Forbes EV market analysis(TSLA beatdown)

[rr6013]

$1.2T valuation gets pummeled

There’s good takeaways inside for perspective. I noticed that FORBES analysis cites incumbent auto mfgrs production equivalence even though VW admits it can’t match Tesla 10hr/car.

So its useful to sharpen your knowlegde against WallSt. PR machine. NeXT was treated no better…until it saved AAPL’s doomed Macintosh.

 

[Ogre]

One thing to keep in mind, TSLA is the most traded stock on the planet by a large margin.

Imagine hundreds of thousands of people trying to predict what the stock is going to do next and rushing to buy and rushing to sell every time there is a big announcement. FOMO dominates here. Fear is amplified.

Not just the underlying, but the options market is massively over traded compared to anything else. Options give people leverage which amplifies profits and losses and impacts the underlying.

Apple was volatile 10 years ago. Tesla is 2-3 times worse. Things that happened to Apple would take months to play out happens in a matter of weeks or days with Tesla.

The best and safest way to invest in Tesla is dollar cost averaging starting 10 years ago… failing that, today. Buy 1 or 2 shares every time you can afford it.

Don’t over-index your investments in one stock. Find some more reliable/ stable stocks to balance Tesla out.

 

[Richard V.]

One thing to keep in mind, TSLA is the most traded stock on the planet by a large margin.

Imagine hundreds of thousands of people trying to predict what the stock is going to do next and rushing to buy and rushing to sell every time there is a big announcement. FOMO dominates here. Fear is amplified.

Not just the underlying, but the options market is massively over traded compared to anything else. Options give people leverage which amplifies profits and losses and impacts the underlying.

Apple was volatile 10 years ago. Tesla is 2-3 times worse. Things that happened to Apple would take months to play out happens in a matter of weeks or days with Tesla.

The best and safest way to invest in Tesla is dollar cost averaging starting 10 years ago… failing that, today. Buy 1 or 2 shares every time you can afford it.

Don’t over-index your investments in one stock. Find some more reliable/ stable stocks to balance Tesla out.

Zac and Jesse indicated that Elon had to sell some of his stocks because of income tax issues.

Check here Tesla Time News - Elon is Selling TSLA?! - YouTube

This is perhaps why it went down.

 

[Crissa]

It's unlikely it was Elon's sale, since no sale was punished (and Twitter doesn't count).

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

It's unlikely it was Elon's sale, since no sale was punished (and Twitter doesn't count).

-Crissa

I beg to differ, a *lot* of sales were punished.

Also, Elon has 2 days to file with the SEC. If he doesn’t do it by tomorrow then heads will likely explode.

UPDATE: Musk filed this evening. Those sales were properly punished.

PS: After Musk’s SEC filing came out shares up instantly in AH trading.

 

[Ogre]

Write up is Nov 5
but
Charts are 2yo out of date.
Tesla sold more lots more than 1000k
and
2 years and maybe 1 year Tesla will sell over 6 Million BEV per year.
Fake News
Forbes allowing a false article is anti Tesla and anti BEV.
Forbes is conning investors.

The chart is ~6 months out of date. But your numbers are pretty far off too.

Right now Tesla’s capacity is a little over 1m cars per year. Calendar 2021 they will ship about 950k and 2022 they are bringing a *lot* more capacity online with Berlin and Texas. But nowhere near 6m/ year for at least 3-4 years.

Musk suggested they are targeting 50% annual growth. That implies 1.5m by end of 2022, 2.25m by end of 2023, 3.5m by end of 2024 and crossing 5m/ year sometime in 2025.

I’m mostly concerned with the end of year 2022 growth myself.

 

[Ogre]

Cracks me up that Forbes did a big think piece on Tesla’s stock getting “Pummeled”. The price was depressed for about 2 days and the dip? Pushed us all the way back to what prices were in mid-October. Devastating.

It’s possible there was more to it than Musk dumping millions of shares on the market in one day and we’ll see more decline in the coming days, but if you were long Tesla for more than a couple weeks this is a tiny glitch.

 

[Ogre]

Forbes responsibility is not to report out of date fake news to the investment public.
Forbes
Forbes fully knows this is false information.
I have seen Forbes anti BEV anti Tesla articles just like this one by Forbes in the past.
Forbes is not to be trusted.

Agree. Not a fan of Forbes. (Note my response prior to this one)

But your numbers were even less accurate than theirs only in the opposite direction. They were off by about 30%, you were off by about 300%.

 

[electricAK]

And yet again, an analyst who completely ignores the non-EV sales part of Tesla's potential. And on top of that, the author selectively used outdated information.

Also not giving Tesla a fair assessment of their battery technologies and growth prospects, which are 10+ years ahead of everyone else.

I bought some TSLA stock this week and I'm in it for the long haul with these particular shares. I believe Tesla is still in the beginning stages of exponential growth. (like buying AMZN in 2014....it grew 10x in the following 6 years) And most importantly, the general investing public is finally starting to realize Tesla's potential and hop onboard. Which will keep adding fuel to the FOMO fire. This is exactly why Tesla will never need a marketing department. They've already changed the world and become a household name, and talking heads on TV won't stop talking about them. It's a self reinforcing growth process for the stock, and I think there is a long way to go still.

I imagine in ten-ish years: Tesla is selling 15million vehicles/year (with very high margins), making massive profits from licensing a mature FSD suite, including selling FSD chips/hardware to other companies, selling green energy to states like Texas and California, and carbon credits to others, and dominating the world's charging infrastructure for all EV's. I also expect Tesla's growth in the Communications/AI/Cloud space takes off, with massive potential.

There are some things that could happen to put a wrench in that narrative, but none of them involve competition from other car manufacturers, or Tesla's total market share of EV's. Just my opinion.

 

[Ogre]

I finally read a bit of it and I regret it.

I want to comment on specific things, but we are all just better off not linking this stuff.

 

[Ogre]

Maybe @DFW is closer to the truth than I thought.



Giga Shanghai is at a current run rate of 850k/ year. That means current run rate for Tesla is closer to 1.5m per year right now. If Texas and Berlin scale this quickly. That would be stunning.

Even conservatively it looks like 500k each for Berlin and Texas by the end of 2022.

So EOY 2022:

Giga Shanghai: 850k (assumes no growth)
Giga Berlin: 500k
Giga Tera Texas: 500k
Fremont: 650k

Total 2.5m

Can easily see them hitting 3.5m vehicles per year by EOY 2023. It’s very anti-languorous. Assuming they can make that many damned batteries. Holy hotdogs.

 

[Crissa]

Fremont is ramping up to target a higher rate, too, which is crazy with Austin coming on line, but they're selling every car out the door even as they raise their prices.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

Fremont is ramping up to target a higher rate, too, which is crazy with Austin coming on line, but they're selling every car out the door even as they raise their prices.

-Crissa

For some reason I thought Giga Shanghai was only 1 year old. It’s taken them 2 years to get up to this speed so likely the above numbers are generous.

But definitely shows what these Gigafactories are going to be cranking out once they are up to speed.

 

[Richard V.]

Maybe @DFW is closer to the truth than I thought.



Giga Shanghai is at a current run rate of 850k/ year. That means current run rate for Tesla is closer to 1.5m per year right now. If Texas and Berlin scale this quickly. That would be stunning.

Even conservatively it looks like 500k each for Berlin and Texas by the end of 2022.

So EOY 2022:

Giga Shanghai: 850k (assumes no growth)
Giga Berlin: 500k
Giga Tera Texas: 500k
Fremont: 650k

Total 2.5m

Can easily see them hitting 3.5m vehicles per year by EOY 2023. It’s very anti-languorous. Assuming they can make that many damned batteries. Holy hotdogs.

Solving the battery problem right here: The "machine factory" in Canada that makes the machines for making lots of 4680 battery cells in Gigafactories around the world. | Tesla Cybertruck Forum & Owners Club - Cybertruckownersclub.com | News & Discussions
Ref: Why Tesla VERY QUIETLY Expanding in Canada - YouTube

 

[Ogre]

Factories that build factories that build batteries used to build bots that build cars.

That aboot sums it up. (Soory if I got that wrong. Canadian is a second language)