Anti-EV idiocy

[firsttruck]

A neighbor was angry at me when I told her that EVs will largely replace ICE vehicles.
She then went on an emotional rant about the government forcing her to drive an EV.

While it could be argued that the govt forced us to land folks on the moon I don't recall the American gulags containing engineers and technicians to pull this off and we the people did not specifically vote to land people on the moon.

Then how did it happen? Simple political leadership? Aspirational feel good goal? Lucrative side hustle for the military industrial complex with plenty of pork for each state? exploration? It was likely all of the above and more.

So while some in gov't may aspire to usher in change it always was going to be a market based transition and you can choose what is offered.

Even if she was not concerned or believed that humans cause global climate change, does this lady think the pollution that comes out of every car, truck, bus, semi is good for her health (and if she has any, her children's health)?

Everybody in most cities and even towns can see auto/truck/bus air pollution and there are probably hundreds of studies going back over 70 years documenting how the pollution is killing us and damaging our health everyday.

 

[Cherokee180C]

Here's my counter to all FUD, numbers.

I replaced an F350 service truck with a Model Y and this is the difference, $17k in savings vs fuel costs. That doesn't even include oil and fluid changes, which probably puts it closer to $20k in savings.

It is amaxing the number of people who can not do basic math. Especially looking or creating a TCO model. When I tell people I bought a Tesla, they say must be nice to be rich, I respond that it must be nice to have so much extra money to waste on their gas car. Normally leads to an interesting conversation where I have to educate them on basic math. It is really funny when they discover their electric provider offers $0.04 / kWhr electricity for EV‘s and it is like $148/year to drive the car 10K miles at that rate.

 

[Cherokee180C]

I don't understand the comparison. The US government has said that they will force everyone to drive an EV. They have not yet said they will force everyone to go to the moon. We had EVs since the early 1900s and a few people went to the moon in the 60s (if you believe they actually did).

Speaking of moon, these moonbats were the same ones complaining about seat belts and ABS. If our government didn't have a long track record of over-reach and stupid or illegal rules, they might be less crazy about it. Might be.

Really? I thought they said it will be illegal to sell new ICE cars after 2035, and that was not the US government, that was state governments. Did I miss something? Not being able to sell new ICE cars, and forcing people to scrap used ICE vehicles are two entirely different things.

 

[firsttruck]

Really? I thought they said it will be illegal to sell new ICE cars after 2035, and that was not the US government, that was state governments. Did I miss something? Not being able to sell new ICE cars, and forcing people to scrap used ICE vehicles are two entirely different things.

Yup, and it is not all states. If someone is so desperate to kill themselves & their family with pollution in 2035 they still have the FREEDOM to move to Texas, Florida and a number of other states to buy new FREEDOM ICE cars/trucks.

Besides the pollution they have FREEDOM of enjoyment of continuing to send money to corrupt regimes in Saudi Arabia & Russia that fund terrorism around the world.

 

[Cherokee180C]

Wait till they see the economic impact, although not so sure used ICE car prices don’t plummet. Between new ICE cars being unavailable or simply much much more expensive due to all those fixed costs being spread out on half or less of the production volume. You could potentially lose 20K driving off the lot with a new ICE car on day one. Wait till you see what the price of gas does on 40% less volume. Quite possible lots of gas stations wont make it on the low margin business model they run.

 

[charliemagpie]

Downturn will not be a smooth gradient. It will accelerate, and shift into bankruptcy quickly.

Companies, as a rule as thumb could say (likely).. without advertising, our sales will drop 20%.


Imagina a world where you have dropped 30% in sales. You tighten belts, lengthen supplier payment terms.


Drop another 10%. You reduce the sale price of your vehicles to clear inventory and bring cash in.

In the mean time, your suppliers are ringing.

You stop advertising and R&D. You shurtdown a couple of factories.. your redundancy payments are squeezing your reserves.

You drop another 10%.

Now you die.

 

[firsttruck]

Wait till they see the economic impact, although not so sure used ICE car prices don’t plummet. Between new ICE cars being unavailable or simply much much more expensive due to all those fixed costs being spread out on half or less of the production volume. You could potentially lose 20K driving off the lot with a new ICE car on day one. Wait till you see what the price of gas does on 40% less volume. Quite possible lots of gas stations wont make it on the low margin business model they run.

There is more economic pain and significant inconvenience ahead for ICE owners.

Besides gas stations going out of business.

Remember all the problems foreign car buyers have on getting new parts for their cars.

Well, even newer domestic ICE cars & trucks will starting experiencing this problem in getting new parts. Getting used parts from a wrecked car will get easier and cheaper for awhile but new parts could be a problem. Especially new parts for engine, transmission, emission control (sensors like oxygen, exhaust gas temperature, air flow, soot (PM), NOx, etc) and exhaust systems. Most vehicles will not run smoothly with failed sensors, some will refuse to run at all and even today many states deny operation permission for vehicles that fail emissions tests.

The cause will be lose of business by legacy auto suppliers. Once these suppliers no longer have no volume sales to the legacy new car factories some of these suppliers will go out of business so no more new parts for servicing ICEs already out there.

TOC (total cost of ownership) for ICE will increase substantially.

 

[Crissa]

It is amaxing the number of people who can not do basic math. Especially looking or creating a TCO model. When I tell people I bought a Tesla, they say must be nice to be rich, I respond that it must be nice to have so much extra money to waste on their gas...

Yeah, but you need to have much better credit to get a loan for a Tesla with a lower TCO vs an ICE vehicle.

It's dumb, I know, and yeah, most people can't do a TCO, but the big problem is the stupid (and somewhat predatory) way loan officers handle the initial cost without doing any TCO analysis.

-Crissa

 

[Cherokee180C]

Downturn will not be a smooth gradient. It will accelerate, and shift into bankruptcy quickly.

Companies, as a rule as thumb could say (likely).. without advertising, our sales will drop 20%.


Imagina a world where you have dropped 30% in sales. You tighten belts, lengthen supplier payment terms.


Drop another 10%. You reduce the sale price of your vehicles to clear inventory and bring cash in.

In the mean time, your suppliers are ringing.

You stop advertising and R&D. You shurtdown a couple of factories.. your redundancy payments are squeezing your reserves.

You drop another 10%.

Now you die.

Many are already in this sprial. Nissan Sales are down 50% since 2015. You are exactly right, but I have no idea how they can lower prices with minimal profit margins now. Most likely they will continue to cut jobs and manufacturing capacity as they use product scarcity to hold pricing up. Basically ICE car manufacturers are going to be shadows of their former glory.

It is already upon us. Model Y was the highest selling car in Germany overall in September and they are volume constrained still. New car pricing also just rolled over for the first time in 5 months last week.

I literally just saw this video post on Nissan’s troubles.

 

[Cherokee180C]

There is more economic pain and significant inconvenience ahead for ICE owners.

Besides gas stations going out of business.

Remember all the problems foreign car buyers have on getting new parts for their cars.

Well, even newer domestic ICE cars & trucks will starting experiencing this problem in getting new parts. Getting used parts from a wrecked car will get easier and cheaper for awhile but new parts could be a problem. Especially new parts for engine, transmission, emission control (sensors like oxygen, exhaust gas temperature, air flow, soot (PM), NOx, etc) and exhaust systems. Most vehicles will not run smoothly with failed sensors, some will refuse to run at all and even today many states deny operation permission for vehicles that fail emissions tests.

The cause will be lose of business by legacy auto suppliers. Once these suppliers no longer have no volume sales to the legacy new car factories some of these suppliers will go out of business so no more new parts for servicing ICEs already out there.

TOC (total cost of ownership) for ICE will increase substantially.

Very good point. Already happened to Corvette owners when they switched engine manufacturers. The old one could not afford to stay in business anymore on used part sales only. Not only this, but there will basically be almost no new ICE car new designs from a platform standpoint. No one will be able to afford all that engineering and new tooling costs when the volume to pay back has been cut in half. You will see minor body changes or shared platform designs to a much higher extent later this decade. Crap with the current numbers as they are, this may have already started.

 

[Cherokee180C]

Yeah, but you need to have much better credit to get a loan for a Tesla with a lower TCO vs an ICE vehicle.

It's dumb, I know, and yeah, most people can't do a TCO, but the big problem is the stupid (and somewhat predatory) way loan officers handle the initial cost without doing any TCO analysis.

-Crissa

Not really clear on your point on this one. Tesla actually does not have a loan arm of the company. They just subcontract to other lenders. I didn’t even bother going through them and used my own credit union. Not sure this is not like buying anything else of substantial value. And yes, you do need good credit to not get ripped off, but that is why a good credit rating is earned. Most think there are no reprecussions for during stupid stuff and then just whine when no one want to give them lots of money or simply tells them they are a high risk and need to pay more for the lender to take that risk.

 

[SwampNut]

The lying scumbag who is the darling of the nutter alt right feeds his worshippers this garbage:

 

[Bill906]

Yeah, but you need to have much better credit to get a loan for a Tesla with a lower TCO vs an ICE vehicle.

It's dumb, I know, and yeah, most people can't do a TCO, but the big problem is the stupid (and somewhat predatory) way loan officers handle the initial cost without doing any TCO analysis.

-Crissa

Good point. I hadn't looked at it from that perspective. Thanks.

 

[ricinro]

Even if she was not concerned or believed that humans cause global climate change, does this lady think the pollution that comes out of every car, truck, bus, semi is good for her health (and if she has any, her children's health)?

Everybody in most cities and even towns can see auto/truck/bus air pollution and there are probably hundreds of studies going back over 70 years documenting how the pollution is killing us and damaging our health everyday.

I live in East Mesa AZ, it is not too difficult to guess her tribal affiliation and news sources so concerns about the environment or macro health concerns are just hoaxes to her.
Since this a Tesla related forum we can understand that change is mostly being driven by Tesla not any state gov't.

So rather than deep state machination it is capitalism that will take her ICE from her.

Car manufacturers always retire classes of vehicles. We don't see much station wagons or sedans as they were displaced by trucks, SUVs and CUVs. The migration to EVs is happening the same way.

State laws like CA and NY will be seen mostly just aspirational ten years from now but are subject to the political optics of 'evil big socialist gov't' today. Expect those threatened by EVs and renewable energy to exploit the public fear of change.

 

[SwampNut]

Good point. I hadn't looked at it from that perspective. Thanks.

And you shouldn't. Credit requirements are the same for EVs as for ICE. I had this conversation with our credit union when refinancing our Tesla, and just had it with a neighbor's kid who got a Bolt with what he describes as "I fucked up but I'm fixing it" credit. The EV savings are not factored into DTI so you may need a better DTI than if they did count it. My and his DTI are both super low. When a person has too much debt, then some amount of credit score can help a bit, but not overcome the fact that you should stop spending.