Rivian Production is Paltry

[Dusty]

RIvian just put out that due to 'supply constraints' they will only be able to produce 25k vehicles total, across all of their vehicle lines. Average production right now is about 350 vehicles per month since the start of 2022, and they aim to hit 200k per year in 2 years.

https://insideevs.com/news/572855/rivian-q4-2021-financial-results/

They have over 80k vehicle orders for the R1S/T and their production estimate includes their commercial delivery truck. I get that the supply chain is hurting everyone, but to say the supply chain is cutting your already puny production estimate by 50%... really?

I can see a company producing 1M vehicles per year not being able to obtain supplies. But someone in the same industry making a fraction of a percent of that production total shouldn't be effected more heavily. That means that there's a 3-4 year wait for a truck with less than 100k pre-orders. I was nearly at the back of that line anyway since I didn't order until a few months ago. WIth their new prices, orders are going to hit the bottom of the toilet.

Whatever their problem is, Rivian's going to be purchased by [enter Chinese manufacturer's name here] or be gone in 3 years (just my opinion which isn't worth much). They really failed my recent "I test". Based on what "I see", I canceled my reservation because it seems pointless after the past 2 weeks of stuff that went on. I'm getting my $1000 back and will just be even more of a Rivian spectator.

Damn... I kinda thought Rivian was OK.

 

[Ogre]

Plus, 10,000 of those vehicles need to be commercial vans for Amazon.

They need to hit 550/ week or so to hit that number and they are still pretty far behind that target.


More concerning is their burn rate which suggests they won’t have enough cash to last more than 2-3 years. Their overhead structure (expenses other than manufacturing costs) are nearly as high as Tesla’s.

 

[Red61224]

And the share price tanks.......................from $172 down to $38 this morning.

 

[charliemagpie]

Divide their current operating expenses 1.1 Billion / 25,000 units, and come up about break even.


You reckon they came up with 25,000 as a valid production number, or is that a coincidence ?

On the back of a napkin, If they only produce 1000 per month which looks like about their max output (if they are lucky) , they are selling at half the price it costs them to build.

 

[Dusty]

Yes. It gets worse if you actually do a cursory surface-level look at the numbers. They aren't in a good place. And, they still have to start their promised "adventure network" charging stations, and expand their service centers.

Things aren't lookin' too hot right now.
But, I don't run a billion dollar company, what do I know.

 

[Ogre]

Yes. It gets worse if you actually do a cursory surface-level look at the numbers. They aren't in a good place. And, they still have to start their promised "adventure network" charging stations, and expand their service centers.

Things aren't lookin' too hot right now.
But, I don't run a billion dollar company, what do I know.

Make that a
$80 billion
$120 billion
$80 billion
$60 billion
$30 billion dollar business.

 

[John K]

Risky investment potential when the stock bottoms out and you can wait a while. There is a path to success. I am unsure if the route will be taken.

 

[Ogre]

Risky investment potential when the stock bottoms out and you can wait a while. There is a path to success. I am unsure if the route will be taken.

The big question is whether you have confidence that Rivian‘s current leadership can get you there.

The same leadership that sold 70,000 vehicles it can’t produce, has created an unsustainable expense structure, and just committed to producing 10s of thousands of vehicles at a loss.

 

[John K]

The big question is whether you have confidence that Rivian‘s current leadership can get you there.

The same leadership that sold 70,000 vehicles it can’t produce, has created an unsustainable expense structure, and just committed to producing 10s of thousands of vehicles at a loss.

I put my money where my mouth is. I have zero Rivian shares. The reason I added ”risky” to my description.

I do have some TSLA shares. Seeing current trend is underwhelming.

 

[Ogre]

I put my money where my mouth is. I have zero Rivian shares. The reason I added ”risky” to my description.

I do have some TSLA shares. Seeing current trend is underwhelming.

That buy high strategy just not working out yet.

In 5 years whatever you paid for it won’t matter.

 

[John K]

I count missed opportunities as losses. Too bad IRS does not agree with me.

 

[Clustertruck]

And the share price tanks.......................from $172 down to $38 l this morning.

$172 was the all-time high after the IPO FOMO
Stock was up from $36 overnight to $38 and was $40 pre-earnings. In other words: flat.
Anyone asking "how low?" … seems like $36 is "how low" and we'll see how they go by end of '23 when competitors ramp up.

 

[Crissa]

But... compare their output to, say, GM or Ford last year.

It's not just Rivian who's hurting.

Like Elon said, things are nearly impossible, yet they must.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

But... compare their output to, say, GM or Ford last year.

It's not just Rivian who's hurting.

I suspect you are right, but Ford hasn’t started on trucks yet so they deserve a little time.

I suspect we won’t see more than 15k Lightnings and 15k R1Ts this year.

Seems like we’re still on track for Tesla to beat Ford and Rivian by the time the first quarter of production is done. Teslas date slid, Rivian and likely Ford’s production slipped.