepare for and adapt to the upheaval it will bring,ā€ the researchers said.

Researchers suggested that governments could incentivize companies and workers with financial benefits for engaging in local programs to retrain workers. They also called on policymakers to develop ā€œaggressive, forward-thinking programsā€ to counteract the negative impacts of automation.

ā€œExplore all policy options, from infrastructure investments to training initiatives and innovative welfare programs such as universal basic income,ā€ the report suggested.

Workers were also advised to ā€œauditā€ their own jobs to better understand the balance between the human skills it required and skills that could potentially be taken over by a machine.
ā€œAdopt a ā€˜lifetime learningā€™ mindset,ā€ researchers said. ā€œThere are no jobs for life.ā€

robots-could-take-over-20-million-jobs-by-2030-study-claims.html
 

Crissa

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And what is really sad and scary is the current cancel culture if you dare mention certain "off-limits" subjects you get banned and run out of town. Living the "1984" nightmare.
https://xkcd.com/1357/
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"I can't remember where I heard this, but someone once said that defending a position by citing free speech is sort of the ultimate concession; you're saying that the most compelling thing you can say for your position is that it's not literally illegal to express." - Randall Munroe

-Crissa
 

DarinCT

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I've read article after article saying the robot revolution is coming! The robots are coming! The original AI conference was in 1956 where they thought the problems of artificial intelligence would be solved within a couple of years. 50 years later, Boston Dynamics has a robot that doesn't tip over.

I'll believe it when it's already here.
 

Crissa

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Well, Boston Dynamics has a robot that doesn't tip over and Tesla has a robot that can see every surface around it and map it in 3D space and Google has an AI that can sort my photos by who and what are in them.

-Crissa
 

Delusional

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The invention of effective pistols created a period with a lot more assassinations. Archduke Franz Ferdinand, whose assassination started World War I, is the most famous victim, but hardly the only one. Weā€™re in the start of a new Golden Age of Assassination. Drones will get smaller, more deadly and harder to stop. More and more will become autonomous, so that they canā€™t be jammed.

The New York Times has an article about how Isreal assassinated an Iranian nuclear scientist.
" Israelā€™s Mossad used an AI assisted 1 ton machine gun robot. Its parts were detached, smuggled into Iran and assembled inside Iran. The robot used facial recognition to recognize the target."

Drones have started as weapons by which elites terrorize the weak, and autonomous robots, especially, seem like a dream come true for the powerful. The great problem of power is always the Praetorian one: you need enforcers, and the more you insist on being far richer and out of touch with the commons, the more you need them, but the less you can trust them: whatever the pretense, they become mercenaries, and people who fight for money are never reliable. Robots seem like the perfect solution, allowing elites to have a much smaller enforcement class; just the people who create and repair them.

But it probably will not favor elites as much as they think, because it isnā€™t actually a hard tech: itā€™s hard to pioneer, but once it is pioneered, it will spread and it will be used against elites.
Unless, of course, they can control the precursors, things like computer chips. Seems unlikely.
 

NiceGuyMax

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This thread is about our almighty overlordsā€¦ robots. Please see the thread down the street regarding politics. It is next to the one about religion.
Oh, you mean the ones I ignore.? :p
 
 
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