FSD price increases to $15k September 5th

[Ogre]

Level 4 does exist and has for a couple years.

Elon says we will have Level 5 "next year".

Eh. The only systems which claim to be level 4 are limited to 35 MPH and only on highways. Nearly worthless.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Eh. The only systems which claim to be level 4 are limited to 35 MPH and only on highways. Nearly worthless.

Its much more limited than that. They are geofenced to some place with HD maps. They cannot be used in tunnels or bridges, cannot drive at night or in inclement weather, ... the list of conditions they are not allowed to drive in is so onerous that they 'are' worthless. To say that there are Level 4 systems is to proclaim ignorance, so I think that @Bill906 is joking.

 

[charliemagpie]

In the 80's my mate and I went into town and shared a box of 10 3+1⁄2-inch floppys for $80.

Not long after, I spent $1000 to buy a shoebox size 10 meg hard drive for my Amiga 500.

It won't be long before we have all the chargers we need, all the 4680's we need and our life long AI companion will be driving us home.

 

[rr6013]

I like to drive too and hate being a passenger. That is probably why I am as critical of current FSD functionality as I am. But there will come a time when I don’t trust my driving and I am counting on my FSD investment to keep me mobile.

True. Tesla, Elon Musk and FSD have interjected ”safety” into driving. Critically, FSD “promise” is to make every body safer and everyone safe from their own driving foibles, mistakes, accidents or error.
The other shoe drop, is that not everyone can afford Tesla, FSD and therefor the “promise” is hostage to Robotaxi rents. Which Tesla completes the “promise” piecemeal - ride-at-a-time.

The safety that I can envision someday far, far into future is a subset of FSD. After millions upon millions of accumulated data points, FSD accrues an accuracy around cascading events, accident and human frailty occurances. That subset is what is envisioned by NHTSA folks mandated for all transport vehicles.

That is separate from AP-e, ADAS, FSD and Robotaxi but Tesla could be the patent, license and subscription holder for all cars by edict.

 

[Ogre]

In the 80's my mate and I went into town and shared a box of 10 3+1⁄2-inch floppys for $80.

Not long after, I spent $1000 to buy a shoebox size 10 meg hard drive for my Amiga 500.

It won't be long before we have all the chargers we need, all the 4680's we need and our life long AI companion will be driving us home.

The stupid thing about “The Grid won’t support this many electric cars” in a nutshell right here.

Our infrastructure is evolving over time. It doesn’t need to support a billion cars tomorrow, we have 13+ years before we’ve replaced anywhere near 50% of the fleet.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

FSD means I can stop almost all domestic flying. Pop in the driver seat, FSD and sleep. Wake up in 3 hours, charge, go back to sleep, repeat.

That is what it means to 'you', and I suspect that what you mean is that "FSD" = "Level 5 Autonomy" as defined by the SAE. We are years away from that and maybe it isn't worth $15K to you. I am fine with that. In fact, it isn't worth $15K to me in its current form either, but I reserved it with the 'hope' that it will be good enough for me when the CT arrives or at least some time during my lifetime when I need it.

To some extent more importantly is how Elon Musk defines "FSD". I suspect that he sees it as a suite of functions that would be required for "Level 5 Autonomy" (as defined by the SAE), and that he and his team are working diligently to improve the performance of these features over time. Hence the beta program. There will never be a time when FSD is labeled a beta where it will be anything but beta software. No one releases beta software to the general public, but Tesla cannot hope to improve the performance of these features without a huge number of miles driven with the software in a huge variety of contexts. Hence the beta program and the unwanted media attention.

I have driven my wife's Model 3 with FSD (I haven't done any testing since March when I got my Model Y and have not been invite into the beta program yet) and yes, it was like a drunken teenager in some scenarios and just fine in others. It has improved dramatically in the past 6 months. The sad thing is the hyper awareness required because you are in beta, but that too will change with time.

I see the reservation as an opportunity for me to forego the decision for a few years. Meanwhile, every quantum improvement Tesla makes they increase the price. So 'they' think it is improving, and 'they' have a trajectory they are heading along, and whether or not we choose to participate is entirely our own decision. How many people will pay $15K for FSD when it comes out of beta, and who knows what they will charge for it then, is probably a diminishing number for each such increase, and that may even be strategic on the part of Tesla. They may only want those who intend to use FSD-enabled vehicles (other than themselves) as robotaxis and may not even care about the rest of us. With this kind of pricing it makes sense.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

The stupid thing about “The Grid won’t support this many electric cars” in a nutshell right here.

Our infrastructure is evolving over time. It doesn’t need to support a billion cars tomorrow, we have 13+ years before we’ve replaced anywhere near 50% of the fleet.

Agreed. That (the term 'grid') is also, perhaps, a misnomer in this context. It is true that that the charging infrastructure isn't in place to support a BEV (or several) in every household, but the BEVs aren't there either. But to say that the 'grid' won't support it is the misnomer part. Because ICE cars and their infrastructure are already in place, are like 15% efficient as opposed to more like 95% efficient, and thus we are using much more energy than we should be already. Its just not going to homes. So the 'grid' (thought of as the energy supply) 'can' support it in terms of supply; it (the power) will just need to be redirected away from producing, refining, transporting (etc.) fuel.

There are other issues at play here. For one, in parallel with the increase in BEV adoption we also have an increase in renewable production, an increase in energy storage, and increase in both residential and commercial energy production and storage, and all of these will offset grid-based demand to some degree.

 

[Ogre]

That is what it means to 'you', and I suspect that what you mean is that "FSD" = "Level 5 Autonomy" as defined by the SAE. We are years away from that and maybe it isn't worth $15K to you. I am fine with that. In fact, it isn't worth $15K to me in its current form either, but I reserved it with the 'hope' that it will be good enough for me when the CT arrives or at least some time during my lifetime when I need it.

Last night I drove from Seattle down to Eugene. It was about 5 hours with stops. Being able to zone out during that drive would be awesome. I was able to Autopilot most of it, but I don’t want to fiddle with the steering wheel. Nor do I want to pay attention to freeway exchanges which are moderately confusing going through Portland. I’d far prefer passengering with hands off.

I’m fairly sure that’s less than 10 years out. It’s likely within 2-5 years.

The SAE designations are nonsense. We’ll have something quite useful far before “Level 5” is online.

 

[MikeX]

I didn't add FSD when I made my initial reservation. Now that it's going from 12k to 15k I can't figure out how to add it so I can lock it in at $12k. Is this possible or am I screwed?

 

[Ogre]

I didn't add FSD when I made my initial reservation. Now that it's going from 12k to 15k I can't figure out how to add it so I can lock it in at $12k. Is this possible or am I screwed?

Folks who skipped FSD at launch are screwed. I did order a second one with FSD much later but regret not locking in $7k.


Could be much worse actually, because by the time the truck ships FSD might be more than $15k.

 

[Cybr on]

September 5th is when FSD goes up.

I didn't add FSD when I made my initial reservation. Now that it's going from 12k to 15k I can't figure out how to add it so I can lock it in at $12k. Is this possible or am I screwed?

that really sucks Mike, but maybe if you went back into your account you will be able to change to FSD. I’m not sure, but maybe someone here knows better and will speak up. Imho I think if you were to go into your account to make a change, it might have the ability for you to get FSD for 12k. If you don’t see that you can, and have questions about this, check with tesla. Maybe they can help.
Sept.4th if I’m not mistaken is the last day. Sept. 5th FSD goes up
To 15k.

 

[Bill906]

Eh. The only systems which claim to be level 4 are limited to 35 MPH and only on highways. Nearly worthless.

Its much more limited than that. They are geofenced to some place with HD maps. They cannot be used in tunnels or bridges, cannot drive at night or in inclement weather, ... the list of conditions they are not allowed to drive in is so onerous that they 'are' worthless. To say that there are Level 4 systems is to proclaim ignorance, so I think that @Bill906 is joking.

The following screenshot is from SAE.org, the organization that defines the levels:

Everyone seems to make up their own definition of the levels, but if you look at how Level 4 is defined, it describes the taxi systems currently in use as Level 4.

If a vehicle can drive itself without a human driver, but there are limits in place (geofence, time of day, specific roads etc.) It has reached Level 4 of driving automation.

 

[Ogre]

The following screenshot is from SAE.org, the organization that defines the levels:

Everyone seems to make up their own definition of the levels, but if you look at how Level 4 is defined, it describes the taxi systems currently in use as Level 4.

If a vehicle can drive itself without a human driver, but there are limits in place (geofence, time of day, specific roads etc.) It has reached Level 4 of driving automation.

You are correct. I was thinking more of the other ADAS systems which claim to be L4.

Though Waymo/ Cruise is a big part of why I think these levels are pointless. Cruise is Level 4… except it only operates when there are very few other vehicles on the road and in a fairly tight geographical area. Waymo is L4 but can’t take you from Chandler into neighboring downtown Phoenix.

I know this is literally the definition of Level 4… but that’s kind of my point. I make a car that only drives between here and Oakridge 35 miles up the road and it’s “Level 4”. Completely worthless for most people but meets the definition.

These services have fairly tight restrictions on when and where they can operate.

 

[Bill906]

You are correct. I was thinking more of the other ADAS systems which claim to be L4.

Though Waymo/ Cruise is a big part of why I think these levels are pointless. Cruise is Level 4… except it only operates when there are very few other vehicles on the road and in a fairly tight geographical area. Waymo is L4 but can’t take you from Chandler into neighboring downtown Phoenix.

I know this is literally the definition of Level 4… but that’s kind of my point. I make a car that only drives between here and Oakridge 35 miles up the road and it’s “Level 4”. Completely worthless for most people but meets the definition.

These services have fairly tight restrictions on when and where they can operate.

Agreed. There's no defining how much limitation. If it can do anything but has a geofence limit that it's not allowed outside of Ogregon, that's level 4. If it can only go down a 100 ft road during the day, at speeds no higher than 5 MPH, that is also level 4.

Now that I think about it, could the "Smart Summon" feature currently available on Tesla's with FSD be considered Level 4? It is driverless but severely limited. ?

 

[Luke42]

I didn't add FSD when I made my initial reservation. Now that it's going from 12k to 15k I can't figure out how to add it so I can lock it in at $12k. Is this possible or am I screwed?

Define screwed?

Y'all are assuming that FSD is a sure-thing, that there's a 100% chance that FSD will meet the hype.

I feel there's a good chance that FSD will never match the hype, and so I apply the Expected Value equation:
expected_value_of_FSD = chance_of_FSD_success * fsd_value_to_you

if (expected_value_of_FSD > cost_of_fsd) {
buy_fsd();
} else {
dont_buy_fsd();
}

I'm personally skeptical of FSD's chances of reaching the hype, so I put the chance of it working out at about 15%. It's worth mentioning that the use-case that I care about is a level of autonomy allowing the CT to drive my kids places without me in the vehicle, before they're all old enough to have driver's licenses. If I'm in the car, Autopilot suits me just fine, so the use-case that I care about is turning the CT into a dedicated family Uber service. My guess is that there's about a 15% chance of FSD working out for this purpose in the timeframe I need.

I'm willing to pay $10,000 * 15% = $1500 for FSD now, assuming that the CT will be able to be a dedicated/automated Uber service for my family before my youngest can get her driver's license.

Your numbers will be different based on the specifics of your situation, so the amount you're willing to pay will almost certainly be different from mine.

Other people will judge FSD's chances for success differently than I do and come up with a different answer. That's great! However, I was out at $7k - Musk's pricing on FSD doesn't work for me.

As someone else said, I'll be happy driving my super-fast electric truck myself. In the happy event where I'm wrong, I'll just pay the market price for FSD at that time.