Hiro Mizuno: disappointed in Toyota & other Japanese auto makers. Wake Up.

[firsttruck]

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** video cued to Hiro Mizuno

Jim Farley on Tesla and T3 / Tesla Vision Video Tests / Tesla Safety Score V2
Mar 24, 2023
Electrified

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Hiromichi Mizuno (born in Tajimi in Gifu Prefecture, Japan)
United Nations Special Envoy on Innovative Finance and Sustainable Investments. (since Dec 2020).
Former director and chief investment officer of Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF). (Jan 2015 - Mar 2020).
Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings from 1988 to 2003.
Partner of Coller Capital from 2003 to 2005.
Corporate boards:
1. Tesla, Inc., Independent Member of the Board of Directors (since 2020)
2. Danone, Member of the Mission Committee (since 2020)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hiromichi_Mizuno

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[cvalue13]

** video cued to Hiro Mizuno

just after that, he does a hack job “comparison” of Tesla EBIT in 2016 compared to Ford’s EV unit last year, as comparisons

Jeez I wish I could find a source for more rigorous information about the EV market. one direction or the other, it’s just click-tube soundbite after dig

may as well be watching RT and MSNBC

EDIT TO AD: technically he was just regurgitating someone else’s “work,” but passing it off as “nice”

 

[firsttruck]

just after that, he does a hack job “comparison” of Tesla EBIT in 2016 compared to Ford’s EV unit last year, as comparisons

Jeez I wish I could find a source for more rigorous information about the EV market. one direction or the other, it’s just click-tube soundbite after dig

may as well be watching RT and MSNBC

The analysis was not done by (Electrified, Dillon Loomis). It was done by "Forward Cap".

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video cued to Farzad's comparison of 2017 Tesla to 2022 Ford Model e

Ford CONFIRMS Tesla Has Already Won.
Mar 23, 2023
Farzad Mesbahi

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Comparing 2 Dozen Automakers' Operating Cash Flows
created and tweeted a fresh chart showing the last several years of Operating Cash Flows reported by 24 automakers for ease of comparison.
James Stephenson
Mar 24, 2023

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Profit Per Employee - GM vs Ford vs Tesla
James Stephenson
Mar 21, 2023

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[jerhenderson]

Based on this Ford..... and therefore GM..... is doomed.

 

[cvalue13]

Based on this Ford..... and therefore GM..... is doomed.

you doom horny

 

[FutureBoy]

you doom horny

Doesn't make it wrong.

 

[cvalue13]

video cued to Farzad's comparison of 2017 Tesla to 2022 Ford Model e

I’m not even a public company CFO, but feel I don’t have to watch much of this to why these ‘Tesla’s [X] year compared to Ford’s [X] year’ comparisons are silly.

but let’s humor it.

guy takes Ford E’s YE 2022 numbers, and Ford’s projections for YE 2026, where Ford projects 8% EBIT on a pre-tax basis

he then repeats, 6+ times, a “1 to 1 comparison” (and several other times an “apples to apples comparison) to Tesla’s YE 2017 to YE 2022 numbers on a “1 to 1” 5-year period

But before we take that “1 to 1” on its face:

• let’s for fun ignore that Ford in 2022 and not until 2024 will it have built a single ground-up BEV platform vehicle in a built-for-purpose plant

• let’s for fun skip over that Ford e-division’s breakout is retail only, and doesn’t include Ford’s fleet division, which fleet includes a significant portion of both Lightning and van EV sales (and which division posted a 28% margin in 2022) and will likely continue to disproportionately between now and 2027, not reflected in its e-division’s projections

• let’s for fun skip over that, compared to the 5 year period 2017-2022, the cost of capital is roughly 5% higher in 2022-2027 and that any responsible forecast in 2023 would be far more conservative about economic headwinds

• let’s for fun skip over that by 2017 Tesla had a 9+ year history of deep “losses” (R&D costs, scaling, etc.) despite enormous offsets from federal credits, and for the “comparison” to “jump in” at Tesla circa 2017 ignores both the investment boost and the balance sheet drag that represents to Tesla’s cumulative balance sheet

• let’s for fun ignore that in 2022 Ford spent $7.8B on R&D, 70% of which was attributable to its BEV manufacturing ($5.6B) which $5.6B is roughly the amount Tesla spent in R&D across years 2017-2020

• let’s for fun ignore that in 2017 Tesla had $28B in assets on hand, while in 2022 Ford had $258B

• let’s for fun ignore that the fact Ford sells ICE vehicles likely requires a different scaling strategy and pace compared to Tesla

ignoring all that, for fun, let’s merely say that:

(1) this guy looks at Tesla from FY 2017 to YE 2022, which is a 6 year accounting period

(2) compares it to Ford’s stub-year 2022 to YE 2026, which is a <5 year accounting period

(3) and basically says, “we can probably guess that 2027 will be like 2026 for Ford” - essentially putting words in Ford’s mouth that Ford projects the same 8% EBIT in 2027 that it purports for 2026

WTF?

since when is a “1 to 1” and “apples to apples” comparison simultaneously comparing a 6yr to a <5yr accounting period, and just making up Ford’s 2027 EBIT projection for fun?

these YouTube clowns. Give me a break

PS: he also doesn’t understand that Ford’s 96K BEV unit production in 2022 appears to include approx 30K units “sold” to the fleet business unit (which enjoys 28% margins), meaning that the entire basis of his 2017-2022 Tesla comparison is wrong (the Ford e division financials don’t reflect the fleet upside realized in that division)

I’m all for dissecting and understanding trends, but these guys clearly come to the numbers with a conclusion in mind, view the data through that lens, and THEN proceed to dumb it down for clicks

 

[Crissa]

He's saying Ford is at least seven years behind Tesla.

-Crissa

 

[cvalue13]

Doesn't make it wrong.

see immediately prior post

it may not be wrong, but if so, it’s not for any reason he is basing his comments on

 

[cvalue13]

He's saying Ford is at least seven years behind Tesla.

-Crissa

what?

he purports to be extrapolating from a “start” at Tesla in 2017 to what he argues is a parallel “start” at Ford e in 2022, then discusses it as though what Tesla accomplishes in 2022 is a parallel to what Ford projects it will accomplish in 2027 - from that he concludes that even at 2027 many scale Ford will be lightyears behind what Tesla accomplished by “the same period of time” in 2022

that Ford will be comparatively behind may or may not be true, may or may not be relevant, but in any event won’t be reflected by the “analysis” he performs

 

[charliemagpie]

And VW is spending 140 Billion to develop its EV business, and it will develop a $25,000 EV.

And GM will produce about 2 dozen models by 2021, and lately they are in the car insurance and Megapack business too. Oops..I think its now 50 models by 25/26.

And Ford will ramp to 2 mill by 2025

By then, they will all be trading whilst insolvent!