Elon Talks Economy, Possible Discounting, Demand Issues, Stock Sales, and TSLA on on Twitter Spaces

[LoneWolfO6]

Yes, I am. The market crash of 1987 and the 1991 recession that followed was the first one I witnessed. Since then I've watched and learned in the subsequent ones. It made me fairly conservative with finances. Now I am debt free. Feels awesome.

One example: I am still driving my 2006 daily which I bought as a "leftover" in 2007 with 9 miles on the clock (at a discount). This was paid off in 2010. Yes, that was 13 years ago.
It was worth it to rebuild the engine in 2018 and do more engine work this year.
Here's the old girl:

I felt bad that I didn't buy TSLA when I reserved my CT, but I'll watch the company and the macro situation now.

Yep Teslas were little less expensive in 2019 and you would have been close to paying it off? Wish I would have bought one too before they skyrocketed in price for new and more so used. So much for sustainable energy for everyone?!

 

[LoneWolfO6]

Well 2022 wasn’t actually a recession if you can believe it. There was a really nasty spike in inflation, then 9 solid months of the fed pissing on the markets with aggressive interest rate hikes. Plus Tesla’s own struggles, and Musk stock sales to pay his taxes and to support a (arguably horrible) Twitter purchase. Job loss wasn’t a huge problem, in fact right now the job market is very healthy.

Next year Musk thinks we’ll have an actual recession where there is job loss and GDP destruction. Add in the fed‘s mayhem and it’s potentially a nasty year.

Yes selling stock to pay something is not a good plan, then you owe the IRS on top of the money made with capital gains. Lol

 

[Ogre]

Yes selling stock to pay something is not a good plan, then you owe the IRS on top of the money made with capital gains. Lol

Its too bad there isn’t a “What does this have to do with anything I said?” Reaction emoji because this would be the perfect time to use it.

 

[LoneWolfO6]

Its too bad there isn’t a “What does this have to do with anything I said?” Reaction emoji because this would be the perfect time to use it.

Was referring to this statement,

“Plus Tesla’s own struggles, and Musk stock sales to pay his taxes and to support a (arguably horrible) Twitter purchase.”

 

[Richard V.]

Its too bad there isn’t a “What does this have to do with anything I said?” Reaction emoji because this would be the perfect time to use it.

In Canada there is a Tax Free Saving Account (TFSA). This year it is $6,500. It is cumulative. I am noy sure what the US is doing about this idea. TFSAs can be used to buy stocks. If the stock goes way up you do not have to pay tax on them when you get them out. See here for more if you live in Canada. Contributions - Canada.ca

 

[Richard V.]

Was referring to this statement,

“Plus Tesla’s own struggles, and Musk stock sales to pay his taxes and to support a (arguably horrible) Twitter purchase.”

I am thinking Elon might be able to save Twitter and make it profitable. I would never under estimate Elon, based on what he has been able to do so far. However, I do not plan to invest in Twitter.

 

[Richard V.]

Buy, buy, buy?!

Yes, I am seriously considering. But like they say, you do not want to catch a falling knife. The big question is when... 2023 could be a long year.

 

[Ogre]

Was referring to this statement,

“Plus Tesla’s own struggles, and Musk stock sales to pay his taxes and to support a (arguably horrible) Twitter purchase.”

Musk likely paid very little tax on the Twitter funds because he was taxed on the gains when the options were granted to him at around $1000/ share. (When the grant happened he was taxed on the value of the shares) It’s possible he has a huge loss he can carry forward to offset future gains.

I’m not a tax accountant though.

Somehow I think Musk doesn’t worry overmuch about losing a billion here or there.

 

[Ogre]

In Canada there is a Tax Free Saving Account (TFSA). This year it is $6,500. It is cumulative. I am noy sure what the US is doing about this idea. TFSAs can be used to buy stocks. If the stock goes way up you do not have to pay tax on them when you get them out. See here for more if you live in Canada. Contributions - Canada.ca

In the US it’s called an IRA. Very similar situation I think except when we retire we have crappier healthcare.

 

[LoneWolfO6]

Musk likely paid very little tax on the Twitter funds because he was taxed on the gains when the options were granted to him at around $1000/ share. (When the grant happened he was taxed on the value of the shares) It’s possible he has a huge loss he can carry forward to offset future gains.

I’m not a tax accountant though.

Somehow I think Musk doesn’t worry overmuch about losing a billion here or there.

Lol, thanks

 

[DMC-81]

Yep Teslas were little less expensive in 2019 and you would have been close to paying it off? Wish I would have bought one too before they skyrocketed in price for new and more so used. So much for sustainable energy for everyone?!

No, I was not in the market for a new car (Tesla or otherwise) in 2019. I only wanted to reserve the CT. I was fine with the multi year wait.. better chance to buy with cash or at least a big down-payment.

 

[Ogre]

Lol, thanks

Didn’t mean to sound so dismissive. You are correct. I genuinely didn’t quite connect what you said with what I said originally. I think Musk has a solid chance of pulling Twitter out of the fires, but it feels like he’s dragging the rest of us through the coals to do it.

 

[LoneWolfO6]

Yes, I am seriously considering. But like they say, you do not want to catch a falling knife. The big question is when... 2023 could be a long year.

Lol, Tesla vehicles were not on my radar until 2019, CT changed that.

 

[Cybertruckee]

Interesting times!

I clearly remember "experts" making a call that recession in 2022 with global supply chain issues and the oil/grain situations brought to you by the Russian-Ukraine war.

It did not happen, so it's now in 2023, and they experts and Elon may yet talk us into having one.

And yes, the Feds, while not actually declaring it, may push the interest rates higher that we may have a recession (and believe me, they are willing to have a brief and milder one) in order to fight inflation, their mandate, along with employment.

Working against the ill-wishers, political or otherwise, is the pull factor of very strong consumer demand. Ask the credit card companies seeing strong spending these holiday season.

Easing supply chain issues. No more empty shelves and out-of-stock items. Some have even are facing excess inventories.

Strong employment. There are 2 vacant jobs for every 1 unemployed. The Fed is not seeing an equilibrium soon with companies coming home to roost and relocation back stateside after seeing how having it in China can be disruptive to their operations. Then there is Biden administration's infrastructure law going full blast in repairing bridges, roads and nationwide internet connectivity. Add the administration's incentive program for domestic and on-shore battery and EV production -- coupled with solar and other alternative energy sources development and build. Compound that with Biden's declaration that chips are strategic materials that should be manufactured here and should not be exported to potential hostile countries.

While I'm a practitioner and have studied and read about it since Hoover's Great Depression and his tepid response to the looming and fast developing crisis, FDR's Keynesian response of massive infrastructure projects to generate employment resulting in post war boom, Clinton's correct prescription of looming inflation due to an economic boom and overheating economy by incentivizing production, Obama's addressing Bush Jr's Great Recession with income tax cuts for working families, infrastructure, health care assistance and lender of last resort to struggling companies.

In summary, I don't know. The global economy put in more complexities than the simple push-pull of demand/supply, monetary policies, unique competitiveness of nations, propensity to consume or save, (money) flight to quality, etc.