How long before ICE is out? (New ICE truck sales drop)

[Ogre]

Picture this. You are the CEO of Ford, GM, or Ram. Your bread and butter is trucks. Over the past 2-3 years, Tesla has pretty much demolished the luxury/ premium sedan market in the US and is pretty a pretty nasty hit in the same market in Europe. Now Tesla is entering the truck market.

Tesla has announced hundreds of thousands of pre-sales on their electric trucks. Rumors suggest that number might actually be in the millions. You've dabbled in EVs for a few years, but have few sales and little profits to show for your efforts. For some companies, every EV sold has been at a loss.

Tesla is selling their truck with a range you can't match and at a price you can't sell into profitably.

What do you do?

Ford -> Tries to compete, likely selling trucks at a loss.
GM -> Trying to tap their premium customers to build expertise and scale.
Dodge -> "We'll do trucks in 4 years and kick y'all's asses".
Toyota -> "Lets talk about fuel cells..."
Nissan -> "Even our ICE trucks are barely profitable..."

Which of these is a winning strategy?

How many years before it's difficult to sell ICE trucks? 3? 5? 10?

I know there are problems and uses that will be tough for EVs to conquer for a long time. Just curious about the mainstream truck buyer here.

 

[Crissa]

I think trucks will be a tough nut to crack. So many trucks are ancient.

But the operational advantages of electrical drivetrains. Even hybrids are useful here; all trains have been 'hybrid' for years. And regenerative braking is becoming a bigger thing as batteries are easier to come by.

-Crissa

 

[John K]

For clarity, do you mean new vehicles sold or all vehicles on the road?

US or global?

I am in the significantly greater than 10 years category

 

[Ogre]

For clarity, do you mean new vehicles sold or all vehicles on the road?

I think trucks will be a tough nut to crack. So many trucks are ancient.

Yeah. I was thinking more in terms of new truck sales not used. Totally agree that used trucks will be around for a long time.

I would edit the poll but you can't edit the question apparently.

Edit: And really... just consumer pick up trucks. Long haul trucks, garbage trucks, etc will be much harder to get moved over.

 

[SpaceYooper]

Never say never, but it's more then 10 years away for sure.

 

[Quicksilver]

One big thing will be the availability and cost of diesel fuel and gasoline.
The more EV's on the road the less demand for dino fuel.
As liquid fuel production drops the price will go up (Economics 101).
Even if some ICE vehicles can't be replaced with pure electrics at some point in time the legacy automakers may not be able to make them at a profit (assuming they are still in business).
It would be ironic if they reached a point where they made money on their electrics and lost money on the ICE trucks.

 

[Ogre]

One big thing will be the availability and cost of diesel fuel and gasoline.
The more EV's on the road the less demand for dino fuel.
As liquid fuel production drops the price will go up (Economics 101).
Even if some ICE vehicles can't be replaced with pure electrics at some point in time the legacy automakers may not be able to make them at a profit (assuming they are still in business).
It would be ironic if they reached a point where they made money on their electrics and lost money on the ICE trucks.

The economics of gasoline is going to be weird.

Usually, demand drops, price goes down. But the cost of gas has some pretty firm stops on the way down. Cost of shipping, cost of refining, cost of extracting.

States like California where they have stricter laws on refining fuel and EV demand is highest will be hit first as it becomes less profitable to refine fuel, the remaining refineries will crank up prices to capture profits...

As a side-note, personally I think taxing fuel would be a better way of encouraging EV adoption than EV incentives. Call it the California Forest Fire relief tax and have all the money go directly to forest fire prevention and fighting efforts.

 

[tmeyer3]

As a side-note, personally I think taxing fuel would be a better way of encouraging EV adoption than EV incentives.

You already do
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=10&t=10

The average is around $.50/gallon, 12-18%, varies widely

 

[Ogre]

You already do
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=10&t=10

The average is around $.50/gallon, 12-18%, varies widely

Yeah, I'm aware of existing gas taxes. They don't even cover the cost of roads let alone provide any revenue to relieve the offset climate change caused by burning the fuel.

 

[tmeyer3]

I think light duty, consumer and fleet trucks are going to see the highest EV adoption. There's going to a critical point where folks are going to realize that a higher upfront cost for an electric truck, will save them a significant amount of money over the course of 200k+ miles of driving. Especially in the logistics of fleet vehicles.

For personal use, the electric drive train just makes sense for trucks. I can't think of a situation in which the immediate torque, no transmission or power band to chase around, and ability to be recharged at home won't attract a huge margin of light duty truck users.
Yeah, heavy towing is a bit iffy still, but a huge number of truck owners need the hauling more and only occasionally tow.

 

[jhogan2424]

Don’t forget we still have other options too. E85/E100 can power many ice cars built today and of course there is biodiesel. It may take quite a while for BEV to be viable in trucking so I expect these options will be available for a very long time.

 

[firsttruck]

You already do
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=10&t=10

The average is around $.50/gallon, 12-18%, varies widely

That is peanuts compared to just the damage to the environment of fossil fuel air pollution & water pollution, and the negative health effects on the population.

The EU countries have it right with gas taxes in the order of $2-$3 gallon.

Right now private companies profit & society pays for negative externalities

 

[Ogre]

That is peanuts compared to just the damage to the environment of fossil fuel air pollution & water pollution, and the negative health effects on the population.

The EU has it right with gas taxes in the order of $2-$3 gallon.

This is more what I had in mind.

Tax increases in the US are political suicide though. I do think emphasizing exact places where the funds will be used might make it more palatable though.

 

[tmeyer3]

That is peanuts compared to just the damage to the environment of fossil fuel air pollution & water pollution, and the negative health effects on the population.

The EU countries have it right with gas taxes in the order of $2-$3 gallon.

I totally agree! Just putting the numbers out there.

 

[tmeyer3]

This is more what I had in mind.

Tax increases in the US are political suicide though. I do think emphasizing exact places where the funds will be used might make it more palatable though.

I do wonder though...

The US population didn't cry too hard with increases in alcohol and tobacco taxes. But when it comes to fuel, I think many would see it as base corruption to limit their freedom to burn all the Dubai juice. Even with an affordable alternative.