Rivian IPO

[FutureBoy]

Rivian files for IPO, $80 billion target is 350 times Tesla's IPO valuation

BENGT HALVORSON AUGUST 27, 2021

The electric vehicle maker Rivian has confirmed that it is planning to pursue an initial public offering (IPO) this fall, aiming for a valuation roughly 350 times that of Tesla’s IPO in 2010.
Rivian disclosed Friday that it has submitted its S-1 registration to the U.S. SEC. Bloomberg noted that Rivian would seek roughly an $80 billion valuation, citing sources who asked not to be identified. Rivian noted that the IPO will occur after an SEC review, but Bloomberg noted its sources said the company would like to do a IPO around Thanksgiving (Nov. 25).



Rivian Amazon electric delivery truck

As such, the IPO will almost surely come after Rivian’s first deliveries of its R1T electric pickup and R1S electric SUV to individual customers, expected in September. Rivian also builds an electric van for Amazon.

The traditional IPO sets Rivian apart from other EV startups such as Canoo, Nikola, Lordstown Motors, Fisker, and most recently Lucid. All of those other electric vehicle startups have taken the SPAC (special purpose acquisition company) path to an IPO by combining with a company that’s already traded, and sometimes created for that purpose.
A traditional IPO also sets up Rivian for higher scrutiny, but it could quickly earn a spot as a long-term buy. Rivian has already attracted about $10.5 billion from high profile backers, including Ford and Amazon. The company closed on $2.5 billion funding round in July coordinated with the announcement that in addition to ramping up its Illinois plant, it plans a second factory. Earlier in the year, Rivian was seeking a $50 billion IPO, Bloomberg reported, so the new plan is scaled-up.


Rivian CEO and founder RJ Scaringe

The IPO and valuation potentially make Rivian a formidable rival to Tesla, led by its straightforward, no-drama CEO and founder RJ Scaringe. It could become another strong U.S.-based independent automaker that will keep growing.
Tesla went the traditional IPO path, too, in 2010, when it had only delivered the Roadster and the Model S was under development. Tesla’s $465 million in DOE loans dwarfed the $226 million raised by its IPO, despite Elon Musk describing Tesla as a "friggin' technology velociraptor" and the cars to come as "frickin' badass."
Analysts widely anticipated Tesla wouldn’t remain independent, with chances of survival slim. But today that company has a market cap of more than $700 billion. Oh, how times have changed.

 

[FutureBoy]

I wasn't watching Telsa much back in 2010 as I didn't have the $$ to buy one.

Rivian being owned by Amazon seems like the company could (relatively) easily make it to profitability without needed an IPO. But I wonder if they have the velocity to be able to catch up to Tesla. Selling EV delivery vans to Amazon is a built-in market but that market is nowhere near the market of a Tesla M3 or MY. And even once the Rivian R1T starts shipping, I wonder if they will be able to produce them as fast as Tesla will be producing CT's.

I really do root for Rivian. It would be great to have some real competition in the market. But I will be crossing my fingers for a long while in hopes of Rivian's success. It may be quite a few years before we can be sure Rivian will be sticking around.

And I will be very curious to see how Wall Street responds to Rivian as compared to Tesla.

And if Rivian fails, will Jeff (Jeff who?) sue Tesla over the failure?

 

[Diehard]

I wasn't watching Telsa much back in 2010 as I didn't have the $$ to buy one.

Rivian being owned by Amazon seems like the company could (relatively) easily make it to profitability without needed an IPO. But I wonder if they have the velocity to be able to catch up to Tesla. Selling EV delivery vans to Amazon is a built-in market but that market is nowhere near the market of a Tesla M3 or MY. And even once the Rivian R1T starts shipping, I wonder if they will be able to produce them as fast as Tesla will be producing CT's.

I really do root for Rivian. It would be great to have some real competition in the market. But I will be crossing my fingers for a long while in hopes of Rivian's success. It may be quite a few years before we can be sure Rivian will be sticking around.

And I will be very curious to see how Wall Street responds to Rivian as compared to Tesla.

And if Rivian fails, will Jeff (Jeff who?) sue Tesla over the failure?

I wonder how Rivian shorts compare to Tesla shorts. It is a different world today. Rivian does not have to worry about if people will buy electric cars. They just have to worry about making and selling cars profitably, which from what I hear is a mighty difficult thing to do. I cross my fingers they succeed but I don’t expect Tesla kinda of gains for their stock if they do.

 

[DarinCT]

I should get in on this for no other reason than people believe. They believe in Ford, in Amazon, and that EV is a growth market. I hate to say it but stonks >> EBITDA. The market is an 800 pound gorilla with too much RedBull.

 

[Eye of Elon]

I wasn't watching Telsa much back in 2010 as I didn't have the $$ to buy one.

Rivian being owned by Amazon seems like the company could (relatively) easily make it to profitability without needed an IPO. But I wonder if they have the velocity to be able to catch up to Tesla. Selling EV delivery vans to Amazon is a built-in market but that market is nowhere near the market of a Tesla M3 or MY. And even once the Rivian R1T starts shipping, I wonder if they will be able to produce them as fast as Tesla will be producing CT's.

I really do root for Rivian. It would be great to have some real competition in the market. But I will be crossing my fingers for a long while in hopes of Rivian's success. It may be quite a few years before we can be sure Rivian will be sticking around.

And I will be very curious to see how Wall Street responds to Rivian as compared to Tesla.

And if Rivian fails, will Jeff (Jeff who?) sue Tesla over the failure?

Jeff will probably sue SpaceX.

 

[jerhenderson]

A ridiculous target for a company that hasn't delivered a single vehicle yet and has theoretically 30k preorders ?

 

[anionic1]

I wasn't watching Telsa much back in 2010 as I didn't have the $$ to buy one.

Rivian being owned by Amazon seems like the company could (relatively) easily make it to profitability without needed an IPO. But I wonder if they have the velocity to be able to catch up to Tesla. Selling EV delivery vans to Amazon is a built-in market but that market is nowhere near the market of a Tesla M3 or MY. And even once the Rivian R1T starts shipping, I wonder if they will be able to produce them as fast as Tesla will be producing CT's.

I really do root for Rivian. It would be great to have some real competition in the market. But I will be crossing my fingers for a long while in hopes of Rivian's success. It may be quite a few years before we can be sure Rivian will be sticking around.

And I will be very curious to see how Wall Street responds to Rivian as compared to Tesla.

And if Rivian fails, will Jeff (Jeff who?) sue Tesla over the failure?

My first thought is from recent polls that I have seen, Rivian doesn’t rank very high among desired EVs (I think I will coin the abbreviation ET for electric truck if it hadn’t been done yet). And even if it’s first to market it’s a $67,500 base cost. Now, I get that the average new vehicle cost is around $45k (sorry kids and next generation I guess you may not ever afford a new car) but $67,500 is a lot of dough. Plus sales tax and other fees. You put down $10k and that’s a $1100 monthly payment. Come up with half to put down and you are still around $700 per month.

The rule of thumb use to be spend about 25% of your annual income on a car purchase. Using that logic and assuming 10% tax one would need to be making close to $300k to “afford” that purchase. I myself have been saving and I see that there are those folks out there with 3 Tesla’s already and 5 power wall and they are super excited to add the trimotor CT to their collection, but in reality how many people are ready to buy a $67,500 ET.

I think Rivian will sell all they can make for maybe a year but once the lower priced lightning and CT come out they are going to be struggling.

 

[anionic1]

A ridiculous target for a company that hasn't delivered a single vehicle yet and has theoretically 30k preorders ?

I wonder if they want to go public just in case the truck flops. All the leadership can sell off their stock and walk away with millions while the company folds.

 

[jerhenderson]

My first thought is from recent polls that I have seen, Rivian doesn’t rank very high among desired EVs (I think I will coin the abbreviation ET for electric truck if it hadn’t been done yet). And even if it’s first to market it’s a $67,500 base cost. Now, I get that the average new vehicle cost is around $45k (sorry kids and next generation I guess you may not ever afford a new car) but $67,500 is a lot of dough. Plus sales tax and other fees. You put down $10k and that’s a $1100 monthly payment. Come up with half to put down and you are still around $700 per month.

The rule of thumb use to be spend about 25% of your annual income on a car purchase. Using that logic and assuming 10% tax one would need to be making close to $300k to “afford” that purchase. I myself have been saving and I see that there are those folks out there with 3 Tesla’s already and 5 power wall and they are super excited to add the trimotor CT to their collection, but in reality how many people are ready to buy a $67,500 ET.

I think Rivian will sell all they can make for maybe a year but once the lower priced lightning and CT come out they are going to be struggling.

First to market or not, I won't get a Rivian - I don't like how it looks or it's specs.

 

[jerhenderson]

I wonder if they want to go public just in case the truck flops. All the leadership can sell off their stock and walk away with millions while the company folds.

Probably.

 

[Crissa]

A ridiculous target for a company that hasn't delivered a single vehicle yet and has theoretically 30k preorders ?

It has delivered lots of commercial demo vehicles, though.

I say good luck to them, but they probably should wait for their trucks to arrive in people's driveways.

-Crissa

 

[Diehard]

My first thought is from recent polls that I have seen, Rivian doesn’t rank very high among desired EVs (I think I will coin the abbreviation ET for electric truck if it hadn’t been done yet). And even if it’s first to market it’s a $67,500 base cost. Now, I get that the average new vehicle cost is around $45k (sorry kids and next generation I guess you may not ever afford a new car) but $67,500 is a lot of dough. Plus sales tax and other fees. You put down $10k and that’s a $1100 monthly payment. Come up with half to put down and you are still around $700 per month.

The rule of thumb use to be spend about 25% of your annual income on a car purchase. Using that logic and assuming 10% tax one would need to be making close to $300k to “afford” that purchase. I myself have been saving and I see that there are those folks out there with 3 Tesla’s already and 5 power wall and they are super excited to add the trimotor CT to their collection, but in reality how many people are ready to buy a $67,500 ET.

I think Rivian will sell all they can make for maybe a year but once the lower priced lightning and CT come out they are going to be struggling.

Something to consider is that Rivian has the higher reservation deposit than CT and F150 so they may have lower reservations but their reservation holders may be more committed to buying. I agree that lower priced Ford and Tesla will be much more popular but at this point both CT1 and Lightening Pro are a pie in the Sky. For the same reason that CT1 and CT2 have not stopped people to reserve CT3, I don’t think lower price competition with lower specs is going to be as much of a problem. By the time they can be produced in volume, Rivian will have their own lower price, low spec vehicles. I personally think of R1T more as a toy like Jeep than a Truck so I don’t think it is competing with CT or F150. R1S on the other hand is a much more practical vehicle and if they come up with a lower price lower spec version and 12K rebate come to life, it is going to sell like hot cakes.

New trucks and SUVs in general and EVs specifically are expensive. All the vehicles I have reservation for are priced multiple of the highest I have ever paid for any vehicle but I don’t see anyone making any EVs that does not sell, especially low volume more expensive ones. Roadster was $112K and Tesla sold 2,450 units. Initial high price, low volume is not indication of failure. I don’t see anyone else (even Tesla) producing anything with Rivian Specs for much cheaper. CT3 is the same price, Hummer much more expensive.

I have no doubt there will be struggling for any new company no matter how much financial backing they have. And EVs are not a best kept secret anymore so I doubt many will get rich off of Rivian stock even if it succeed. But I hope they can raise enough money out of IPO to be able to move forward and expand. American companies making EVs need as much support as possible to have a chance against foreign competition.

 

[jerhenderson]

It has delivered lots of commercial demo vehicles, though.

I say good luck to them, but they probably should wait for their trucks to arrive in people's driveways.

-Crissa

Indeed I hope they succeed as multiple players are needed, however some sanity in valuation is needed for a company yet to deliver a customer vehicle or even a decent % of its Amazon delivery vans.

 

[Ogre]

An IPO is a way for a company to raise money.

Also, it's a way for people who have equity to cash out.

The fact that they have a guaranteed commercial client in Amazon is what makes this company interesting.

 

[kev12345]

IPO hype will pump the stock initially. It'll drop off a cliff to reality soon after. Rivian is the real deal. just not 80b right now.