CleanTechnica — Why Tesla’s Revenue Will Pass Ford’s Within 6 Months

[Ogre]

Really well thought out article from CleanTechnica suggesting Teslas vehicle sales revenue will surpass Ford’s within a year.

Here is the real kicker

The big spike on Ford’s revenue for the previous quarter is due to their Rivian investment windfall and may cause a huge downward spike as it is down considerably. Regardless of whether it reverses or not, the spike up is a one time event while Tesla’s continuing profit growth is accelerating.

Read the article, it’s well put together. He also links a video by the Electric Viking which coincidentally has a similar conclusion.

Personally, I suspect things are only starting to accelerate.


https://cleantechnica.com/2022/04/05/why-teslas-revenue-will-pass-fords-within-6-months/

 

[charliemagpie]

I think watching Tony Seba's future of Energy vids has opened my eyes to how wrong old and trusted traditional professional predictions can be. To farcical level.

The presumption that Ford will grow 10-15%..... HOW ?

Ford has just suffered a big % drop in last qtr. EV's will experience exponential growth.. It is reasonable to predict ICE sales will correspondingly experience a drop. We can see already see the trend, and Fords EV sales aren't saving the day.

What I’d like to see is a comparison taking into account the inevitable DROP in ICE sales. It could be a brutal report.

For example, Tesla will sell 3 million in 2023. Will Ford be selling 3 million ? I don't believe it will.

 

[Ogre]

I think watching Tony Seba's future of Energy vids has opened my eyes to how wrong old and trusted traditional professional predictions can be. To farcical level.

…

The presumption that Ford will grow 10-15%..... HOW ?

Very few media outlets doesn’t do research themselves, they just quote the industry analysts and do back of the napkin math. The CleanTechnica guy does at least a little basic research and number crunching based on the financials.

The industry analysts that end up getting quoted are hired by Ford/ GM for market research. They know if they paint their own customers in a bad light publicly they will be looking for new industries to research in a hurry. So any/ all research they publish won’t show GM/ Ford in a bad light.

What I’d like to see is a comparison taking into account the inevitable DROP in ICE sales. It could be a brutal report.

I think what CleanTechnica does here is fine. If Ford does worse, it just happens quicker.

I tend to agree with you, GM and Ford are not growing and healthy and the number of people unwilling to buy ICE is declining each year.

 

[Sirfun]

I think watching Tony Seba's future of Energy vids has opened my eyes to how wrong old and trusted traditional professional predictions can be. To farcical level.

The presumption that Ford will grow 10-15%..... HOW ?

Ford has just suffered a big % drop in last qtr. EV's will experience exponential growth.. It is reasonable to predict ICE sales will correspondingly experience a drop. We can see already see the trend, and Fords EV sales aren't saving the day.

What I’d like to see is a comparison taking into account the inevitable DROP in ICE sales. It could be a brutal report.

For example, Tesla will sell 3 million in 2023. Will Ford be selling 3 million ? I don't believe it will.

Tesla doesn't need to equal Ford in sales volume to pass them in revenue. Tesla has way better margins. That's just part of Fords problems.

 

[Crissa]

You don't need good margins to have high revenue.

-Crissa

 

[charliemagpie]

Yes very good

I think they can fudge profits by hiding the parts income and shifting expenditures etc , but the gross car sales are open to everybody. We can understand the narrative. Parts/chips etc. This metric I am thinking about, and we can use to track the decisions they make over the next 2-3 years… They will be drastic decisions. We will see it unfolding in a year.

The odd 50% customer preference, as per chart above, is already shot out of the water in e.g. Norway. We are seeing snippets of complete dominance in countries which have the EV volume to compete with ICE.

As an addendum, I have been in business ( as many on here) and we sort of know business and its machinations.

Tesla isn't just your normal run-of-the-mill business thingy we deal with in our life. Tesla is unrelenting. What we see reported is 100% fudge…it's a last bravado act. They are facing a blitzkrieg.

This is a true headline :

The reality is, ICE automakers cannot survive a 30% drop. They won't last 90 days.