2022 Shareholders Meeting announced — August 4th (Split Vote). What do you want to hear/learn?

[Ogre]

In almost exactly 3 months.



This is when shareholders will vote on whether to expand the share count to enable a split (almost certain to pass). Tesla often combines their annual meeting with other events or announcements as well.

I’d like to hear them talk about their brand new 8k Ton Gigapress. I’m sure we’ll hear more about Model Y production and 4680 production ramps.

What do you hope to see announced in August?

 

[JeffnReno]

Hoping for a 20:1 split. Would like to know if or when the 4680 cells will make it to a structural pack in Fremont? Are there any early 4680 Model Y charging and efficiency stats?

 

[Crissa]

1. Hoping for a 20:1 split.
2. Would like to know if or when the 4680 cells will make it to a structural pack in Fremont?
3. Are there any early 4680 Model Y charging and efficiency stats?

1. Hope big! They didn't announce the last until a month before the vote. So we've got a bit of a wait, this year the vote is scheduled for August 4th.
2. So far no plans... Because they don't want to reduce their 2170 output. As those machines wear out, we might see plans in the future; it's all about maximizing kWh output of the factories.
3. No, just some rumors. All the cars are in the hands of employees with NDAs and there's lots of reasons for them to keep any boosted performance quiet so as to not hurt sales of cars from their other factories.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

The real question about Austin is when will production be high enough they start selling cars to consumers. Berlin is already shipping cars to end buyers and has been for a few weeks. They were ahead of Texas but not that far ahead.

I’m not overly worried about spilt math myself.

 

[JeffnReno]

Even if the 4680 info isn't released, when will structural packs be coming out of Fremont? If Berlin can use 2170 cells in a structural pack, Fremont should be able to also. The structural pack is supposed to be another area of cost saving that will either increase profits or lower retail expense to consumers. Either way, I'd like to know as an investor.

 

[Ogre]

Even if the 4680 info isn't released, when will structural packs be coming out of Fremont? If Berlin can use 2170 cells in a structural pack, Fremont should be able to also. The structural pack is supposed to be another area of cost saving that will either increase profits or lower retail expense to consumers. Either way, I'd like to know as an investor.

The “problem” is Tesla has a bit of a glut of 2170 cells at the moment and will very likely have a lot of demand for 4680s in the near future.

We all kind of assumed Tesla would be switching over to 4680s as quickly as possible, but in order to grow as quickly as they want, they need to keep using their existing cell supply. It’s likely they will keep cranking out 2170 based cars for quite some time to come.

They probably won’t bring any new capacity online. But they have enough 2170s for half a million+ cars a year. They will find cars to plug those into one way or the other.

 

[Crissa]

I doubt they will still a lines in Fremont to update them to the new frame until Texas can pick up the slack.

-Crissa

 

[JeffnReno]

The “problem” is Tesla has a bit of a glut of 2170 cells at the moment and will very likely have a lot of demand for 4680s in the near future.

We all kind of assumed Tesla would be switching over to 4680s as quickly as possible, but in order to grow as quickly as they want, they need to keep using their existing cell supply. It’s likely they will keep cranking out 2170 based cars for quite some time to come.

They probably won’t bring any new capacity online. But they have enough 2170s for half a million+ cars a year. They will find cars to plug those into one way or the other.

I have no problem with the 2170 cells and hope they do make sound decisions about their use but since they've touted the new structural manufacturing as cost savings along with the new cells being great, who doesn't want to know more about timelines? Maybe I'm not understanding the reason this thread was started but those are the questions I have.

 

[Ogre]

I have no problem with the 2170 cells and hope they do make sound decisions about their use but since they've touted the new structural manufacturing as cost savings along with the new cells being great, who doesn't want to know more about timelines? Maybe I'm not understanding the reason this thread was started but those are the questions I have.

I sure do!

On the earnings call they did say they were very happy with the cost savings.

This quote from the earnings call suggests they nailed the cost savings.

Drew: (22:16)
Yeah. We’re working in all the areas we shared on battery day and we have consistent progress across all of those areas towards achieving the five year cost trajectory goals for the costs within our control, but we do not control all of the commodity costs, so that’s an exception I need to call out. Similar to Model 3, it will take us several years to get rate and yields to the point where everything that we’ve discussed is achieved. Our priority was on simplicity and scale during our initial 4680 and structural battery ramps and as we attain our manufacturing goals, we will layer in new material technologies we are developing and higher range structural pack revisions.

Elon Musk: (23:02)
I think maybe in a nutshell, I think it probably is fair to say that 4680 and structural pack will be competitive with the best alternatives later this year and we think will exceed the best alternatives next year.

Drew: (23:23)
Yeah. I mean we have some good existing proofs. We’ve built the facility here in Texas, we know how much we spent on capital equipment in the facility, and it’s more than 5x less than prior technology installation, so we’re saving huge on CapEx. On utilities and personnel, we know what those loads are and how many people are needed to run what is basically a highly automized factory, and we have massive reductions in both of those. So the cost model is well understood. It’s really about rate and yield, which will come in time, as Elon said, over the course of this year and next.

Sounds like they focused on cost savings first and are focused on performance goals now and expect them to come soon.

 

[JeffnReno]

I sure do!

On the earnings call they did say they were very happy with the cost savings.

This quote from the earnings call suggests they nailed the cost savings.



Sounds like they focused on cost savings first and are focused on performance goals now and expect them to come soon.

Thanks for taking the time to referience those quotes. Looks like later this year and next will be some exciting times for us.

 

[Ogre]

Here is the source for the transcript. https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/tesla-q1-earnings-call-2022-transcript

That one includes some comments at the end from Rob Maurer of Tesla Daily. I think it’s done digitally so sometimes errors creep in but usually small ones.