Nickel Prices (The bubble has popped)

[Tinker71]

if the inflation data which is trickling out now is legit, it would be irresponsible of the fed to do a big rate hike right now.

It takes months for rate hikes to take effect so they could easily trigger a recession even after inflation is settled.

Exactly. The correction has already started based prior fed moves and more importantly post pandemic production rates. So don't raise interest rates too much. Wait just a little longer to see what happens.

Assuming we don't get a variant that is both highly transmittable and with a high mortality rate Covid will normalize to flu like disruptions. The supply chain will smooth out and we will have a surplus of many items currently restrained. IMHO this has more of an affect than monetary policy.

The trillions of dollars of world stimulus was necessary to keep the working class from starving/loosing everything. Much of that money did exactly that. Some percentage of the excess allowed for excess spending to purchase stuff at prices inflated by supply shortages.

So much of our inflation is the result of the pandemic related glitches. Factory output and efficiency have been improving for many years. This will snap back with a vengeance and the surplus stimulus will be quickly absorbed.

Currently mixed signals that the chip shortage is over, but eventually it will end. Nickle and copper are both down. Food is down. Hyperinflation is over, the data just isn't reflecting it yet.

Wages may increase short term but spending power will probably end up close to 2019 levels.
Labor represents a smaller portion of goods than ever.

 

[firsttruck]

......
Nickel mines take 10 yrs to bring to market. That’s new or expansion of existing mines.

Price of nickel and slowness in expansion for nickel supply will not stop production of EVs.

LFP ( LiFePO4 ) use no cobalt & no nickel.

Today most EVs use LFP ( Teslas & models from Chinese brands).
Elon predicts LFP will grow to even larger share of EVs and energy storage.
China's CATL which is world's lithium battery largest maker, the largest maker of LFP batteries, has cell to pack technology ( CTP ), will in the near future be making batteries in U.S. and Europe.

With LFP batteries, lithium is the only element in tight supply and the supply of it can be significantly expanded in less than 10 years by using geothermal brine and other methods.


--------------

CATL In Advanced Talks To Build Its First US Battery Plants: Report CATL is reportedly considering plants that would serve BMW and Ford, with potential sites including South Carolina and Kentucky.
May 09, 2022
By: Dan Mihalascu
https://insideevs.com/news/584634/catl-advanced-talks-build-its-first-us-battery-plants-report/

--------------

LG Energy Solution To Produce LFP Lithium-Ion Cells In Michigan Initially, for battery energy storage systems, and potentially for EVs.
May 21, 2022
By: Mark Kane
https://insideevs.com/news/587166/lges-lfp-battery-cells-michigan/

--------------


Gotion High-Tech (China) Signs 200 GWh LFP Battery Deal With Major Publicly Traded US Automaker
By Steve Hanley
Published December 22, 2021
https://cleantechnica.com/2021/12/2...deal-with-major-publicly-traded-us-automaker/

--------------

The ONE for battery innovation 2022-02-23 Lindsay Brooke Michigan-based battery upstart Our Next Energy is tackling energy density, cost and safety with a new approach to cell chemistries.
2022-02-23
By Lindsay Brooke
https://www.sae.org/news/2022/02/our-next-energy-battery-development

.....
Michigan-based battery upstart Our Next Energy (ONE), explained his company’s unique approach to the inseparable demands of EV range, cost and safety. ONE has developed two complementary battery architectures. The first, called Aries, is a structural cell-to-pack single chemistry battery currently in prototype testing at customers. It uses a lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) cell, in prismatic form factor, that eschews nickel and cobalt. LFP has an outstanding safety reputation but underperforms nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA) cells in terms of energy density.

.....
ONE is steering clear of nickel-cobalt for its production batteries because the team believes the chemistry has the potential to thermally runaway if an internal short develops. “I’d say we should be worried about the foundation of NCM/NCA,” Ijaz asserted. “The industry arrived at nickel-cobalt because it was the only family of cell chemistry to deliver the range numbers.” He noted that while he’s not uncomfortable in his daily driver, a Tesla Model Y which uses NCA cells, if the industry avoids nickel-cobalt altogether as EV adoption rates increase “we’ll avoid the risk altogether.”

.....
The structural cell-to-pack concept embraced by ONE and other battery suppliers including BYD does away with modules, integrating the cells themselves into the pack architecture for increased package and mass efficiency. Ijaz explained his team’s engineering rationale, noting that cell-to-pack requires three conditions for it to be a rational solution. “First, the chemistry has to be right,” he said, calling LFP ‘the birth center’ of cell-to-pack. “A chemistry that tends to self-oxidize is not feasible; if a failure occurs and the chemistry self oxidizes, it will rip through the pack because the cells are so intimate,” he said. “You can’t stop the spread of a thermal runaway.”

--------------

Massive LFP battery Gigafactory ramping now in the US
May 24, 2022
The Electric Viking


--------------

......
Industry insiders are doubtful BEVs move the needle off petroleum until 2040’s beyond.

6 years ago those industry insiders said nobody wanted EVs and that Tesla would go bankrupt.

Today any EV maker that ships a decent EV at a decent price has more demand than they can fulfill.

If they put out poor value products they fail (like Mazda MX30, Audi eTron).

In past two years Tesla doubled production of Model 3/Y, significantly raised prices and still demand grew. Hyundia, Kia, Ford F-150 Lightning EV can not keep up with demand.

With CATL in U.S. and Europe it also makes it much easier for some of the Chinese EV brands (BYD, Xpeng, Nio, Geeley) to setup factories in U.S. and Europe. BYD already has truck and bus factory in U.S.

The needle has already moved and by 2030 even in the U.S. the needle on ICE sales will be way on the empty side.

Even Bloomberg who has significant investments in fossil fuel industry is now predicting significant EV adoption in U.S. by end 2025.

---------------------------------------

US Crosses the Electric-Car Tipping Point for Mass Adoption Once 5% of new-car sales go fully electric, everything changes — according to a Bloomberg analysis of the 19 countries that have made the EV pivot.
By Tom Randall
July 9, 2022
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-09/us-electric-car-sales-reach-key-milestone

......
For the past six months, the US joined Europe and China — collectively the three largest car markets — in moving beyond the 5% tipping point. If the US follows the trend established by 18 countries that came before it, a quarter of new car sales could be electric by the end of 2025. That would be a year or two ahead of most major forecasts.

---------------------------------------

 

[Crissa]

No, most EVs don't use LFP.

Not even most EVs in China.

Because most are bikes, scooters, personal EVs, or cheap neighborhood EVs. And Hybrids, which we don't count, but China does.

Lead-acid os still popular there, and most bikes and compact EVs use high density batteries. And hubrids often use things like NiMH.

-Crissa

 

[firsttruck]

No, most EVs don't use LFP.

Not even most EVs in China.

Because most are bikes, scooters, personal EVs, or cheap neighborhood EVs. And Hybrids, which we don't count, but China does.

Lead-acid os still popular there, and most bikes and compact EVs use high density batteries. And hubrids often use things like NiMH.

-Crissa

OK, I need to be more specific next time in my context.

I only mentioned Tesla, BYD, Xpeng, Nio, Geely, Audi, Mazda, Ford, U.S./European auto makers, etc.

I was talking about real highway capable full BEV cars, SUVs, trucks not e-bikes, e-scooters, hybrids or even neighborhood vehicles ( Chinese micro cars).



The Bloomberg article about tipping point was not taking about e-bikes, scooters, hybrids, etc.

 

[Crissa]

Most of those don't use LFP in their highway vehicles, and one of them doesn't even make one. (Mazda's MX-30 BEV os horribly short ranged for how fat it is.)

-Crissa

 

[firsttruck]

A year ago ( first half 2021) in China, LFP batteries installed in NEVs increased from 38% in January to 51% in July. This year (2022) June/July, LFP share should be even higher. In China expectations are LFP in NEVs reach 60-65% for 2022 full-year forecast.

In China NEVs (New Energy Vehicles) battery electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) in sizes ranging from compact cars (not low speed city micro cars) to regular highway capable cars/suv/trucks and larger trucks/buses.

-----------------------------

New energy vehicles in China
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_energy_vehicles_in_China
.....
low-speed electric cars are used in small cities, but they are expanding to larger cities.[62][80] These small vehicles are not accounted by the government as new energy vehicles (NEVs) due to safety and environmental concerns, and are excluded from government NEV purchase subsidies.[3][82] LSEVs generally have a maximum speed of between 40 to 70 km/h (25 to 43 mph), have short ranges and, in some cases, use lead-acid batteries and basic motor technology.

-----------------------------

Exclusive: LFP Sharply Expanded Production Capacity in H2, and to Usher in Overcapacity in 2022
Aug 26, 2021
https://news.metal.com/newscontent/...y-in-H2-and-to-Usher-in-Overcapacity-in-2022/

.....
The proportion of LFP batteries installed in NEVs has increased from 38% in January to 51% in July, exceeding that of ternary batteries in a single month.

-----------------------------

Cobalt Prices Likely to Fall Slightly Recently, and Output Proportion of LFP May Exceed NMC Materials
Jul 5, 2022
https://news.metal.com/newscontent/...t-Proportion-of-LFP-May-Exceed-NMC-Materials/

.....
And from the production of NMC and LFP materials, since the middle of 2020, LFP took over NMC materials with greatest production for the first time. Although the market has been disturbed by the outbreak of pandemic from January to May, and the production of NMC and LFP materials declined to varying degrees, LFP production has grown more rapidly than NMC materials after the pandemic subsided.

In terms of future growth potential, SMM believes that LFP carries greater potential than NMC materials. And based on a full-year forecast, it is estimated that the proportion of LFP production will gradually climb this year to a level of 60-65% in 2022


-----------------------------

 

[Crissa]

LFP production has grown wildly in the last few years. It has alot of promise, especially now that they can sell outside China. I just bought an LFP for my car, and one for my house.

Most of it was being used for busses, though, in the transportation arena because other solutions were cheaper or higher watthours per volume. Which is import to cars, bikes, etc.

But they can't just shift everything to one format, that would reduce total output as well.

-Crissa

 

[firsttruck]

In early 2024, some models of Ford F-150 Lightning trucks will get lithium iron phosphate ( LFP ) battery packs

Interestingly, CATL will supply not only the prismatic cells but the whole battery packs for the Mach-E and F-150 Lightning, built using the company's cell-to-pack technology.

-----------------------------------

Ford Releases New Battery Capacity Plan
Jul 21, 2022
https://media.ford.com/content/ford...battery-capacity-raw-materials-scale-evs.html

.....
* Lithium iron phosphate ( LFP ) battery packs coming for Mustang Mach-Es sold in North America next year and F-150 Lightnings in early 2024, creating more capacity for high-demand products

.....
Ford announced that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) will provide full LFP battery packs for Mustang Mach-E models for North America starting next year as well as F-150 Lightnings in early 2024. Ford’s EV architecture flexibility allows efficient incorporation of CATL’s prismatic LFP cell-to-pack technology, delivering incremental capacity quickly to scale and meet customer demand.

.....
Ford also announced it plans to localize and use 40 GWh of LFP capacity in North America starting in 2026.

.....