Is $TSLA going to 600.00?

[TruckElectric]

India bans wheat exports as heatwave hurts crop, domestic prices soar
By Rajendra Jadhav
and Mayank Bhardwaj

A combine deposits harvested wheat in a tractor trolley at a field on the outskirts of Ahmedabad, India, March 16, 2022. REUTERS/Amit Dave

• Summary
• Ban could push global wheat prices to new peaks
• India was aiming to export 10 mln T wheat prior to the ban
• Heatwave dents size of wheat crop, lifts prices
• Govt buying falls more than 50% from year ago

MUMBAI, May 14 (Reuters) - India banned wheat exports on Saturday, just days after saying it was targeting record shipments this year, as a scorching heatwave curtailed output and domestic prices soared to an all-time high.
Reporting by Rajendra Jadhav in Mumbai and Mayank Bhardwaj in New Delhi; Editing by William Mallard & Simon Cameron-Moore
https://www.reuters.com/markets/com...eat-exports-with-immediate-effect-2022-05-14/

India bans wheat exports with immediate effect
PUBLISHED FRI, MAY 13 202211:08 PM EDTUPDATED 2 HOURS AGO

KEY POINTS

• India has prohibited wheat exports with immediate effect, the government said in a notification late on Friday.
• The world’s second-biggest wheat producer is trying to calm local prices.
• Global buyers were banking on the world’s second-biggest wheat producer for supplies after exports from the Black Sea region plunged following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February.

India, the world’s second-biggest wheat producer, has blocked all exports of the grain with immediate effect.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

India banned wheat exports with immediate effect on Saturday, just days after saying it was targeting record shipments this year, as a scorching heatwave curtailed output and local prices hit an all-time high amid strong export demand.

The government said it would still allow exports for letters of credit that have already been issued and on the request from countries that are trying “to meet their food security needs.”

Global buyers were banking on the world’s second-biggest wheat producer for supplies after exports from the Black Sea region plunged following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February. Prior to the ban, India was targeting to ship out a record 10 million tonnes this year.
The Indian ban could drive up global prices to new peaks and hit poor consumers in Asia and Africa.

“The ban is shocking,” a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trading firm said. “We were expecting curbs on exports after 2-3 months, but seems inflation numbers changed government’s mind.”

Rising food and energy prices pushed India’s annual retail inflation up towards an eight-year high in April, strengthening economists’ view that the central bank would have to raise interest rates more aggressively to curb prices.

Wheat prices in India have risen to record high, in some spot markets to as high as 25,000 rupees ($322.71) per tonne, versus government fixed minimum support price of 20,150 rupees.

Heat wave shrinks crop
Earlier this week, India outlined its record export target for the 2022/23 fiscal year that started on April 1, adding it would send trade delegations to countries such as Morocco, Tunisia, Indonesia and Philippines to explore ways to further boost shipments.

But a sharp and sudden rise in temperatures in mid-March means the crop size could be smaller than expected at around 100 million tonnes or even lower, a New Delhi-based dealer with a global trading firm said, versus a government estimate for an all-time high of 111.32 million tonnes.

“The government’s procurement has fallen more than 50%. Spot markets are getting far lower supplies than last year. All these things are indicating lower crop,” the dealer said.

In April, India exported a record 1.4 million tonnes of wheat and deals were already signed to export around 1.5 million tonnes in May.

“Indian ban will lift global wheat prices. Right now there is no big supplier in the market,” the second dealer said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/14/india-blocks-all-wheat-exports-with-immediate-effect.html


India bans wheat exports with immediate effect
Notably, Centre has revised downwards estimate for wheat production to 105 MT in the 2021-22 crop year from the earlier projection of 111.32 MT

New Delhi, May 14

In a major U-turn amid calls for ban/cap to curb rising prices, India last night decided to ban wheat exports with immediate effect.
https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/india-bans-wheat-exports-with-immediate-effect-394772

 

[SpaceYooper]

The time to short the stock is when it’s near it’s 52 week high. The time to short was November. By this time, most of the juice has already been squeezed out of it. Lots of risk shorting, not a ton of returns.

Look at Rivian. I don’t think the company has a great chance long term, but I wouldn’t short it either. Time to Short Rivian was above $100/ share.

I'm sure you are right. I'm also sure people would have made that same argument Dec 20th after it dropped from over $1200 to under $900. They would have made greater returns holding the short position to under $700 or less depending on what the next couple months hold. Then again...people who get greedy trying to time things perfectly rarely see their full gains.

 

[TruckElectric]

Drip, drip, drip.......

 

[Ogre]

I'm sure you are right. I'm also sure people would have made that same argument Dec 20th after it dropped from over $1200 to under $900. They would have made greater returns holding the short position to under $700 or less depending on what the next couple months hold. Then again...people who get greedy trying to time things perfectly rarely see their full gains.

The thing about shorting a stock like Tesla is timing is everything.

If you shorted the stock at 900 and covered when? If you had perfect timing you’d have covered when it dipped below $700 you get a ~25% return over 3 months. If you shorted when it was $1200, your returns were ~45%. (I’m not exactly sure how returns are calculated on shorts, assuming based on original money at risk here). The risks were the same, rewards much higher.

What are the chances Tesla dips to $400/ share? That’s the kind of damage you’d need to see in order to get comparable returns shorting right now.

Maybe with some unmitigated disaster at Fremont or Berlin or Shanghai.

 

[Ogre]

This means Berlin wages are doubling. Definitely Bearish.





Spiraling employee costs are a bad sign, short now!

/s

?

 

[TruckElectric]

If you shorted the stock at 900 and covered when?

Why cover?

If you had perfect timing you’d have covered when it dipped below $700 you get a ~25% return over 3 months.

Why cover?

Maybe with some unmitigated disaster at Fremont or Berlin or Shanghai.

 

[Ogre]

Why cover?



Why cover?

How else do you realize profits?

 

[TruckElectric]

How else do you realize profits?

Options are NOT the only way to short a stock. Go to your broker and "borrow shares" of the stock, establishing a short position(on margin). When you are ready to cash in just return the "borrowed shares".

 

[TruckElectric]

Options are NOT the only way to short a stock. Go to your broker and "borrow shares" of the stock, establishing a short position(on margin). When you are ready to cash in just return the "borrowed shares".

I forgot SSF - Single Stock Futures

 

[Ogre]

Options are NOT the only way to short a stock. Go to your broker and "borrow shares" of the stock, establishing a short position(on margin). When you are ready to cash in just return the "borrowed shares".

I was assuming a short, not options. You don’t “return the borrowed shares” you have to buy/ cover them. That’s the whole point, you borrow shares, then sell them. Before you can return them you have to buy them back.

Do you expect there are a lot of people who have held Tesla short positions for 3 years?

 

[TruckElectric]

That’s the whole point, you borrow shares, then sell them. Before you can return them you have to buy them back.

HAHA! You can't buy/sell stock shares you don't own! Hence "borrowed". You can't short stocks you own.

 

[Ogre]

HAHA! You can't buy/sell stock shares you don't own! Hence "borrowed". You can't short stocks you own.

You forgot to add the ‘/s’ at the end of your post or something to indicate you are joking.


You are joking right?


Otherwise… Hard to have a conversation when someone is completely wrong and completely convinced they are right.


From the Wikipedia page:

There are a number of ways of achieving a short position. The most fundamental method is "physical" selling short or short-selling, which involves borrowing assets (often securities such as shares or bonds) and selling them.​

 

[TruckElectric]

You forgot to add the ‘/s’ at the end of your post or something to indicate you are joking.


You are joking right?


Otherwise… Hard to have a conversation when someone is completely wrong and completely convinced they are right.


From the Wikipedia page:

There are a number of ways of achieving a short position. The most fundamental method is "physical" selling short or short-selling, which involves borrowing assets (often securities such as shares or bonds) and selling them.​

Never go to Wikipedia for detailed, accurate information.

When you establish a short position,you BORROW shares from a broker and return them hoping the price has fallen from when you BORROWED the shares and you pocket the difference.

 

[Ogre]

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/short.asp

Please just stop this silliness.

I’m embarrassed for you.

 

[John K]

Never go to Wikipedia for detailed, accurate information.

When you establish a short position,you BORROW shares from a broker and return them hoping the price has fallen from when you BORROWED the shares and you pocket the difference.

After borrowing the shares, you sell those borrowed shares. At the end, you buy the same amount of shares, multiplied if split and return the shares to the borrowed source.

If the shares borrowed are never sold, there are no potential profits to be made, no difference to be pocketed. The lender does not want money, they want their shares backs.

If stock is purchased on margin, the risk is potentially the whole price of the stock.

If you borrow stock to short, the potential risk is unlimited.

Why do you think there is no sell and buy phase when shorting stock?