Robotaxi is an aircraft IMO

[Dids]

I really don't care for the rotating prop head or nacelles.

Yes tilt rotor is frightening ala osprey. At least Joby machine has more rotor... They have FAA airworthiness. So it's real.

I'm long $JOBY

 

[Crissa]

https://www.jobyaviation.com/

They just bought the old Plantronics plant kitty corner from our Costco. It's looking good.

-Crissa

 

[Dids]

They just bought the old Plantronics plant kitty corner from our Costco. It's looking good.

-Crissa

They claim the craft is as quiet as a conversation.... Can u go hang out at Costco and film it and see if it is that quiet? Just 1/2 kidding ....

 

[Bill906]

Just 1/2 kidding

 

[Crissa]

They claim the craft is as quiet as a conversation.... Can u go hang out at Costco and film it and see if it is that quiet? Just 1/2 kidding ....

They can't fly it there. But they do fly it down by Watsonville.

-Crissa

 

[firsttruck]

https://www.jobyaviation.com/

Even in perfect weather the 7 minutes they depict for the trip does not include boarding procedures (body scan xray, shoes off and bomb sniffing, search of brief/laptop case & backpack, etc), flight clearance, etc.

eVTOL might be might be practical in southern California or Las Vegas or Phoenix but in NYC wouldn't The Boring Company tunnel & Tesla EVs be a better way to get from downtown to JFK airport. Much safer, usable 365 days of year and maybe cheaper in the long-term.

 

[JBee]

Even in perfect weather the 7 minutes they depict for the trip does not include boarding procedures (body scan xray, shoes off and bomb sniffing, search of brief/laptop case & backpack, etc), flight clearance, etc.

eVTOL might be might be practical in southern California or Las Vegas or Phoenix but in NYC wouldn't The Boring Company tunnel & Tesla EVs be a better way to get from downtown to JFK airport. Much safer, usable 365 days of year and maybe cheaper in the long-term.

Why all the security if it's just you onboard the air taxi?

 

[Dids]

Even in perfect weather the 7 minutes they depict for the trip does not include boarding procedures (body scan xray, shoes off and bomb sniffing, search of brief/laptop case & backpack, etc), flight clearance, etc.

eVTOL might be might be practical in southern California or Las Vegas or Phoenix but in NYC wouldn't The Boring Company tunnel & Tesla EVs be a better way to get from downtown to JFK airport. Much safer, usable 365 days of year and maybe cheaper in the long-term.

The cheapest miles are air miles so I don't think building tunnels will lead to cheaper miles.
Why do you think NYC is unique? Density?
Airspace is huge, roads take diffused people and funnel them along narrow arteries, air space takes diffused people and delivers them to diffused locations via a space that is larger in 3 dimensions than the diffusion level at the surface.
Air taxi would have a certain vertical altitude before any horizontal travel is allowed and direction of travel would determine flight altitude causing low incidence of path intrusion.

 

[Crissa]

Even in perfect weather the 7 minutes they depict for the trip does not include boarding procedures (body scan xray, shoes off and bomb sniffing, search of brief/laptop case & backpack, etc), flight clearance, etc.

You don't have to do that for general aviation.

And automated flight paths would take care of clearance.

Yes, tunnels are better in really crowded spaces, but the more places you go to and the lower the traffic the better a flight mode is.

Automated flight can deal with weather better than human piloted flight.

I still don't think it'll really go anywhere, as a system, but there are places for it.

The cheapest miles are air miles so I don't think building tunnels will lead to cheaper miles.

You have to divide the path by the trips taken. That's where tunnels shine.

-Crissa

 

[Dids]

You don't have to do that for general aviation.

And automated flight paths would take care of clearance.

Yes, tunnels are better in really crowded spaces, but the more places you go to and the lower the traffic the better a flight mode is.

Automated flight can deal with weather better than human piloted flight.

I still don't think it'll really go anywhere, as a system, but there are places for it.



You have to divide the path by the trips taken. That's where tunnels shine.

-Crissa

Really though? Lincoln tunnel is 1.5 miles long. It has a $16.00 toll for passenger cars. Its an old tunnel so either maintenance costs a tremendous amount or they shift money elsewhere. Evtol expected to cost ~0.89 /mile and 22 of that is pilot.

 

[Crissa]

Really though? Lincoln tunnel is 1.5 miles long. It has a $16.00 toll for passenger cars. Its an old tunnel so either maintenance costs a tremendous amount or they shift money elsewhere. Evtol expected to cost ~0.89 /mile and 22 of that is pilot.

You think the retail cost is related to operating cost?

https://www.nj.com/news/2017/12/gwb_jfk_and_ewr_bring_home_the_port_authority_baco.html

the Lincoln Tunnel's gross revenues for 2018 are projected to be $237 million, with a net income figure of $173.4 million after expenses

And this is the port authority, which isn't exactly limited in their pricing power.

Tunnels also carry alot more people and cargo than air can.

-Crissa

 

[firsttruck]

.....
Why do you think NYC is unique?

Not just NYC but cities with many tall buildings and that experience frequent poor weather. Many large cities in Northeast & Midwest (ie. Chicago), San Francisco, Seattle.
General weather in NYC compared to southern California and general U.S. southwest.

Even smaller commercial fixed wing aircraft can operate safely in some pretty severe weather. Cessna size and smaller aircraft not so much.

What kind of de-icing system will eVTOL have?

How safe will eVTOL transition from vertical flight to horizontal be when there is wind & rain, snow, sleet, downdrafts, choppy air, turbulence, wind shear, etc?

When around airports that service larger aircraft, avoiding wake turbulence & wake vortices from all the larger aircraft including small commercial jets.

These eVTOLs for urban air taxis are very small aircraft. How will air taxi customers respond (feel) when they experience downdrafts, choppy air, turbulence, etc?

Small eVTOLs are going to be much more susceptible to being grounded because of weather conditions. Lesser weather conditions that the commercial jets at JFK and other larger airport can handle will ground eVTOLs.

There will be many times where the weather is marginal for operation of small eVTOL but have no impact of the commercial jets landing at the large airports.

Might be common occurrence to have situation where the commercial flight you booked took off on time but you could not get to the airport because the weather was just bad enough to ground the small eVTOL.

Small eVTOL air taxis might be relatively safe for travel between suburban/rural areas but high volume of flights from urban downtowns to airports with large volume of medium to large aircraft will be much more risky.


---------------------------------------------

Why Hybrid-Electric Aircraft Will Lead the Way in VTOL
Nov 27, 2020
by Saleem Zaheer

.....
2. Operations in bad weather will pose challenges. It is likely that battery-only e-VTOL flights will be restricted to VFR (good weather only), at least initially. This will be especially true if icing conditions are present, as significant electrical power needs to be extracted for de/anti-icing. Given slim reserves of electrical power to begin with, this could greatly reduce useability in many large urban areas prone to bad weather, restricting e-VTOL deployment to cities with fair weather conditions. Further, operations of these very light e-VTOL aircraft in dense cities with high-rises, under poor visibility, low clouds, thunderstorms, ice, rain, and erratic wind patterns between tall structures are likely to pose significant challenges.

---------------------------------------------

Which U.S. airports see the most weather delays?
By Jesus Jimenez
Nov 20, 2018
https://www.dallasnews.com/news/weather/2018/11/20/which-u-s-airports-see-the-most-weather-delays/

1. San Francisco International Airport It's surprising for a city known for having near-perfect weather to top the list. In San Francisco, it's not severe storms or snow that delays flights, but fog and low clouds.

2. Newark Liberty International Airport If you're flying out of Newark, there's a 2 in 3 chance your flight will be delayed because of weather, according to The Weather Channel. Snow, low clouds, fog, wind and thunderstorms are culprits for weather delays at Newark.

3. Chicago O'Hare International Airport It makes sense that a city dubbed the Windy City would appear on this list. But Chicago also gets a lot of snow that results in weather delays. On average the city gets snow 28 days a year, according to The Weather Channel.

4. New York LaGuardia Airport LaGuardia gets it all — snow, low clouds, fog, wind and thunderstorms.

5. Denver International Airport Snowstorms are one of the biggest factors contributing to weather delays in Denver. But the city also gets thunderstorms in the spring and into the summer.

6. Philadelphia International Airport Philadelphia gets measurable snow 12 to 13 days a year and thunderstorms 27 days a year, according to The Weather Channel. Low clouds and fog also contribute to weather delays.

7. Boston Logan International Airport Snow is a main contributor to delays in Boston, but the city's airport is also the windiest major airport in the U.S., according to The Weather Channel.

8. George Bush Intercontinental Airport In Houston, it's thunderstorms that delay many flights at George Bush Intercontinental. The Weather Channel reports that Houston's metro area sees thunderstorms an average of 62 days a year.

9. John F. Kennedy International Airport With Newark and LaGuardia on the list, it makes sense that JFK would appear as well. Like the New York City metro area's other airports, JFK is delayed by snow, low clouds, fog, wind and thunderstorms.

10. Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport The Atlanta area gets thunderstorms about 50 days a year, according to The Weather Channel. These storms are the main factor for weather delays at one of the world's busiest airports.

---------------------------------------------

U.S. FAA FAQ: Weather Delay
https://www.faa.gov/nextgen/programs/weather/faq

.....
What is the largest cause of delay in the National Airspace System?
The largest cause of air traffic delay in the National Airspace System is the weather. The pie chart shows that weather caused 75.48 percent of system-impacting delays of greater than 15 minutes over the six years from June 2017 to May 2022, as recorded in the OPSNET standard "delay by cause" reports.

.....
Which airports have the worst weather-related delay?
Two of the biggest airports in the New York City area (Newark and LaGuardia) is the highest in the country, with more than 66,000 significant delays of more than 15 minutes in 2019. The other top delay airports are in Chicago (nearly 29,000 delays in 2019), San Francisco (almost 26,000), Boston (nearly 15,000), and Seattle (nearly 11,000).


---------------------------------------------

U.S. FAA - Safety of Flight Wake Turbulence
Section 4. Wake Turbulence & wake vortices
https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/atpubs/aim_html/chap7_section_4.html

.....
It is more difficult for aircraft with short wingspan (relative to the generating aircraft) to counter the imposed roll induced by vortex flow. Pilots of short span aircraft, even of the high performance type, must be especially alert to vortex encounters. (See FIG 7-4-2.)


---------------------------------------------


Wake turbulence
revised in November 2022
By Civil Aviation Authority of New Zealand
https://www.aviation.govt.nz/assets/publications/gaps/wake-turbulence.pdf

.....
The most dangerous situation is when a small aircraft flies directly into the wake of a larger aircraft. This usually occurs while flying beneath the flight path of the larger aircraft. Flight tests conducted in this situation have shown that it is not uncommon for severe rolling motions to occur with loss of control. In other instances, if the aircraft is flown between the vortices, high roll rates can coincide with very high sink rates in excess of 1000 feet per minute. Depending on the altitude, the outcome could be tragic.

.....

.....
Helicopters Depending on the size of the helicopter, significant wake turbulence can be generated. Helicopter wakes may be of significantly greater strength than those from fixed-wing aircraft of similar weight. The strongest wake turbulence can occur when the helicopter is operating at lower speeds (20 to 50 knots). Some mid-size or executive-class helicopters, including the Royal New Zealand Air Force’s NH90s, produce wake turbulence as strong as that of heavier helicopters. The majority of accidents that involve helicopters and small aircraft occur when small aircraft are taking off or landing while helicopters are hovering near the runway or flying in the circuit traffic pattern.

---------------------------------------------

Evaluating Wind Flow Around Buildings on Heliport Placement
Final Report Sept. 1983 through Aug. 1984 14.
Sponsoring Agency Code APM-720
https://www.tc.faa.gov/its/worldpac/techrpt/pm84-25.pdf

Abstract
This report presents a heliport wind assessment methodology for evaluating and potentially minimizing the influences of building-induced wind on heliport operations. Descriptions and illustrations of wind flow patterns and characteristics for both isolated and multiple building configurations are provided to assist heliport planners, operators, and helicopter pilots in understanding the problems associated with building-induced winds. Based on geometric flow patterns, general guidelines for ground level and rooftop heliport placement are provided. Additional guidelines for determining the area of wind influence about isolated and multiple build.ing configurations are detailed. Rules for calculating the distance from the sides of buildings for heliport siting is provided, as well as, rules for calculating the area of influence from any wind direction. Lastly, rules are defined for calculating the area of influence of, buildings with respect to the prevailing climatic wind conditions. Recommendations are delineated for further data gathering and evaluation to validate and enhance the heliport wind assessment methodology

---------------------------------------------

The problem with the skyscraper wind effect
Published 9 July 2015
By Justin Parkinson, BBC News Magazine
https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-33426889

---------------------------------------------

 

[firsttruck]

Yes tilt rotor is frightening ala osprey. At least Joby machine has more rotor... They have FAA airworthiness. So it's real.

I'm long $JOBY

Maybe not so real.

Joby has a Military airworthiness certificate. They do not yet have a FAA commercial airworthiness.
Military airworthiness has a lot of exemptions, differences in specifications and allowed operating theaters (ie. not over densely populated areas).
There is no guarantee that a Military airworthiness will result in FAA commercial airworthiness.

Even military aircraft that have been made for decades, had thousand produced and thousands of accident free hours of operation can be denied FAA commercial airworthiness.

Will Joby be able to fly in non-VFR conditions and like heavy rain, snow, sleet, icing, moderate high winds. What tests have been done in non-ideal weather?

------------------------------------------

Surplus MILITARY AIRCRAFT A Briefing for Prospective Buyers
AC 20-96
https://www.faa.gov/documentLibrary/media/Advisory_Circular/ac20-96.pdf

1. CAN YOU CERTIFICATE IT?
Many surplus military aircraft do not conform to any existing civilian type certificate, and some can never be made to conform, regardless of the effort and money expended to modify the aircraft. Department of Defense (DOD) does not represent or guarantee that surplus aircraft offered for sale can be certificated as civil aircraft.

.....
Before you can obtain an airworthiness certificate for any ex-military aircraft you-not FAA, not the military, not the people who actually sold you the airplane, but you-must obtain an FAA type certificate (FAA type design approval) or be able to show that the aircraft conforms to an existing civilian model which has an FAA type certificate; and you must prove that it is in a condition for safe operation (airworthy).

Depending on the model and history of the aircraft you acquire, this process could be relatively simple, involving only a few days of your time, or it could be extremely complicated, lasting months or even years, and very expensive. The road to certification is not exactly paved

------------------------------------------

 

[firsttruck]

....
Evtol expected to cost ~0.89 /mile and 22 of that is pilot.

Even if there was no human pilot I highly doubt eVTOL costs will be anywhere close to be as low as 0.89/mile.

Today autos with owner as driver is 0.50 - .070 / mile.
ARK Invest and Tesla project costs for Robotaxi & FSD at ~.20/mile

If you take out battery replacement cost the estimate for eVTOL is $2-$5/mile.


------------------------------------------------


How Much Will It Cost to Fly on eVTOL Air Taxis?
Electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft are years away from entering service, but the discussion is already under way about passenger prices.
By Thom Patterson October 22, 2021
https://www.flyingmag.com/evtol-air-taxi-passenger-prices/

------------------------------------------------

Here’s why Uber thinks eVTOL air taxis will be affordable
By Elan Head | June 13, 2019
https://verticalmag.com/news/why-uber-thinks-evtol-air-taxis-will-be-affordable/

.....
According to Moore, eVTOL aircraft offer “fantastic” savings in maintenance and energy costs, which are the two largest cost drivers for helicopters. Keeping hourly operating costs to $700 or less will be key to Uber’s vision of making rides on Uber Air affordable for the masses — competitive with the price of an Uber X or Uber Pool ride today. That’s a goal that Moore described as “very realistic.”

.....
Not only can electric motors be started and stopped almost instantaneously, eliminating the need to idle, the costs to maintain and replace them are much lower than for a turbine engine. Other critical parts that drive up maintenance costs on helicopters are likewise eliminated on eVTOL aircraft. Uber estimates that total hourly maintenance costs on its eVTOL air taxis will be just $112 per flight hour.

.....
Uber expects direct energy costs for its air taxis to come in at just $21 per flight hour. However, the company also anticipates that certified aerospace-grade batteries will cost 4.1 times as much as automotive batteries. “You’ve got to be honest — these batteries are expensive; you’ve got to amortize them as part of the cost,” Moore said. Uber estimates that amortized battery cost will be $76 to $90 per flight hour, assuming a battery salvage value of $50 per kilowatt hour.

.....
As for acquisition costs, Moore noted that conventional helicopters have exceptionally high acquisition costs per pound of empty weight: $700 to $1,100, which is comparable to the figures for commercial jets ($900 to $1,100) and much higher than those for general aviation (GA) airplanes ($200 to $300). This is due in part to very low production rates (Uber estimates that only 1,367 helicopters are produced annually, along with 2,262 GA airplanes and 1,641 commercial jets).

In the early stages of eVTOL manufacturing, high development costs will be amortized over several years of low-rate production, yielding acquisition costs in line with those of light aircraft today.

“As we get to 10,000 units per year, which we think is very reasonable by 2030, and we get those economies of scale; high-volume production of these non-critical components — that’s when we can get that cost savings and get these vehicles under $1 million a piece,” he said.

------------------------------------------------


Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 44.: eVTOL operating costs.
By Bjorn Fehrm.
November 4, 2022, ©. Leeham
https://leehamnews.com/2022/11/04/b...-air-transport-part-44-evtol-operating-costs/

.....
We used the model to analyze the energy, crew, maintenance, airport, underway, and capital costs. The total cost for a typical city-to-airport feeder mission of 30 minutes, including procedures, would be just over $200.


------------------------------------------------

 

[Dids]

You think the retail cost is related to operating cost?

https://www.nj.com/news/2017/12/gwb_jfk_and_ewr_bring_home_the_port_authority_baco.html

And this is the port authority, which isn't exactly limited in their pricing power.

Tunnels also carry alot more people and cargo than air can.

-Crissa

I do not... But tunnels are expensive to build and all roads are expensive to maintain. Yes they are totally necessary but those costs have to be absorbed in the cost of the system.
When you say they carry more than air can are you including the possibility of evtol?