Special Austin Model Y Option?

[tidmutt]

I’m pretty sure if they change the VIN you will have the opportunity to update your order and accept current pricing without losing the $250 order fee.

Another way they could do this is simply have all cars coming out of Texas be in the new colors. (Switching colors would also cause a new order and pricing reset)

yes, I'm going to assume they might go this way. Certainly the timing of the FSD price increase is suspicious and supports that something is going to happen with the Y...

Financials look awesome (revenue likely lower than expectations a little) for Q4, reading through the report and watching Gali's live stream. A few mentions of Texas being in equipment testing, confirmed Berlin will use 2170s for now, but no direct confirmation of 4680's for Texas.

Page 22 of report has picture of seat production, it does look like they are sitting on top of a structural battery pack, but I could be wrong.

 

[Ogre]

Yes, but if 90% of customers don't care then Osborne shouldn't be a factor. I'm actually, in part, having a go at all the posters who ask why I care about the Austin build vs Fremont. According to them, most don't care... hmmm...

Also, by charging a nominal amount more, perhaps $1000 not sure what that number looks like and an extended delivery date perhaps, you can drive people to the older, shitty Osborne model, while keeping those drooling over the new model happy.

I think having a new model of some sort makes the most sense. They managed to slip the LFP cells into their Model 3 production fairly easily, but that was a more-or-less sideways change so whether you got the LFP cells or the 2170s you were happy. If they did something along those lines with this it could work.

It would be really interesting to see them push out a 500 mile range Model Y.

 

[tidmutt]

I think having a new model of some sort makes the most sense. They managed to slip the LFP cells into their Model 3 production fairly easily, but that was a more-or-less sideways change so whether you got the LFP cells or the 2170s you were happy. If they did something along those lines with this it could work.

It would be really interesting to see them push out a 500 mile range Model Y.

yeah, I can see them not doing that to conserve cells, at least for now. I would love that though. When you do a long road trip of thousands of miles you realize how optimistic the range estimates are. If we sat at 55 mph, sure they'd be reasonably close, but 80-90 mph, forget it. Would love to see a 500 mile range Tesla that can get 300 miles reliably at highway speeds.

 

[Ogre]

The shareholder letter mentions explicitly that Berlin will start production with 2170 cells.

It says nothing specific about what cells Texas will start production with.

Strong suggestion they will be starting Mode Y production with 4680 cells in Auston. This isn’t a surprise, just a bit of a confirmation. Tesla has been a bit wink wink nudge nudge about this all along.

I’m not sure where this is, but pretty clearly attaching seats to the battery pack before it gets inserted into the body. Looks almost like a beta production line.

 

[tidmutt]

The shareholder letter mentions explicitly that Berlin will start production with 2170 cells.

It says nothing specific about what cells Texas will start production with.

Strong suggestion they will be starting Mode Y production with 4680 cells in Auston. This isn’t a surprise, just a bit of a confirmation. Tesla has been a bit wink wink nudge nudge about this all along.

I’m not sure where this is, but pretty clearly attaching seats to the battery pack before it gets inserted into the body. Looks almost like a beta production line.

Yep, didn't I say all of that already? ?

 

[Ogre]

Yep, didn't I say all of that already? ?

I’m slow.

Also trying to read too many threads at once.

(And work… I’m supposed to be working!)

 

[happy intruder]

I think having a new model of some sort makes the most sense. They managed to slip the LFP cells into their Model 3 production fairly easily, but that was a more-or-less sideways change so whether you got the LFP cells or the 2170s you were happy. If they did something along those lines with this it could work.

It would be really interesting to see them push out a 500 mile range Model Y.

if that happens, I will get the Y.....500 mile and camping can be done together.....thats a great trick if it can happen

 

[tidmutt]

I’m slow.

Also trying to read too many threads at once.

(And work… I’m supposed to be working!)

No worries, ditto on all three for me as well. Have to keep working, but listening to youtube stream, waiting for earnings and reading threads here. I really shouldn't multitask.

 

[Crissa]

Yes, but if 90% of customers don't care then Osborne shouldn't be a factor. I'm actually, in part, having a go at all the posters who ask why I care about the Austin build vs Fremont. According to them, most don't care... hmmm...

Also, by charging a nominal amount more, perhaps $1000 not sure what that number looks like and an extended delivery date perhaps, you can drive people to the older, shitty Osborne model, while keeping those drooling over the new model happy.

Yes, which is why they have to cancel those orders - to put them at the newer, higher price, instead of the old one they've been lingering at.

-Crissa

 

[swengl]

I have to admit: I would definitely want to be able to specify getting a MY from Austin with the 4680s, even if that were the only differentiator between a MY from CA and one from Austin. The ability to charge at the fastest speed possible (at this point/in the near future), the advantages of the structural pack, and the potential for the cells to last longer (or possibly degrade slower) would be my justifications. I'm holding off putting in an order until I know that Austin is open for business. I'm fairly patient, I've been waiting for the CT this long without complaining (excessively). This is the first time that being on the East Coast is actually an advantage when buying a Tesla .

 

[tidmutt]

I have to admit: I would definitely want to be able to specify getting a MY from Austin with the 4680s, even if that were the only differentiator between a MY from CA and one from Austin. The ability to charge at the fastest speed possible (at this point/in the near future), the advantages of the structural pack, and the potential for the cells to last longer (or possibly degrade slower) would be my justifications. I'm holding off putting in an order until I know that Austin is open for business. I'm fairly patient, I've been waiting for the CT this long without complaining (excessively). This is the first time that being on the East Coast is actually an advantage when buying a Tesla .

Yeah, the Austin Y will be theoretically quicker given it's lighter weight. If they sell it as a non-differentiated model then they'll likely nerf it to keep 0-60 similar to Fremont Ys. Booooo!!! Come on Tesla, just sell it as a Performance+ model or something, and charge a bit more. On the flip side, if it is just nerfed, it's possible in the future they'll unlock the additional performance. I saw some calculations suggesting the LR will be almost 0.5 seconds quicker to 60.

 

[Ogre]

Yeah, the Austin Y will be theoretically quicker given it's lighter weight. If they sell it as a non-differentiated model then they'll likely nerf it to keep 0-60 similar to Fremont Ys. Booooo!!! Come on Tesla, just sell it as a Performance+ model or something, and charge a bit more. On the flip side, if it is just nerfed, it's possible in the future they'll unlock the additional performance. I saw some calculations suggesting the LR will be almost 0.5 seconds quicker to 60.

Unless they put smaller motors in to push the lower weight cars. Or just limit them in software and sell an unlock later on.

Lots of assumptions flying around.

I’d like the new hotness too. Just maybe more cynical and waiting until there is an obvious update.

FSD Hardware 4.0 isn’t too far down the road here.

 

[tidmutt]

Unless they put smaller motors in to push the lower weight cars. Or just limit them in software and sell an unlock later on.

Lots of assumptions flying around.

I’d like the new hotness too. Just maybe more cynical and waiting until there is an obvious update.

FSD Hardware 4.0 isn’t too far down the road here.

Indeed, the speculation helps pass the time while waiting for concrete information.

Tesla's usual MO would suggest same motors, software nerf.

yeah, HW 4.0 would be nice, upgrade cameras etc. but I'm fine to wait for the CT for that.

I'm secretly hoping for adjustable suspension in the Austin Y as well, but know that's unlikely. At the price point it should have that feature.

 

[Ogre]

Indeed, the speculation helps pass the time while waiting for concrete information.

Tesla's usual MO would suggest same motors, software nerf.

yeah, HW 4.0 would be nice, upgrade cameras etc. but I'm fine to wait for the CT for that.

I'm secretly hoping for adjustable suspension in the Austin Y as well, but know that's unlikely. At the price point it should have that feature.

What would kill me and be instant purchase is if they made a version with 2” higher ride and more off road friendly tires. With the new lighter battery pack it would be instant purchase.

I think a ruggedized Model Y would be a smash hit. Just destroy the RAV 4 and similar beasties.

TAKE MY MONEY NOW!!

 

[tidmutt]

What would kill me and be instant purchase is if they made a version with 2” higher ride and more off road friendly tires. With the new lighter battery pack it would be instant purchase.

I think a ruggedized Model Y would be a smash hit. Just destroy the RAV 4 and similar beasties.

TAKE MY MONEY NOW!!

Yeah, direct hit at the Subaru crowd. It's already quite water resistant. Maybe improve that even more if necessary, add some additional shielding if necessary as well.

They don't really need to do they... people buy every single damn one anyway.

Bastards.