Tesla Masterplan Part 3 according to Steven Markryian

[Ogre]

The air taxis can't go a hundred miles, so San Jose to San Francisco is doable, but San Francisco to Sacramento is not. Lots of rich people want to skip out of town, tho.

But even worse, they can't take straight routes because they have to avoid other air traffic and keep their noise wash off residential areas.

-Crissa

If it can’t go a hundred miles, I can’t see it being interested even for a sort of short hop thing for the wealthy. My thought on this would be the air taxi corridors would be fixed routes like tunnels through the sky and if they are fully automated would avoid normal chances of collisions.

The more I think about this, the more I think Musk is planning on literal tunnels to solve much of the same problems.

Tesla has plenty on their hands for the next 5 years with FSD and Optimus. Part 3 may be 100% about AI.

 

[Crissa]

If it can’t go a hundred miles, I can’t see it being interested even for a sort of short hop thing for the wealthy. My thought on this would be the air taxi corridors would be fixed routes like tunnels through the sky and if they are fully automated would avoid normal chances of collisions.

The more I think about this, the more I think Musk is planning on literal tunnels to solve much of the same problems.

Tesla has plenty on their hands for the next 5 years with FSD and Optimus. Part 3 may be 100% about AI.

Most helicopter trips are less than a hundred miles,

?‍

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

Most helicopter trips are less than a hundred miles,

?‍

-Crissa

If you are just replacing the helicopter industry, that’s not really a huge change to the industry or for that matter profitable enough to merit Tesla’s attention.

 

[Crissa]

If you are just replacing the helicopter industry, that’s not really a huge change to the industry or for that matter profitable enough to merit Tesla’s attention.

True. But the vehicle cost per ride should come way down.

-Crissa

 

[SparkChaser]

One other thought and this is not on their current horizon or anyone’s models.

* Electrification of air transportation.

I can see an air taxi of some sort coming from Tesla in the next 5-10 years which is the typical timeframe for these things.

Air transport is highly compatible with robotaxi type applications. You’d have nodes in each city where air taxis land and take off. A Robotaxi meets you at your destination and takes you to your final destination. These would be highly automated air taxis, little or perhaps no human piloting at all.

This would be a massive difference from current air travel. You would order a flight through an app. The air taxi would be parked and waiting for you and you would walk right up to it and load your gear in the cargo area.

Since the passengers cannot control the plane, there is no risk of hijacking or redirecting the air taxi. Thus no security. No waiting. No ticketing booth, no boarding order, no long term parking lots… just a drop off zone 20 feet from the taxi.

Sorry got rambly.

Anyhow… air taxis. I suspect that is on Tesla’s radar. It might wait until MP4 though.

THis is being done. United is investing millions in small self flying vehicles to pick up passengers from home and take them to larger airports.
United Airlines orders electric vertical aircraft, invests in urban air mobility SPAC (cnbc.com)

Home — Archer

As well as looking at electric and hydrogen use in larger aircraft.

First Practical Zero Emission Aviation Powertrain | USA & UK | ZeroAvia

 

[Ogre]

THis is being done. United is investing millions in small self flying vehicles to pick up passengers from home and take them to larger airports.
United Airlines orders electric vertical aircraft, invests in urban air mobility SPAC (cnbc.com)

If it’s not going to eliminate the jet fuel slurping aircraft, that’s not really part of Tesla’s mission at all.

The goal is to electrify air travel, to do that, you need to eliminate some of those big jets.

 

[SparkChaser]

If it’s not going to eliminate the jet fuel slurping aircraft, that’s not really part of Tesla’s mission at all.

The goal is to electrify air travel, to do that, you need to eliminate some of those big jets.

Unless you want to go back to the multiple stops method of crossing large distance it is unlikely that large transport aircraft will go a way. Range and weight issues are still a long way form making electric long haul aircraft.

 

[Ogre]

Unless you want to go back to the multiple stops method of crossing large distance it is unlikely that large transport aircraft will go a way. Range and weight issues are still a long way form making electric long haul aircraft.

There is a huge amount of air travel in the 100-500 mile range. Super common routes like SF to LA which millions of people use.

You don’t have to solve every part of the problem at once and the solution for 200 mile flights may not be the same as for 2000 mile flights. Much like electric cars came before electric trucks, you can split up the way you attack the problem.

Cargo also becomes a different problem than passengers.

 

[Tinker71]

There is a huge amount of air travel in the 100-500 mile range. Super common routes like SF to LA which millions of people use.

You don’t have to solve every part of the problem at once and the solution for 200 mile flights may not be the same as for 2000 mile flights. Much like electric cars came before electric trucks, you can split up the way you attack the problem.

Cargo also becomes a different problem than passengers.

I would like to add that contrails or water vapor at 30,000 feet actually reduce global warming by reflecting some energy back to space. If air travel as a whole represents 3% of global GHG emissions, the long range routes would be the last to need replacement.

Work on the low hanging fruit being the less than 500 mile routes.

 

[Ogre]

So… any aircraft are probably out. Likely adding some of the battery day goals to the master plan officially. As mentioned previously, Optimimus will be part of it.

Adding SpaceX and the Boring Company to the Master Plan adds a twist. More of a ”Musk’s Master Plan” than a Tesla plan. Good chance Mars will be on there now.

 

[Richard V.]

So… any aircraft are probably out. Likely adding some of the battery day goals to the master plan officially. As mentioned previously, Optimimus will be part of it.

Adding SpaceX and the Boring Company to the Master Plan adds a twist. More of a ”Musk’s Master Plan” than a Tesla plan. Good chance Mars will be on there now.

Perhaps Tesla, the public company, will be expended (e.g., a holding company) to include other parts owned by Elon (e.g., Space X and the Boring Company) to be able to raise all the needed capitals? Would that be a better way to integrate the stainless steel used by Space X, the CC and etc. FSD and Optimus will be a big part of it as Steven talks about, labor and AI AGI evolution of super good heroes supporting humanity and Space X going to Mars.

More ideas on the Master Plan Part 3 here:

(6) Elon's Tesla MASTER PLAN Part 3 PREDICTIONS!! Will I be right or wrong? We'll find out - YouTube

By Dr. Know-it-all Knows it all

More from Elon on the 21st March 2022:

See here for more on Elon's Tweet above by Dave Lee: What Elon Musk just said (Ep. 564) - YouTube

 

[Crissa]

I would like to add that contrails or water vapor at 30,000 feet actually reduce global warming by reflecting some energy back to space. If air travel as a whole represents 3% of global GHG emissions, the long range routes would be the last to need replacement.

Work on the low hanging fruit being the less than 500 mile routes.

High altitude clouds reflect more IR back to earth than they reflect from the sun, hence, they have an overall warming effect vs low-lying clouds.

https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-airplane-contrails-are-helping-make-the-planet-warmer

It's an angle thing; because the sun is so much further away, and reflectivity is a percentage, the relative amount of sunlight reflected by low vs high clouds is very similar - while the amount reflected back into the atmosphere is vastly different.

(There's some argument vs daytime clouds and nighttime ones, but without daylight, contrails tend not to fade, and the overall increase during the day isn't entirely removed at nightfall. So they don't have an entirely diurnal effect.)

-Crissa

 

[Tinker71]

High altitude clouds reflect more IR back to earth than they reflect from the sun, hence, they have an overall warming effect vs low-lying clouds.

https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-airplane-contrails-are-helping-make-the-planet-warmer

It's an angle thing; because the sun is so much further away, and reflectivity is a percentage, the relative amount of sunlight reflected by low vs high clouds is very similar - while the amount reflected back into the atmosphere is vastly different.

(There's some argument vs daytime clouds and nighttime ones, but without daylight, contrails tend not to fade, and the overall increase during the day isn't entirely removed at nightfall. So they don't have an entirely diurnal effect.)

-Crissa

Dang it Crissa, you made me dig deeper into something I read 20 years ago post 9/11. My daughter was born on 9/16. I might have been distracted . I over simplified the argument.

affect on contrails

Still at only 3% of GHG emission I don't think aviation will be a Tesla priority.

I get the angle argument. Any idea why geoengineering using SO2 aerosols would help reduce temperatures?

 

[Crissa]

I get the angle argument. Any idea why geoengineering using SO2 aerosols would help reduce temperatures?

There's something about it increasing the reflectivity of the atmosphere as a whole. Sodium is also a plasma layer around the Earth, which is how it degrades...

But that's all I really know. Different chemicals reflect and scatter at different wavelengths, this is why atmospheres are different colors.

-Crissa

PS: I love that we all bring different experiences in and challenge each other! My spouse was laid off the week later as the second tech crash was triggered starting with the airline and communications industry having a huge contraction. She was a cellular testing equipment engineer - they made the stuff to test cellular sites and the telecoms had overinvested in land links and as digital compression came into the market it actually shrank the amount of bandwidth being consumed and left huge amounts of bandwidth unused.

She got better, tho, she caught a job at Stanford working for a NASA contractor and her code got to fly in space... and then she got to update that spacecraft while in flight. ^-^

 

[SparkChaser]

There is a huge amount of air travel in the 100-500 mile range. Super common routes like SF to LA which millions of people use.

You don’t have to solve every part of the problem at once and the solution for 200 mile flights may not be the same as for 2000 mile flights. Much like electric cars came before electric trucks, you can split up the way you attack the problem.

Cargo also becomes a different problem than passengers.

I can see battery powered AC for under 100 miles but it will take a huge step up to get beyond that. The weight vs range/ power is the problem. Aviation relies on a reserve of about 1/2 of the useful range. This makes the range/ power so difficult. Rerouting and alternate field is necessary due to a variety of reasons.