Ford to build 600k EV's/yr by end of next year and has 2nd EV truck in the works

[Crissa]

I don't know where they're going to get that many batteries. They haven't explained.

I don't doubt their ability to make truck bodies, but... this is their second doubling of their 2023 production target and how dis they just invent four more battery factories when none of their own are scheduled to come online until there second iteration truck in 2025?

-Crissa

 

[Throwcomputer]

I don't know where they're going to get that many batteries. They haven't explained.

I don't doubt their ability to make truck bodies, but... this is their second doubling of their 2023 production target and how dis they just invent four more battery factories when none of their own are scheduled to come online until there second iteration truck in 2025?

-Crissa

Exactly. Braggadocio and saber rattling for wall Street. Ironic cause he literally made fun of Tesla for doing the same thing earlier in the presentation!

 

[Dusty]

It’s going to be extremely hard for Ford (or anyone) to make trucks profitably and price competitive with Tesla. It’s going to be weird seeing Ford try and compete when they are the high cost provider.

Ford is going to have a very bad year. Every owner on the Lightning list isn't buying an ICE F150 between now and delivery unless they get stuck like Chuck and need a truck ASAP. The buyer reasoning that will wreck Ford's sales:

- I like Ford Trucks and I want a Lightning.
- I would like to buy an F150 but I'll wait because my current vehicle will last until I get a Lightning.
- I'm officially on the list so I will wait.

That person is a percentage of people on a 200,000 long waiting list. If Ford makes 25k lightning this year and (I'll be generous) 75,000 next year there's a huge number of people on that list that will not buy an F150 during that year. And remember, every Lightning Ford sells is less of a profit than an ICE F150 (possibly a loss due to pricing and supply costs). The Lightning may accelerate their losses.

Ford's electrification plan relies on profits from ICE F150 sales, their only real profit maker. Ford sales over all have been dropping by (I recall) 7% per year for the past 7 years. Unless they based their profit projections on declining sales, their situation is headed downhill on roller-skates.

Their yearly EV deliveries won't match one quarter of Tesla production. If the CT comes online by Q2 2023... yikes. That will prevent stealing sales from Tesla via CT attrition.

GM is in the same boat.

 

[CyberGus]

They aren’t going to put a dent in Cybertruck sales

I see what you did there

 

[CyberGus]

The faster that competition heats up, the faster Elon gets his ass in gear.

(pardon the anachronistic ICE idiom)

 

[Ogre]

I don't know how Ford is going to be at a capacity of 600k by end of next year. Based on what I've heard from Farley and other executives:

F150 Lightning: 150k
Mach E: 200k
E-Transit: 100k
Total: 450k

There are no plans for new vehicle lines that I'm aware of. The other troubling thing is look at Mach E sales over last year. Not exactly increasing in production in correlation to their stated demand.

The are talking about a new Lincoln or 2 I think.

I seriously doubt they will hit any of the above targets, let alone all of them plus some unknown 150k.

It would be quite impressive if they post half those numbers.

 

[Ogre]

Ford is going to have a very bad year. Every owner on the Lightning list isn't buying an ICE F150 between now and delivery unless they get stuck like Chuck and need a truck ASAP. The buyer reasoning that will wreck Ford's sales:

- I like Ford Trucks and I want a Lightning.
- I would like to buy an F150 but I'll wait because my current vehicle will last until I get a Lightning.
- I'm officially on the list so I will wait.

That person is a percentage of people on a 200,000 long waiting list. If Ford makes 25k lightning this year and (I'll be generous) 75,000 next year there's a huge number of people on that list that will not buy an F150 during that year. And remember, every Lightning Ford sells is less of a profit than an ICE F150 (possibly a loss due to pricing and supply costs). The Lightning may accelerate their losses.

Ford's electrification plan relies on profits from ICE F150 sales, their only real profit maker. Ford sales over all have been dropping by (I recall) 7% per year for the past 7 years. Unless they based their profit projections on declining sales, their situation is headed downhill on roller-skates.

Their yearly EV deliveries won't match one quarter of Tesla production. If the CT comes online by Q2 2022... yikes. That will prevent stealing sales from Tesla via CT attrition.

GM is in the same boat.

Also, the people buying the Lightning and the Silverado are likely their whales… the buyers who always want the best and pay top dollar for it.

 

[Throwcomputer]

All good points. So many reasons the Ford CEO was blowing smoke out his ass

 

[Crissa]

Exactly. Braggadocio and saber rattling for wall Street. Ironic cause he literally made fun of Tesla for doing the same thing earlier in the presentation!

Hey, if they pull it off, it should be hailed as a coup.

But so far, only VW and Nissan have come anywhere close to producing so many and their ramps were very slow.

Also, the people buying the Lightning and the Silverado are likely their whales… the buyers who always want the best and pay top dollar for it.

If the my Silverado comes out before my Cybertruck, I'm buying the Silverado.

-Crissa

 

[SpaceYooper]

If the my Silverado comes out before my Cybertruck, I'm buying the Silverado.

-Crissa

If the 500 mile EV RAM comes out before the CT, I'll strongly consider it.

 

[Throwcomputer]

If the my Silverado comes out before my Cybertruck, I'm buying the Silverado.

-Crissa

I've actually been thinking the same, but I have lots more time than most as I'm not really in a rush to replace my truck, except for the fact that it gets 8mpg and gas is only going up. But i've been thinking if in 3-4 years when my number gets called, if the Silverado has improved range and ends up being cheaper than the CT then I may consider it. Although the CT is the truck of my 80s Sci Fi movie dreams. So it would have to be a pretty good savings difference for me to jump truck. The silverado is a nice looking EV truck for a standard truck look. But I love the freakishly absurd CT look.

 

[Ogre]

If you can’t dazzle them with your brilliance, baffle them with your bullshit.

 

[Dusty]

The EV truck market is definitely a smoke 'em if you got 'em situation. Whichever one you can get between now and whenever, just buy it. The upside of basically any EV truck wipes out the downside at this time.

I'd say the only real risk is if the vehicle has some massive, unforeseen, first generation vehicle killing "oops!". But, that goes for the CT as well.

 

[Ogre]

The EV truck market is definitely a smoke 'em if you got 'em situation. Whichever one you can get between now and whenever, just buy it. The upside of basically any EV truck wipes out the downside at this time.

I'd say the only real risk is if the vehicle has some massive, unforeseen, first generation vehicle killing "oops!". But, that goes for the CT as well.

For certain. Seems likely if you buy one and the Cybertruck comes out later you will be able to resell the first one, possible for a profit, and get the next.

Glad I live in a state with no sales tax now!

 

[Clustertruck]

Btw it's hilarious and delusional he thinks they will be the biggest ev manufacturer when they plan on producing 2 million EVs a year in 4 years. Tesla produces over a million a year now.. before giga Texas and Berlin started deliveries or ramped to full production. Tesla will be producing at least 3 million (modest estimate) EVs a year within 2 years. Basic math failure on Ford CEO's part.

Four years is just marketing hyperbole. Who knows?
Tesla is on the rev-limiter at 900K and while there's little doubt Texas will ramp up, Ford is capable of building a million vehicles as a matter of regular business. What Tesla gets built in China and Germany goes to China and Europe. Tesla Texas is 10 million square feet of expectations. So Tesla, Ford and GM all start from about the same unknown production capacity for the US market.
Musk has said '22 is "production" and '23 is "new models" … so hopefully Tesla cranks out well over 1 million in '22, but '23 is also the (latest) promise for Roadster and Cybertrucks … that's two lines, nothing in common with the Y, so all new. It took two years (generously) to get the first Y out the door of Giga-yeehaw and the Y is the vehicle they know best. It's possible for Tesla to build a line in one year in China … but in Texas?