Gurule92
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Watch it here! Maybe Elon will let something slip! Lol
Useful input from @cvalue13
Useful input from @cvalue13
Prior to this Q3 investor call, I thought it would be helpful to have these exact quotes on hand from 2023's communications to investors. Underlined emphasis on those pieces relevant to handover event timing.
Note how, in retrospect, so many comments RE Cybertruck are tied to hip of 4680 ramp discussion. Also note how Musk's comments have never been as committal or concrete as later, revisionist, memory recounts here on forum. And finally note, that in all cases Musk has played down any material production in 2023.
2022 Q4 Earning's Call January 25th:
Question: Elon said previously that FSD Hardware 4 will most likely come first in Cybertruck. Is that still the current plan? Do you expect there to be an upgrade path for Hardware 3 cars to Hardware 4? Answered by Musk: "Yes, Cybertruck will have Hardware 4. And to be clear, for 2023, Cybertruck will not be a significant contributor to the bottom line, but it will be [in 2024]. So it's an incredible product. I can't wait to drive it personally."Question: Please provide a detailed explanation of where you are on the 4680 ramp? What are the current roadblocks? And when do you expect to scale to 10,000 vehicles a year -- a week? Answered by Andrew Baglino:
"As far as where we stand, in Texas, one of four lines are in production, with the remaining three in stages of commissioning and install. Really, our 2023 goal as a 4680 team is to deliver a cost-effective ramp of 4680s well ahead of Cybertruck. Focus areas are dialing in and improving the quality of the high-volume supply mechanical parts and driving factory process yields up as much as possible.Between two of those things, if we had achieved those key goals, we'll be well set up to -- for a major 4680 year in 2024."
Question: The next question from investors is, is Cybertruck production still on track for midyear? Answered by Musk and Lars Moravy:
Musk -- "We do expect production to start, I don't know, maybe sometime this summer. But I always like try to downplay the start of production because the start of production is always very slow. It increases exponentially, but it's always very slow at first. So I wouldn't put too much thought in start of production.It's kind of when does volume production actually happen, and that's [2024]."
Lars Moravy -- "Yes, that's right. Like just to emphasize on that, we've started installation of all the production equipment here in Giga Texas, castings, GA, general assembly, body shops. We built all our beta vehicles, some more coming still in the next month, but as you said, the ramp will really come 2024."
Elon Musk -- "Yes, exactly."
Q1 Earning's Call April 19th 2023:
Within Musk's prepared opening remarks:"Regarding the Cybertruck, we continue to build Alpha versions of the Cybertruck on our pilot line for testing purposes. It's a great product, and we're completing the installation of the volume production line at Giga Texas, and we're anticipating having delivery event, a great delivery event probably in Q3.As with all new products, it will follow an S curve, so production starts out slow and then accelerates. So the Cybertruck is no different. So it's -- there's [Indiscernible] amount of demand for the product, obviously. And it is my view, a fantastic product, a hall of famer. But as with all new products, it takes time to get the manufacturing line going. And this is really a very radical product. It's not made in the way that other cars are made."...I want to reiterate the philosophy by which we're operating the business this year. Our approach is to grow volumes as quickly as possible in both our vehicle and energy businesses. We plan to continue to invest heavily into our future plans, which include the Cybertruck next-generation platform .... And we plan to do this while keeping the business financially healthy and industry leading. To accomplish this, we need to remain focused on cost efficiency and working capital and in particular, unwinding the strategic inventory buildup left over from the pandemic."
Question: the next question is, how well are 4680 cells meeting the expectations described on the Battery Day? How long will it be until the cells meet those goals? Answered by Andrew Baglino"... going forward for the rest of the year, the priority, one, is yielding cost for the 4680 program as we steadily ramp production ahead of Cybertruck next year."Question: last question from investors, can you give updated specs and pricing for Cybertruck and any new features that will make it to production? Answered by Musk"Well, I think we'll save that for the Cybertruck handover, which will hopefully be around the end of Q3 this year. And one thing I am confident of saying is that, it's an incredible product, it's a hall of famer, I think. And a product like this only comes once in a long while. So it will not be disappointed at all. It's amazing."
2023 Annual Shareholder Meeting May 16:
Comments by Robin Denholm:"t's our third straight year of having the annual meeting here in Austin at the first meeting the factory was still in the early stages of development with equipment being installed and commissioned during the 2022 meeting production had started to ramp as we produced about 1600 vehicles that week and now less than a year later we have more than tripled the amount having achieved production of 5 000 cars in a single week a huge congratulation to the Texas team and on top of that we are getting ready to roll out our first cyber trucks this exponential trajectory of the gigafactory here in Texas is a reflection of Tesla as a whole."
Comments by Musk:
"So cyber truck is a hard car to make um it's because it's a such a radically new design it actually you can't just use conventional methods of manufacturing we had to invent a whole new set of manufacturing techniques in order to build an exoskeleton based car instead of an endoskeleton based car so it's it's extremely non-trivial to to build the Cyber truck but we're making good progress on that we have the um so so yes so I that that's the thing I when I um in the factory I tour the Cyber Truck Line to see how we're doing there and um and uh sorry for the delay but we're finally going to start delivering production cyber trucks later this year and I think the product if anything is better than expectations all right. I mean cyber truck is the is the car I will be driving on a day-to-day basis"
Question by Investor: once cyber truck is fully ramped in Austin what is the target production? Answered by Musk:"um so I said you know we'll start production later this year we'll start handing over this year there will be an s-curve of production so it'll be slow at first and then and then ramping up and I guess we'll see what the demand is like uh so I mean I think there's we're likely to do probably um a quarter million a year I think maybe more um again very much dependent on on what the demand is like and um and it's it's you know we don't just need to ramp up production but we also needed to um improve the the production cost efficiency so which is going to be also a very very hard thing so but I'd say it's you know a quarter million a year is is a reasonable guess um and it might be 500 000 I don't know but we'll make as many as people want and can afford um and and and and but and then like I said it's going to be hard to make the cost of affordable because it is a new car A new manufacturing method so um in in the grand scheme of things relative to the production rate of all the other cars we make it will be small um but it's still very cool um yeah"Q2 Earning's Call July 19, 2023:
Within Musk's prepared opening remarks:"[W]e continue to build release candidates of the Cybertruck on our final production line in Austin. I'm actually here in Austin at the Gigafactory.This is the first truck that we're aware of that will have four doors over a six-foot bed and fit into a 20-foot garage. So, it's a -- it's sort of biggish on the outside, but it's even bigger on the inside. So, it's a -- that's a -- one of the elements of good design is it should feel bigger on the inside than it looks on the outside. And this is -- this is no small car.But we -- we've -- we really cared about the exterior dimensions of the Cybertruck down to the last millimeter. So, it's just what you're trying to get right in the middle of the Goldilocks zone, not too big, not too small, and then really maximize the -- the utility of the volume. And we can't wait to start delivering it later this year."
Question: What is the status of 4680 cells? How far are you from the specs you laid out on Battery Day? When do you expect to achieve what you laid out on Battery Day? Answered by [unknown/not Musk].".. Here in Texas, we're preparing to launch our Cybertruck cell, which is 10% higher energy density than current production. That was accomplished through process and mechanical design optimization. As we scale cyber cell production through the end of the year and early next, we should be in a comfortable place on cost per cell.Against our battery energy density targets, the cyber cell is at our expectations on a like-for-like electrochemistry basis, where we're yet to integrate silicon or in-house cathode production, both reviewed on Battery Day, which do bring significant further energy density and cost improvements. But that is a topic for another day. Lastly, it is important to remember that most of what we focused on at Battery Day was the Tesla-engineered 4680 production system and the improvements we strove to achieve on equipment, factory density, capital cost, and utility cost reduction, all of which we are realizing in our Texas scale up to date."
Question: When will you -- when will you give more information about the Cybertruck orders, estimated delivery schedules, pricing, and specifications? Answered by Musk:"Demand is so -- so far, off the hook, you can't even see the hook. So, that's really not an issue. I do want to emphasize that the Cybertruck has a lot of new technology in it. Like a lot.It doesn't look like -- it doesn't look like, you know, any other vehicle because it is not like any other vehicle. So -- and the production ramp will move as fast as the slowest and least likely elements of the -- of the entire supply chain and -- and internal production. So, you know, I wouldn't expect, you know -- I hope it's smooth. You know, we're certainly better at production ramps than we -- you know, we've got a lot of experience with the production ramps.But, you know, our first -- our first order approximation is there's like 10,000 unique parts and processes in -- in a -- you know, in the Cybertruck. And if any one of it'll go as fast as the least lucky, you know, at least well-executed element of the 10,000. So, always very difficult to predict the -- the ramp initially, but I think we'll be making them in high volume next year, and we will be delivering the car this year."
Q3 Earning's Call October 18, 2023...
OOOh elon just said "enormous challenges getting to volume production"
Just get to mine and we good elon
A year to 18 months to be cash flow positive contributor
making 100% cybertruck cells!
Only 18 months from initial deliveries to reach volume and prosperity with immense blood sweat and tears.
Would be disappointed if it took 3 years.
Cybertruck has unique complexities and "We dug our own grave with CT"
Next gen car is more conventional and will be easier
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