New Shepard vs Falcon 9

[FutureBoy]

I found this to be really interesting. Even just to get an idea of size as a proxy of difficulty.

 

[FutureBoy]

I do appreciate that a billionaire gets to take all the joy rides he wants. I just find it interesting that so far the current development level at Blue Origin seems very far behind what is happening at SpaceX.

Not for nothing, but Blue Origin seems to be even further behind SpaceX than the major automakers are behind Tesla.

 

[Ogre]

I'd heard Blue Origin was bidding against SpaceX for some of the NASA projects...

This makes it difficult to fathom how. No wonder Blue Origin wants so much more money, they are expecting NASA to foot the bill for developing their platform while SpaceX has a finished/ self-funded platform.

 

[FutureBoy]

I'd heard Blue Origin was bidding against SpaceX for some of the NASA projects...

This makes it difficult to fathom how. No wonder Blue Origin wants so much more money, they are expecting NASA to foot the bill for developing their platform while SpaceX has a finished/ self-funded platform.

I would have said that you are ascribing intent with your statement

they are expecting NASA to foot the bill for developing their platform

But Bezos himself today said something that rankled many. In an interview just after landing he said

I want to thank every Amazon employee and every Amazon customer because you guys paid for all of this

I can certainly see why people reacted to this. And I think this thinking basically backs up your idea.

This approach is not going to be able to keep up (or frankly just even prevent further fall backs) with what Space X is getting done. And because SpaceX has got their costs down, even if Blue Origin could get some comparable rockets built, the cost structure would still make them unpalatable compared to SpaceX.

There are even other players out there, with much more historical experience. But the way things are going, SpaceX is on track to trounce them all.

 

[Eye of Elon]

I found this to be really interesting. Even just to get an idea of size as a proxy of difficulty.

That's like Ford Lightning vs Cybertruck

 

[Ogre]

I can certainly see why people reacted to this. And I think this thinking basically backs up your idea.

I like to keep half an ear on what's going on with space flight, but Bezos tickling the edge of space doesn't interest me a whole lot. Aside from a very small number of people, this isn't going to advance science or... well much of anything.

One of the podcasts I listen to regularly (Liftoff, it's quite good) was talking about the bidding process for the lunar lander NASA is funding. SpaceX won the bid and Blue Origin protested it. The Blue Origin bid was more than 2x the SpaceX bid from what I recall. It wasn't even close. (Please feel free to correct me on that number, it's off the top of my head).

I have a ton of respect for Bezos... but IMO Bezos is a billionaire because he's a fantastic businessman. Musk... is a weird engineer/ business hacker. Musk seems uniquely suited to engineering. He can attract and retain engineering talent and manage them in a way nobody else can.

I just don't see how Bezos can compete with Musk on this level. Lots of other playing fields, sure.

 

[FutureBoy]

One of the podcasts I listen to regularly (Liftoff, it's quite good) was talking about the bidding process for the lunar lander NASA is funding. SpaceX won the bid and Blue Origin protested it. The Blue Origin bid was more than 2x the SpaceX bid from what I recall. It wasn't even close. (Please feel free to correct me on that number, it's off the top of my head).

I have a ton of respect for Bezos... but IMO Bezos is a billionaire because he's a fantastic businessman. Musk... is a weird engineer/ business hacker. Musk seems uniquely suited to engineering. He can attract and retain engineering talent and manage them in a way nobody else can.

I just don't see how Bezos can compete with Musk on this level. Lots of other playing fields, sure.

Regarding the lunar lander, yes Blue Origin lost. And then protested. Wanted in on the project despite having no real plan and costing way more.

Amazon caused a similar stink in a huge government contract for cloud computing. Microsoft won the contract. Amazon protested. Lost the protest. Amazon sued. Tied the whole thing up in the courts till just a month or so ago. At which point it had been in court so long that the original bids were deemed out of date as the technology had changed so much. So now they are back at square 1. With years wasted, tons of $$ spent in court, and still no infrastructure built out.

In my view, Bezos is getting too whiny and petulant. Sure he has built a great business in Amazon. But now he’s just wreaking havoc on everything around him that doesn’t go his way. I’m losing respect for the guy. And the way he runs Amazon is already controversial so if he loses respect from the public, it wouldn’t surprise me if Amazon ends up in trouble with the government.

 

[JJ_Tex]

In my view, Bezos is getting too whiny and petulant. Sure he has built a great business in Amazon. But now he’s just wreaking havoc on everything around him that doesn’t go his way. I’m losing respect for the guy. And the way he runs Amazon is already controversial so if he loses respect from the public, it wouldn’t surprise me if Amazon ends up in trouble with the government.

Yep, but it made for a good internet yesterday:

https://thechive.com/2021/07/20/jef...e-internet-was-quick-to-ground-him-21-photos/

 

[Crissa]

Blue Origin's New Sheppard is taking a different mission, but they do have a project - the New Glenn - that would be comparable to the Falcon 9.

I don't want to defend the company, because yes, it is behind - it's not as far behind as many companies with working orbital systems. They've created many optimizations and reusability unheard of in the rest of the conventional space industry.

Even Virgin Galactic has pioneered technology which will allow small-sats to be deployed from every nation in the world, at a cheaper price.

The tourism stuff is small potatoes, but it's just an example of what we can do today without needing the backing of the largest superpower in the world. Though the US military was able to do these things sixty years ago, it required alot more money and nearly none of their tech was reusable.

We're on the cusp of a new industrial revolution in space. We'll be able to get fast internet from anywhere on the globe, literally nowhere will be out of our reach.

That's... Really good. Those global connections hopefully will let us handle and examine these global problems.

-Crissa

This... This is the stuff I went to University for. So if you see stars in my eyes, well, the world wasn't ready thirty years ago when I was. But it is now.

 

[Ogre]

I don't want to defend the company, because yes, it is behind - it's not as far behind as many companies with working orbital systems. They've created many optimizations and reusability unheard of in the rest of the conventional space industry.

Totally agree.

Also agree that it's awesome that we finally have a healthy/ growing commercial space industry.

 

[FutureBoy]

so this is interesting…
Starting at 0:28

Blue Origin is trying to build reusable space vehicles.

Yes… SpaceX already got there but we do need options so go for it.

At 0:58

We need to take all polluting industry, all heavy industry, and move it off earth. This is going to take many decades. But that’s what we can do if we have reusable space vehicles.

I heard a comment on this today in an interview by Chris Hayes with Naomi Klein of the University of British Columbia:

Naomi:
“So never underestimate what the super rich will do to escape the impacts of their behaviors. Just look at Jeff Bezos in his cowboy hat, scanning the horizon for his next toxic waste dump. I mean we were told when billionaires went to space they would have some sort of ecological awakening. We didn’t realize they were going to be scouting for new waste dumps.
….
Chris:
Yeah, going up to space, suborbital, about where the Soviet dog Lika went. But coming back and saying, “You know, I had a revelation. We need to pollute up there”.

 

[Ogre]

I heard a comment on this today in an interview by Chris Hayes with Naomi Klein of the University of British Columbia:

This whole topic of manufacturing everything in space is just weird. We can't make steel or concrete in space without first pushing the raw materials to orbit. That's a lot of rocket fuel pushing lots of very heavy materials up and down the mountain. Maybe once we get established on the moon we can find some materials there, but this whole idea doesn't make sense. Even things like cars, how much Lithium is on the moon? Can we extract it?

There is nothing in orbit so we'd need to venture pretty far to chase it down.

 

[FutureBoy]

This whole topic of manufacturing everything in space is just weird. We can't make steel or concrete in space without first pushing the raw materials to orbit. That's a lot of rocket fuel pushing lots of very heavy materials up and down the mountain. Maybe once we get established on the moon we can find some materials there, but this whole idea doesn't make sense. Even things like cars, how much Lithium is on the moon? Can we extract it?

There is nothing in orbit so we'd need to venture pretty far to chase it down.

Plus invent whole new techniques of processing. Most smelting requires oxygen in the atmosphere in order to burn fuel to heat things up. And if it’s done in 0g, how do we get the heat to “rise” from the flames to the materials being smelted… Basically all industrial processes will have similar very basic issues.

 

[Ogre]

Plus invent whole new techniques of processing. Most smelting requires oxygen in the atmosphere in order to burn fuel to heat things up. And if it’s done in 0g, how do we get the heat to “rise” from the flames to the materials being smelted… Basically all industrial processes will have similar very basic issues.

Now:
"We take this perfectly good (air/ water/ ore/ soil/ plant), do this thing to it which turns it into the end product you want, and dump a bunch of toxic shit into the (lake/ river/ mountain/ sky)."

Bezos future world:
"We take this perfectly good (air/ water/ ore/ soil/ plant), put it into a spaceship which pours a bunch of toxic C02 into the atmosphere; do this thing to it which turns it into the end product you want; and dump a bunch of toxic shit into orbit and it rains down on the planet for 1000 years."

Win?

 

[Ogre]

I have a question. Cynical answers only.

Is Musk any better?

The skeptic in me feels like EVs are mostly just neat way to trash everything slightly slower.